For the second time in a week, the Edmonton Oilers are kicking off the weekend with a 2 PM start at home. Only this time around, instead of squaring off against the division-leading Golden Knights, our boys are welcoming the San Jose Sharks to town for the first meeting of the season.
I don’t ever want to assume a win is in the bag — every NHL team has a chance to win on any given night — but the Oilers have to win this afternoon’s contest against the Sharks. Not only do the Sharks stink, but they’re also sitting firmly in last place in the Pacific Division and at a stage of their rebuild where a Cup contender like the Oilers should be able to walk through them. That’s always easier said than done, but I also believe it to be true.
That said, we’ve also seen the Oilers duff games like these plenty of times. We’ve seen more than a few examples of “sure thing” wins ending up as losses for whatever reason, but it’s often because the Oilers play down to their opponent. That can’t happen today. Even though the Sharks are dead last in the Pacific Division, they still have plenty of up-and-coming offensive stars who will burn anyone if given enough time and space.
Of course, the Oilers will be fine if they come out and play their game instead of farting around with highlight-reel play attempts. The Sharks won’t be able to handle Edmonton’s skill or depth if they hit them with the simple style that’s made them effective over the last month, but the trick will be making sure that happens for 60 minutes. As we saw on Thursday against the Bruins, taking a period off puts the ship at serious risk of sinking, and the boys were lucky that they were able to get through that one with a win.
Looking ahead at the Sharks, don’t you think it would be easier if the boys started on time? By no means are they having the slow start issues we’ve seen in seasons past, but getting right to it today will go a long way toward putting San Jose back on their heels. A different way to look at it would be to say that there’s no way in hell that the Sharks could claw their way back into a game that the Oilers are dominating from Jump Street. It wouldn’t happen.
That said, I also understand there’s a reasonable chance this game is a trap. No matter how good the Oilers get or how many games they win, there are always a few games on the schedule that wind up as unhittable curveballs. That’s part of what makes playing against rebuilding teams so dangerous. Sure, they stink most of the time, but every now and then, there are games when they pop six goals, and you wonder what the hell just happened.
I don’t think one of those bottom-feeder losses will happen this afternoon — I actually think the Oilers will stomp them — but you can never be too confident in this situation. If Edmonton plays its game, the boys will be fine. Let’s hope everyone in the room is thinking about the task at hand, and not what’s coming up 48 hours from now when they’re on the Christmas break. We still have two games left until the break, Nation, and here’s hoping we kick off a busy weekend with a win.
Let’s see what the numbers say…
THE NUMBERS
OILERS | SHARKS | |
RECORD | 19-11-2 | 11-19-5 |
WIN/LOSS STREAK | W1 | L3 |
LAST 10 GAMES | 8-2-0 | 4-6-0 |
GOALS FOR | 105 | 96 |
GOALS AGAINST | 92 | 126 |
POWER PLAY% | 19.8 | 17.9 |
PENALTY KILL% | 74.0 | 78.6 |
AVG. SHOTS/FOR | 32.2 | 27.8 |
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST | 26.4 | 32.5 |
TEAM SAVE% | .911 | .904 |
CORSI FOR% | 53.74 | 44.74 |
PDO | 0.994 | 0.991 |
TEAM SHOOTING% | 8.24 | 8.66 |
EXPECTED GOALS FOR% | 53.18 | 44.01 |
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
- This afternoon’s meeting marks the first of four between the Oilers and Sharks. These two teams won’t play again until the season’s final three weeks when they play each other three times over a 13-day stretch.
- Leon Draisaitl has produced a ridiculous 18 points (6G, 12A) in his last seven games. He is playing out of his mind right now, and it’s the greatest thing to watch and marvel at.
- The Oilers have won 10 of their last 11 games against the Sharks, outscoring them 54-20 over that stretch. The boys have also won five straight against San Jose on home ice, putting up at least five goals each game. Don’t get overconfident now, folks.
- Zach Hyman has eight goals in his last seven games, and I think it’s hilarious that the heater kicked off right after he was passed up for the Canadian 4 Nations Face-Off roster. Revenge is best served with goals, as they say.
LINE COMBINATIONS
Oilers
Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Kapanen
Arvidsson – Henrique – Perry
J. Skinner – Janmark – Brown
Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Kapanen
Arvidsson – Henrique – Perry
J. Skinner – Janmark – Brown
Nurse – Bouchard
Ekholm – Emberson
Kulak – Stecher
Ekholm – Emberson
Kulak – Stecher
Pickard
Kris Knoblauch made a few changes at practice yesterday, most notably his defensive pairings. It’s not often that Knobby switches things up on defence, but he changed all three pairings, including his top unit with Bouchard and Ekholm. I’m most interested to see how long he keeps them this way, or if we’ll see the regular pairs back together before long.
Sharks
Goodrow – Granlund – Zetterlund
Kovalenko – Celebrini – Toffoli
Eklund – Wennberg – Smith
Grundstrom – Sturm – Kunin
Kovalenko – Celebrini – Toffoli
Eklund – Wennberg – Smith
Grundstrom – Sturm – Kunin
Walman – Ceci
Ferraro – Rutta
Thrun – Mukhamadullin
Ferraro – Rutta
Thrun – Mukhamadullin
Georgiev
The Sharks stink — I’ve covered that — but they have some players worth paying attention to. Macklin Celebrini has gotten off to a great start with 11 goals and 22 points in only 23 games. That puts him on pace for 33 goals and 66 points, similar to the rookie seasons of Auston Matthews, Connor Bedard, and Nathan MacKinnon. I’m looking forward to seeing how the kid matches up against some absolute units on the Edmonton side in McDavid and Draisaitl. He won’t be as good as those guys yet, but I’m looking forward to watching his journey to get there.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…
Head Coach Ryan Warsofsky, on this winless San Jose Sharks’ homestand:Yeah, it’s frustrating. I would say is the biggest word. It’s extremely frustrating, because we should be getting points, we should be winning some of these games, and we’re learning how to win. I know I sound like a broken record saying that, but I truly believe we’re going to start winning these games. We’re going to. We’re in it. Against really good teams. We’re playing with some pretty good structure. Our effort’s pretty solid. Our competitiveness is there.When it’s time to make the play, we’re just a little off. And I truly believe in this group. I truly believe in the organization and the direction it’s heading. I know it’s frustrating as a fan, trust me, we’re extremely frustrated in there. But I know our guys are working extremely hard to make this organization and the fans and the community really proud, and it’s going to get there one day. Hopefully, we can start seeing the light at the end of tunnel, getting some points here soon.
TONIGHT…
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
Game Day Prediction: The Oilers will pound the Sharks to within an inch of relegation, stomping San Jose by a final score of 6-1.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: Make it an eighth straight multi-point game for Leon Draisaitl. Oh, and Cody Ceci probably scores because why wouldn’t he?
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Who else is in for a Ty Emberson revenge goal? Give it to me.
