The Edmonton Oilers are coming off one of the wildest wins of the season, but tonight feels like a very different test. On their 10th try, the Oilers finally strung together three straight wins with that absurd 4-3 overtime comeback against the Sharks on Thursday, and while two points are two points, the way they got there was anything but smooth. Spotting San Jose three goals in the first period and needing a full third-period push, including two goals with the goalie pulled, made for great theatre, but it’s not a strategy to rely on. It was thrilling, it was ridiculous, it was fun, and it absolutely cannot happen again against a team as good as the Minnesota Wild.

As fun as Macklin Celebrini is to watch, the Wild are not the Sharks.

Minnesota rolls into town at 31-14-10, playing strong, structured hockey, and sits near the top of the Western Conference for a reason. They don’t overwhelm teams with shot volume, but they’re efficient, patient, and very comfortable waiting for mistakes. The Wild allow just 2.87 goals against per game, have a team save percentage sitting at a sparkling .923 at even strength, and don’t give up much in terms of free looks or chances. Edmonton, meanwhile, is scoring at a healthy 3.45 goals per game, controlling play just north of 50 percent in both Corsi and expected goals, and firing nearly 30 shots a night, but it’s the mistakes going the other way that are still a problem. There’s plenty to like there, but only if the Oilers take the game seriously from puck drop.

And showing up for a full 60 minutes is where my concern creeps in. The Oilers have shown they can flip the switch when things get desperate, but Minnesota is a team that punishes you long before desperation sets in. Give up three goals in the first period to this group and you’re not staging a storybook comeback. If the Oilers have another bad start, this one will be over. Full stop. You’d basically be chasing a game that’s designed to squeeze the life out of you. The Wild’s 24.3 percent power play is no joke either, and while Edmonton’s penalty kill has been solid at 79.6 percent, and even better over the last month, you really don’t want to spend the night testing it against a disciplined team that’s already good enough at 5v5.

All of that said, there’s plenty of reason to feel optimistic heading into this one. The Oilers are 6-3-1 over their last 10, riding their first three-game win streak, and when they’re on, this team can hang with anyone. The third period against San Jose was a reminder of what this team looks like when it pushes the pace, wins battles, and attacks in waves. I know it took some time to get there, but we did eventually. If that version of the Oilers shows up for as close to a full 60 minutes as possible, this could be a really fun hockey game. Edmonton’s power play is humming along at 31.6 percent, Minnesota’s penalty kill sits at 77.6, and if whistles start blowing, that’s an area where the Oilers can tilt the game back in their favour.

At the end of the day, this is a good measuring-stick game for our boys. The Oilers finally have a three-game win streak to protect; they’re playing a team that won’t hand them anything, and they will have to come up with their A game if they want to keep the good times rolling. Minnesota is too structured and too comfortable defending leads for the boys to offer anything less than their best. If Edmonton shows up ready to play right from Jump Street and brings the pace and urgency they found late against San Jose, they can absolutely win this hockey game. But if they try to chase the game again, a win probably won’t be there to be chased.

They earned the streak the hard way, but now comes the challenge of keeping it alive the right way.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Savoie – Samanski – Roslovic
Janmark – Lazar – Frederic

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Walman
Stastney – Emberson

Jarry

Kris Knoblauch is going with the same lineup that beat the Sharks, apart from Tristan Jarry getting his fourth start (5th appearance) in the last six games. Clearly, the coaching staff is leaning on Jarry as the starter right now, and given the trade made to acquire him, it makes sense that he’d be getting the bulk of the workload.

Kaprisov – Hartman – Zuccarello
Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy
Trenin – Yurov – Tarasenko
Foligno – Sturm – Hinostroza

Hughes – Faber
Middleton – Spurgeon
Hunt – Jiricek

Wallstedt

The Wild are good. They’re deep. They protect the puck well. They get good goaltending. I mean, this is a pretty damned strong opponent that has taken the first two meetings of the season against Edmonton, including the 1-0 shutout by Wallstedt back in December. The boys can’t mess around and give up early-game goals against Minnesota, or they will get burned, and the rest of us will have a bad time.

Game Day Prediction: Oilers get a strong start and an early goal that pushes them to a 5-3 (empty-netter) win.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: We hear about how Quinn Hughes used to be a Canuck no less than four times on the broadcast.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Fourth line game winner. Trust me. It’s happening this time.