The best thing about a back-to-back weekend is that you don’t have time to sit around and feel sorry for yourself. After another disappointing loss on Saturday afternoon in New Jersey, the Oilers get an immediate chance to redeem themselves in Detroit, and I’ll be looking for a much better effort. Yesterday’s 5–3 loss to the Devils was full of the same mistakes we’ve seen too often early this season, and they burned them again. There were careless turnovers, defensive “what are you doings”, and the kind of self-inflicted errors that make you wonder why you love sports in the first place. It wasn’t just that they lost, but how the mistakes drove them to get there.

From my side of the TV screen, you can tell there’s still rust that needs to get shaken off, but it’s getting harder to keep calling it that when the pattern feels so familiar. This is the third straight season where the Oilers have stumbled through the first handful of games in October, almost taking longer to find their rhythm while everyone else is settling in. I’m not saying they’re as bad to start as the last two years, but we are starting to see some of the same patterns. The frustration is justified because these aren’t problems of effort or talent or not being good enough. These are problems with detail. The same small mistakes are turning into big goals, and it’s already costing them points in the standings.

The good news? The trip hasn’t been a total disaster. That 2–0 shutout over the Rangers to kick things off showed that this group can win a tight game, but the follow-up disasters against the Islanders and Devils was far from good enough. Those two losses have put the team in an early hole on this five-game road swing, and now they’re walking into a tough matchup against a Detroit team that’s playing some pretty good hockey right now. The Red Wings have won four straight, their special teams are clicking, and they look Todd McLellan has them playing with confidence and connection, which happens to be what Edmonton’s still searching for.

The numbers tell the story. The Oilers are averaging over 31 shots per game but have just 13 goals to show for it. Their five-on-five shooting percentage is sitting at a brutal 5.13%, which boggles the mind for a team with this much firepower. The power play hasn’t found any rhythm yet either, clicking at only 18.8%, and the penalty kill hasn’t done enough to make up the difference. Meanwhile, Detroit’s power play is slightly better at 22% and their PK is north of 91%, and when you add in timely saves and the fact they’re finding goals up and down the lineup, you can see why they’re 4-1-0 coming into this one.

It’s not all doom and gloom, though. The Oilers’ underlying numbers are still in good shape, which suggests that the tides will turn eventually. We’re getting PDO’d a little bit right now, and we need the Hockey Gords to grace us with the other side of the coin. The boys are controlling possession and expected goals at even strength, and that usually leads to good things over time. The dam will break eventually. The hope, of course, is that today’s the day it happens. Connor McDavid hasn’t scored yet this season, and you can feel that first one coming. A bounce here, some finish there, and suddenly the mood, not just for the captain but for a lot of guys, can shift quickly.

What the Oilers need most is a clean game with everyone chipping in. Simplicity. Pucks to the net. Bodies at the net. Don’t try and do too much. Most importantly, they have to stop gift-wrapping momentum and chances for their opponent. If the boys can play with purpose and finally cash in on the chances they’re creating, this matinee could be the reset button they’ve been searching for. But if we go through another game where they’re passing to everyone but each other, we could be in line for another long afternoon. It’s still early, but it’s time for this group to stop talking about potential and start stacking up results.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

	OILERS	RED WINGS
RECORD	2-2-1	4-1-0
WIN/LOSS STREAK	L2	W4
GOALS FOR	13	16
GOALS AGAINST	14	12
POWER PLAY%	18.8	22.2
PENALTY KILL%	82.4	91.7
GOALS FOR/GAME	2.60	3.20
GOALS AGAINST/GAME	2.60	2.40
AVG. SHOTS/FOR	31.4	27.4
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST	23.0	26.6
TEAM SAVE%	.928	.909
CORSI FOR%	51.16	49.57
PDO	0.979	0.974
TEAM SHOOTING%	5.13	6.48
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%	52.26	51.43

Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)

Digging into the special teams for a minute, the Red Wings have allowed only one power-play goal all season. Why does that matter? Edmonton’s power play is 18.8%, which fine on paper, but definitely not fine when you’ve given up more shorties than you’ve scored.
The Oilers have been outscored 7–4 in third periods, which doesn’t need much explanation for why that’s a problem. The Red Wings, by contrast, have outscored opponents 7–4 in third periods, so we’ll need a much strong finisher from the visitors to say the least.
Dylan Larkin is on a heater. Detroit’s captain has seven points (3G, 4A) in five games, with points landing in every single outing so far.
Mason Appleton has quietly been a difference-maker so far for the Red Wings with three goals in five games, including a game-winner. Depth scoring matters and Detroit is getting it right now.
Standings watching already? The Oilers are sitting in fourth in the Pacific Division behind Vegas, Seattle, and Vancouver. We’ll be doing banner watch all season, people.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Mangiapane
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Savoie – Frederic – Roslovic
Henrique – Tomasek – Lazar

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson

Skinner

Stuart Skinner gets the start this afternoon as he continues to chase career win number 100. Once he gets that next win, the milestone that will make him the third-fastest goalie in franchise history to get there. Outside of the one mistake against Calgary, Skinner hasn’t been the problem — he’s been steady. The problem is what’s happening in front of him. The Oilers have been outworking teams in stretches but undoing their own progress with mental errors, giveaways, bad reads, and a lack of finish around the net. No news on line combos yet given that the Oilers played yesterday, so I’ll jump back in and edit closer to puck drop.

Red Wings

Finnie – Larkin – Appleton
DeBrincat – Kasper – Berggren
Copp – Compher – Brandsegg-Nygard
Van Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Soderblom

Chiarot – Seider
Edvinsson – Sandin-Pellikka
Johansson – Bernard-Docker

Gibson

The Red Wings come into this game riding a four-game win streak and playing with the kind of confidence the Oilers are still searching for. Dylan Larkin is leading the charge with seven points in five games, Alex DeBrincat keeps feeding teammates, and Patrick Kane looks rejuvenated after a strong start. Mason Appleton’s chipped in with timely goals, and Moritz Seider continues to anchor the blue line with heavy minutes and steady play. In goal, Cam Talbot’s been sharp while John Gibson is coming off his first win of the season. Top to bottom, Detroit’s playing fast, connected hockey, and that’s a problem the Oilers will need to find a way to deal with.

TONIGHT…

GDB Edmonton Oilers Leon Draisaitl Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk

Game Day Prediction: This time I mean it when I say the Oilers bounce from a tough loss with much tighter execution. This time I mean that the result will be a clean 3-1 win.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: Connor McDavid still hasn’t scored in the first first games of the year. The anger is growing in him him. This time, he unleashes the fury to do good.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Need a dose of depth? I’ve got David Tomasek finally converting on one of his many chances.

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