The Edmonton Oilers wrap up their California road trip with a final stop in San Jose to face Macklin Celebrini and the sixth-place Sharks. I know I don’t have to tell anybody reading this how important these two points are, but it’s worth mentioning that the Oilers absolutely need to figure out a way to close out these four-point swing games with wins if they’re going to have any chance of chasing down first in the Pacific Division. The Sharks have lost their last four games, and there would be no better way to spend a Saturday afternoon than by watching the boys kick a team when they’re down. Dare to dream?

The Oilers are coming off an 8–1 demolition of the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday, and for the first time in a while, it actually felt like the boys actually flexed on someone instead of scrambling to survive. I know things didn’t go our way against the Ducks the night before, but it’s hard not to be impressed by the offensive side of Edmonton’s game. Five goals in Anaheim. Eight against L.A. The offence is humming, the power play is sitting at a nasty 30.5 percent, and when this group gets rolling, it can bury you in a hurry. But as we all know all too well, it’s not the scoring that’s necessarily the problem. It’s keeping the pucks out. And there lies the hard part.

Saturday’s matinee in San Jose is obviously a divisional game, but also a game against a team eight points behind the Oilers in the standings. Say what you will about must-win games or beating bad teams because you’re supposed to, these are two points the Oilers absolutely need and should come from a team that’s worse by nearly ever metric. I know, I know… we’re Oilers fans, and what’s supposed to happen has no bearing on what does happen. I get it. And with the Oilers sitting at 29-23-8 and still trying to claw their way out of a messy first 2/3 of the season, this is the kind of afternoon that can help to separate “man, it was fun stomping the Kings” from “okay, maybe they’re cooking something here.”

On paper, this is a game that Edmonton should win. The numbers suggest it. Betting lines suggest it. My eyeballs suggest it. But even with all of the proof in the world, we’ve been hurt more than a few times this season alone, and it will take more than numbers on a screen to convince this fanbase that a win is coming. Yet, the Oilers are controlling over 50 percent of the shot share and expected goals at five-on-five, are scoring 3.52 goals per game, and putting more than 30 shots on net per night. The Sharks, meanwhile, are underwater in Corsi and expected goals, give up over 30 shots per game, and come into the afternoon riding a four-game losing streak. At even strength and on special teams, the spreadsheets favour the Oilers.

But here’s the catch. The boys are also giving up 3.35 goals per game and carrying a .889 team save percentage at 5v5. Goals for is hardly the issue, as much as we all want the depth scoring to wake up from time to time. The Oilers can score goals. We got a real good look at it this week in Anaheim and Los Angeles. What we haven’t seen consistently, however, is the ability to shut a game down. Against a Sharks team that scores just over three per game and gives up 3.51, playing sloppy defence is a sure-fire way to end up back in the loss column. As much as San Jose can be a yard sale in their own end, that doesn’t mean they can’t hurt you at the other. Let’s see some basic, boring hockey in the defensive zone if that’s what it takes.

As much as there’s still plenty of time left, it also won’t be long until we’re in the final few games before the playoffs. Looking ahead, there are a pile of Pacific Division games left on the schedule, and the Oilers desperately need to start banking points against teams they should beat. We can talk about what they need to do and who they have left to play until we pass out. The only way the Oilers will start climbing the standings is by stringing wins together, which is something they’ve struggled to do all year. With margins getting tighter as we get into the back half of the 2025-26 campaign, the Oilers need to make these games count.

Thursday was fun. Destroying the Kings will always be a good time in my books, and I do hope to watch another such dismantling happen again. That game was a nice reminder of what this roster can be when all four lines are finding a way to pitch in. But at the same time, what happened on Thursday has nothing to do with what goes down in a few hours at the SAP Center. Today is a day for the Oilers to keep their big boy pants on. I want to see them show up on time, defend like they mean it, and take the two points from a weaker team to set the tone for a celebratory PJ ride home. If the Oilers are serious about turning the page, this is one of those games you circle and decide that they’ve gotta win this one. Momentum is fragile, the standings are tighter than they should be, and the clock is ticking.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Savoie – Draisaitl – Roslovic
Pokolzin – Henrique – Kapanen
Magiapane – Lazar – Frederic

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Walman
Statsney – Emberson

Ingram

I don’t see any reason for the Oilers to change a thing after an 8-1 win, other than welcoming Kasperi Kapanen back into the lineup. Kris Knoblauch said Kapanen would likely be back on Saturday, a couple of days ago, so I’m going to go ahead and assume he slots in on the right side ahead of Trent Frederic. These aren’t the official line combos, but I’ll jump back in and make the edits as soon as the news comes out.

Smith – Celebrini – Sherwood
Eklund – Misa – Toffoli
Kurashev – Wennberg – Graf
Goodrow – Ostapchuk – Reaves

Ferraro – Liljegren
Orlov – Klingberg
Dickinson – Desharnais

Askarov

Macklin Celebrini is the San Jose Sharks, and if the Oilers can limit him from being a factor as best as possible, then there is no reason they shouldn’t win this hockey game. Am I biased? Yes. Am I wrong? No. The deeper you go in the Sharks’ lineup, the more “Oh, I remember that guy” starts to pop up.

Game Day Prediction: It’s been a while, and I feel it in my plums. 4-2 Oilers.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: We get no fewer than 5 mentions of the Olympic bromance between Connor McDavid and Macklin Celebrini. They followed each other on Instagram. It’s a whole thing.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: No one will see goals from Ty Emberson in consecutive games coming. You will know because I know. I am channelling my inner Gregor-witch demons.