The Edmonton Oilers are back at Rogers Place on Saturday afternoon for a massive divisional matchup against the Anaheim Ducks, and with only a handful of games left on the schedule, every single point feels heavier than the last. The boys did a great job sweeping their road trip, knocking off Utah and Vegas along the way, but this one? This one is big. Anaheim sits five points up in first place with a game in hand, and if the Oilers have any real hopes of making a push for the top of the Pacific Division, there is no other option but to win this hockey game.

Standing in the way, of course, is a Ducks team that has turned into a legitimate problem. Winners of four straight and sitting at 41-27-4, Anaheim has been stacking points and playing with a ton of confidence. They’re resilient, they’re fast, and they’re incredibly opportunistic when you give them a chance, and the numbers back it up too. This isn’t luck. The Ducks are scoring 3.38 goals per game, have their Corskis floating around 51 percent, and are backing it all up with a .896 team save percentage. They may be one of only two playoff teams with a negative goal differential, but it’s hard to say they haven’t earned their spot.

What makes this matchup especially interesting is how similar these two teams look when you start digging into the numbers, and I don’t necessarily mean that as a compliment. Both teams are coming in with identical 6-3-1 records over their last 10 games, are hovering around the same goals-for and goals-against totals, and are sitting right around the 50 percent mark in expected goals at five-on-five. The Oilers have a clear edge on the power play at 30.7 percent compared to Anaheim’s 18.6, but outside of that, there isn’t a whole lot separating these two teams on paper.

So what does all of that mean? It’s simple. The game is going to come down to execution. As much as the Oilers have done a fantastic job finding ways to win without Leon Draisaitl in the lineup, the margin for error is razor thin right now. There’s no extra cushion in the standings if the wheels fall off, and against a team like Anaheim that’s feeling as good as they are, everybody on the home side needs to bring their best. No passengers today, folks. What I’m looking for is for everyone in a white jersey to look just as engaged as they were two nights ago in Vegas.

I know I keep repeating myself in these GDBs by saying the Oilers need to focus on defence first, but it’s hard not to when you’ve got a 247 GA-sized elephant in the room. This team is more than capable of generating offence. That’s never been the issue. The issue is whether they can take care of their own end well enough to let that offence actually win them hockey games. We saw the Oilers play two very playoff-style games against Utah and Vegas, and against a team this close to you in the standings, cheating for offence is a dangerous game to play. With Anaheim playing as well as they are, they’re not going to beat themselves.

We’ve got the first-place team in the Pacific Division coming into our barn with a chance to close the gap. I know the math doesn’t look great on leapfrogging Anaheim, but this is an opportunity to build on what’s already been a really strong stretch. If the Oilers win today, they cut the gap down to three points, which would really ramp up the pressure on the Ducks down the stretch. But none of that happens without a full team effort. Every line has to give you something. Every pairing has to be sharp. Every single guy has to be a little bit better than they were the night before. Everyone needs to fight above their weight class.

The Oilers have done a great job getting themselves back into the fight, but games like this are where you find out how real that push actually is. A little more urgency on loose pucks. A little more care at both blue lines. A little more commitment to getting back and sorting things out in the defensive zone. It doesn’t need to be perfect, but it needs to be as close as possible. Against a team this similar to you on paper, the difference is going to come down to the details. First place is right there, but it’s going to take a bunch more wins and a whole lot of luck to get there. Step one is winning today.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Podkolzin – McDavid – Savoie
Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Roslovic
Samanski  – Dickinson – Kapanen
Jones – Henrique – Järventie

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Murphy
Walman – Emberson

Ingram

Maybe it’s just me, but I see an Oilers team that’s starting to gel right now. Maybe it’s because everyone is being forced into scrums lately, but sometimes, there’s no better way to pull the boys together than some good shenanigans. We got plenty of that against Vegas on Thursday night, and now we’ll need the Oilers to stick together just as closely this afternoon. They can do this.

Kreider – Carlsson – Vatrano
Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke
Viel – Poehling – Gauthier
McTavish – Washe – Moore

LaCombe – Trouba
Mintyukov – Carlson
Zellweger – Gudas

Dostal

The Ducks haven’t scored quite as many goals as the Oilers this season, but this is a lineup with plenty of firepower if you give them the chance. As I wrote earlier in the piece, they’re also one of only two teams in a playoff spot that has a negative goal differential. They’re going to give the Oilers looks on net, and it will be up to our boys to find a way to cash in on those opportunities.

Game Day Prediction: I think we’re in for a tight one today. I’m going to say 4-2 Oilers with an empty-netter.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: Connor McDavid multi-point night on deck, friends.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Make it three games in a row with a goal for Matt Savoie? I say yes!