The Edmonton Oilers and Los Angeles Kings are staring down a fourth straight playoff matchup, and with two head-to-head meetings left in the regular season, these games could very likely determine which of these two teams secures home-ice advantage. Needless to say, today’s matinee at Crypto.com Arena will be incredibly important.
We’ve spoken a lot recently about whether it’s more important for the Oilers to win home-ice advantage or to get healthy for the playoffs, and it’s turning into an impossible question to answer after Leon Draisaitl went down on Thursday after coming back from injury for only three games. While we want our Dynamic Duo — along with Evander Kane — only to come back when they’re ready, it’s hard to say that when you already know the team will be playing a Kings squad that has been red hot at home all season.
At 28-4-4 on home ice, the Kings are one of the best in the NHL at getting the job done at home, and that matters a whole lot when it comes to a seven-game playoff series. While the Oilers have handled the Kings in seven, six, and five games over the last three playoff series, I’m expecting the fourth round to be the most difficult of the lot, and any advantage either side can get for this next round will be crucial. Assuming this series runs long, wouldn’t you rather have Game 7 on the table at Rogers Place than go back to L.A. and close things out there? Of course, you would.
That said, winning these next two regular-season games against the Kings will be easier said than done without Edmonton’s best players in the lineup. Despite holding a 7-2-1 record over their last 10 games, the Oilers will again be without Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, making our home-ice goal over these last seven games all the more challenging. No matter how you slice it, losing your two best players will be a blow to any team in the NHL, but we’re still talking about a veteran hockey club here and one whose depth players need to step up to fill the void.
The good news is that players like Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner are starting to play up to their potential, and the offence is following as a result. We’ll need players like that to keep the good vibes going if the Oilers are going to grind out wins against strong opponents like Los Angeles. No disrespect to the Krakens of the world — Seattle was the last team Edmonton beat without Connor and Leon in the lineup — but beating L.A. while being this depleted is a different animal entirely. Locking in a win this afternoon will require timely goal-scoring, sound defensive play, and a willingness to grind for inches.
The boys can’t be sloppy with the puck against L.A. and expect to win. If we’re going to extend this winning streak to four games, it’s going to happen because of solid goaltending, timely depth scoring, puck management, and making sure they don’t gift the Kings with any additional opportunities that they haven’t already earned for themselves. As dull as it is to say, this has to be a game where the team focuses on keeping it simple and playing defensive hockey first. If Edmonton tries to turn this thing into a track meet, I worry we simply do not have the horses available to use that tactic.
Let’s see what the numbers say…
THE NUMBERS
OILERS | KINGS | |
RECORD | 44-26-5 | 43-23-9 |
WIN/LOSS STREAK | W3 | W3 |
LAST 10 GAMES | 7-2-1 | 7-3-0 |
GOALS FOR | 242 | 223 |
GOALS AGAINST | 219 | 189 |
POWER PLAY% | 25.5 | 16.5 |
PENALTY KILL% | 77.2 | 81.5 |
AVG. SHOTS/FOR | 32.0 | 27.9 |
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST | 27.2 | 25.3 |
TEAM SAVE% | 8.11 | 9.35 |
CORSI FOR% | 53.95 | 53.31 |
PDO | 0.984 | 1.016 |
TEAM SHOOTING% | .903 | .923 |
EXPECTED GOALS FOR% | 54.12 | 54.30 |
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
- Saturday’s meeting is the third of four this season between the Oilers and Kings, splitting their first two meetings with each team earning a win on home ice.
- Corey Perry leads all active Oilers in career games (82) and career points (48) against the Kings. Evan Bouchard has 11 points (3G, 8A) over his last 11 regular season games versus the Kings, and we’ll need him to produce like that again this afternoon.
- Warren Foegele’s plus-27 rating through 36 appearances at Crypto.com Arena this season is the highest home-ice rating among all NHL forwards and is tied for second among all League skaters, trailing only Tampa Bay’s Ryan McDonagh.
LINE COMBINATIONS
Oilers
Podkolzin – Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson
Frederic – Henrique – Hyman
Skinner – Janmark – Brown
Jones – Kapanen – Perry
Frederic – Henrique – Hyman
Skinner – Janmark – Brown
Jones – Kapanen – Perry
Walman – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Pickard
As much as it undoubtedly sucks that Leon Draisaitl got banged up again on Thursday, I am very excited to watch Trent Frederic’s Oilers debut after waiting over a month since he was acquired from the Bruins. Frederic can be a bull in a china shop when he’s at his best, and I can’t think of a better game for that to be unleashed than in an important one against the Kings.
Kings
Kuzmenko – Kopitar – Kempe
Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere
Foegele – Danault – Moore
Malott – Helenius – Lewis
Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere
Foegele – Danault – Moore
Malott – Helenius – Lewis
Anderson – Doughty
Edmundson – Gavrikov
Moverare – Clarke
Edmundson – Gavrikov
Moverare – Clarke
Kuemper
You know the L.A. Kings will be fired up for this game. They’ve been excellent all season on home ice, and a win today would put them another step closer to securing that luxury for the playoffs. Given that the Kings win the vast majority of their games at Crypto.com Arena, having that seventh game on home ice would be a massive win for them against an opponent who has knocked them out of the playoffs for three straight seasons.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…
Kings versus Oilers, Saturday afternoon in Los Angeles. For a regular-season game, this is as close to as big as it gets. Kings Head Coach Jim Hiller expressed his excitement and hopes everyone will match it in the arena later on today.“It’s going to be a good game, we’ll be excited, they’ll be excited,” Hiller said. “I’m sure our fans will appreciate this one and will be loud and proud, I will hope. The place should be rocking, I think, come [this] afternoon.”Entering today’s game, the Kings have 95 points, bolstered by that win over Utah. Edmonton kept pace with the victory over their own, winning 3-2 in San Jose, moving back to within two points of the Kings in the standings with 93. A Kings win today would see them move 3 or 4 points clear of Edmonton, while also pulling within a point of Vegas at the top of the division. A loss would see the gap either narrow to a single point or move to zero, with the tiebreaker still pointing in the Kings favor.No matter what happens today, the Kings will be in second place in the Pacific Division with six games to play. Los Angeles holds that first tiebreaker over Edmonton by a pretty comfortable margin and barring a very strange set of results down the stretch for both teams, if the Kings and Oilers finish tied, the Kings would hold the edge.Six games remaining after today. Four of those six games for the Kings come on home ice and just two come against a current playoff team, including one final showdown with the Oilers at Rogers Place. The first part is certainly welcomed. The latter, not so sure, with how results have gone this season at times. But man, what a fun opportunity.
TONIGHT…
Game Day Prediction: The depth scoring keeps chipping in when it matters most, powering the Oilers to a 5-3 win over the Kings.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: L.A. runs into penalty trouble caused by their incessant cheating ways, and the Oilers punish them on the power play, per tradition.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: I’m calling for a two-fight game. It’s been a minute since we’ve had some scraps, and I’m guessing a couple of guys will shed the mitts today. As for a guess? I’m going with Perry and Nurse.
