The Edmonton Oilers have the worst home points percentage in the NHL.

They are 2-5-1 with a .313P%. Chicago is 31st at .333, and no other teams are under .400. The Oilers are last in goals for per game at 1.88 and rank 25th in goals against per game at 3.50. The good news: They have loads of room to improve.

Edmonton had the third-best home record in the NHL last season, going 28-9-4. They tallied 60 points. Only Colorado had more at 63, while the New York Rangers also had 60. Edmonton only won one of its first six home games, but defeated the New York Islanders 4-1 on November 13th. That started an eight-game home winning streak, and the Oilers won 27 of their final 35 home games.

The Oilers’ early-season weaknesses, a lack of 5×5 scoring and horrendous special teams, have been most noticeable on home ice. Edmonton has 15 goals in eight home games, and eight of them came in victories over Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Their power play is 17.7% (3-for-17) and their penalty kill is ugly 56.5%, allowing 10 goals on 23 kills. The home crowd hasn’t had much to cheer about, but a date with the injury-riddled Islanders tonight, combined with the Oilers’ 7-3 victory in Vancouver on Saturday, could be the perfect tonic for the Oilers to get back on track on home ice.

Over the past three seasons the Oilers have the second-best home record in the Western Conference at 79-33-11. Only Colorado (85-27-11) is better. They are tied with Colorado for most goals/game at 3.89 and they rank 16th in GA/GP at 2.89. For three seasons, the Oilers made coming to Edmonton difficult for opposing teams, and they need to rediscover that formula.

The Islanders are banged up. Matt Barzal, Anthony Duclair and Adam Pelech are on IR. Mike Reilly and Alex Romanov are also injured. Their blue line features 20-year-old rookie Isaiah George (2022 fourth-round pick), Dennis Cholowski (124 NHL GP) and Grant Hutton (22 NHL GP). George has taken big strides since his draft year, and only 14 first round picks have played more NHL games than him after being the 98th pick in 2022. He was recalled due to injury, but he earned the recall and the Islanders love him. He’s averaging 21:16/game in his three NHL games. He’s played on the second pair with Noah Dobson and will get a heavy dose of either Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. Edmonton has to take advantage of that matchup when they can, but even more so when they face the Islanders’ third pair of Cholowski and Hutton.

— Leon Draisaitl has the second-best SF% among NHL forwards at 63.87%. When he’s on the ice the Oilers have outshot opponents 152-86.

— Vasily Podkozlin ranks fourth at 63.07SF% (111-65) and Viktor Arvidsson is fifth at 63.01% (138-81).

— In the 82 minutes they’ve skated together 5×5, they’ve outshot opponents 59-35 (62.77), but are even in GF-GA at three. They have a combined 5.08SH%. They’ve created a lot and Arvidsson’s goal off the rush in Vancouver was long overdue. They’ve been very good as a line in every area but burying their scoring chances, and if they start to do that they will go from effective to impactful.

— Brett Kulak is having the best offensive start of his career with four goals and six points in 15 games. His career high is six goals in 2019 and 21 points in 2022 split between Montreal and Edmonton. Kulak has been very good overall. He has a 58.75 SF% (141-99) and a xGF% of 60.33.

— After being on the ice for nine 5×5 goals in the first 10 games, Darnell Nurse has only been on for one goal against in the past five games. It was a much-needed improvement. The next step is for him, and his PK teammates, to stop the bleeding shorthanded.

— Connor McDavid is five points shy of 1,000. He will become the fourth fastest player to 1000 when reaches the milestone, most likely this week. Wayne Gretzky did it in 424 games (and he needed 433 games to go from 1,000-2,000), Mario Lemieux needed 513 games and Mike Bossy reached 1,000 points in 656 games. Tonight is McDavid’s 658th NHL game. I won’t be shocked to see him reach it tonight or Thursday v. Nashville. At worst he would do it Saturday in Toronto so he likely will reach 1,000 by game 660, almost 100 games quicker than Sidney Crosby (757).

— Leon Draisaitl is a dominant offensive player, one of the best in today’s game. Here’s what impresses him most about McDavid. “In my eyes there’s never been a player like him, especially in the modern era. No player has created chances the way he does, at the speed and at the consistency that he does over 10 years now. Very, very impressive.

“But there’s a lot of work that goes into it for him and a lot of people don’t see. We’re very fortunate we get to watch him and see him every day and see how much he cares about the game of hockey, how much he cares about himself. I’m very fortunate to be able to learn from him and watch him do his thing. It’s just fun to watch, it really is.”

Skinner – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Arvidsson
Henrique – Nugent-Hopkins – Brown
Janmark – Ryan – Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson

Skinner

No lineup changes for Edmonton. Kris Knoblauch tried many different line combinations in Vancouver, as J. Skinner and RNH split time on the McDavid’s line, but McDavid also played 2:43 with Corey Perry and Derek Ryan. Knoblauch mentioned how the seven goal outburst should have aftershocks heading into tonight as more players should be relaxed and confident about their game. Fans hope he’s right as the home crowd hasn’t had a lot to cheer about so far this season with only two wins in eight games.

Lee – Horvat – Pageau
Tsyplakov – Nelson – Palmeiri
Engvall – Cizikas – Holmstrom
Martin – MacLean – Wahlstrom

Mayfield – Pulock
George – Dobson
Cholowski – Hutton

Sorokin

The Islanders are 28th in scoring at 2.47 goals/game and they are 28th on the PP at 13%. They are one of the five teams (ANA, BOS, STL and SJ are the others) who are below the Oilers in overall offence and PP efficiency. This is a game the Oilers should, and need to win.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers move above .500 for the first time this season and give the home crowd some goals to cheer about in a 5-2 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Brett Kulak remains hot and picks up another point.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Vasily Podkolzin scores his first goal in 36 games and first since March 23rd, 2023.