The Edmonton Oilers and Ottawa Senators’ seasons have closely mirrored one another. Both teams are outshooting opponents by a large margin at 5×5, but both squads have been outscored, and the reasons are at opposite ends of the ice.

The Oilers have the best 5×5 SF% in the NHL at 56.99% while Ottawa is third at 55.76%. Edmonton has outshot teams 522-394 in their 19 games, while Ottawa has outshot opponents 426-338 in their 17 games. The Oilers’ main issue at 5×5 is they can’t finish, while the Senators can’t get a timely save. The Sens would like a few more goals and the Oilers a few more saves, but the main problem at 5×5 for Edmonton has been a lack of finish and a lack of saves for the Senators.

At 5×5, Edmonton has the highest expected goals for, while Ottawa has the lowest expected goals against. Ouch.

The Oilers have fired 522 shots on goal but only have 33 goals. They rank second in expected goals at 45 but sit 30th in SH% at 6.32%.

The Senators have allowed 338 shots on goal and have allowed 35 goals. They have the lowest expected goals against at 28, yet they sit 26th in Sv% at .896.

Ottawa’s lack of finish has also been an issue as they rank 27th with a 7.28Sh%, however, they rank 25th in xGF, so their low SH% isn’t a major surprise considering they don’t generate many high-danger chances.

Edmonton could also use a few more saves, but the Oilers have allowed 36 goals 5×5 while having an xGA of 37.

Will the Senators get a few more saves tonight, or will the Oilers bury some of their chances?

— Did you know that NHL average expected Sv% for goalies at 5×5 this season is .897%. Linus Ullmark has a .891Sv% at 5×5. His expected sv% is .902 via Clear Sight Analytics. Stuart Skinner has an .896Sv% while his xSV% is .899. He is slightly below, but it is the penalty kill Sv% that has really sewered his overall stats. You’d like Skinner to make a few more saves 5×5, no doubt, but he isn’t as far off as some want to believe. Reads off the rush are his weakness right now.

— The Oilers’ lack of finish has yet to rectify itself. Here’s a look at the forwards goals, shots, SH/60 and SH% last year compared to this season.

Only Leon Draisaitl, Corey Perry and Connor Brown have a better Sh% so far this season than last. But Zach Hyman is the only player who has a significant dip or increase in shots/60. He is down almost three. He isn’t getting as many chances around the net, but his SH% is where we see the biggest dip. He was at 16.98% last year but only 5.31% this season. He has two goals but would need six to be at 16%. Last year was a career high in 5×5 goals and SH%, but he also had more shots on goal. His career SH% at 5×5 is 10.9%, and in his three previous seasons in Edmonton it was 12.2%. He’s well below that. He’s had some bad luck, but he also on pace for only 159 shots which is lower than the 212 and 193 he had the past two years.

— The blueliners are overall about the same, although they are slightly higher in goals/game at 0.42 compared to 0.38 last season.

Evan Bouchard and Brett Kulak are scoring at a much higher rate early on, while Mattias Ekholm and Darnell Nurse’s goals and SH% are down. Goals by D-men can fluctuate, but overall, the group is scoring around the same number of goals. The shot rate from the blueliners has increased, but more shots from the blue line doesn’t lead to more goals. Last year they averaged 8.25 shots/game from the blue line, while this season they are at 9.68. A small increase, but not enough to impact the overall team SH%.

— Bouchard’s shot rate is up despite him having almost twice as many shots blocked per game. Bouchard leads the NHL with 68 shot attempts blocked. He’s on pace for 293, after having only 185 blocked last year. He’s already had nine games with four or more shot attempts blocked. Last season he had a total of 16 games with 4+ attempts blocked with eight (1x), six (6x), five (1x) and four (8x). This year he’s had games with nine (1x), eight (1x), seven (1x), six (2x) five (1x) and four (3x). Those nine games he’s had 53 attempts blocked.

Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes are second and third in the NHL, and offensive D-men do have more attempts blocked, but Bouchard is well above the 185 and 161 he had the previous two seasons. He’s usually quite good at getting shots through, but this season it has been an issue.

— The Oilers simply got outworked by Montreal last night. Edmonton didn’t generate many high-danger chances. They settled for perimeter shots. They need a much better effort tonight.