Just like the annual commentary on how the Edmonton Oilers need to play better defensively. It’s become a tradition in Edmonton, not a good one for the players, but as the Oilers enter the final quarter of the season, the discussion once again turns to the need for them to play better defensively.

The recent numbers are gruesome. Edmonton leads the NHL in goals scored in its last 10 games with 44, however, the team has allowed the most goals at 46 and have a record of 4-6. What’s wild is that in the 25 games before their last 10, the Oilers allowed only 64 goals and had the third-best GA/GP at 2.56. They literally went from being one of the best defensive teams to the worst, for no apparent reason.

They didn’t suffer key injuries. They didn’t have a tough schedule. They just decided they’d rather play run-and-gun, fly the zone, make poor decisions with the puck, and the goalies couldn’t make timely stops. The Oilers play like young men whose prefrontal cortexes aren’t fully developed and make impulsive decisions that often impact them negatively. Studies show that most males’ prefrontal cortex isn’t fully developed until they are 25, but only Matt Savoie, Vasily Podkolzin and Josh Samanski are under 25, and those three might be the three most responsible defensive players among the forwards.

Simply put, there is no excuse for how the Oilers have played defensively over their last 10 games, which has spanned six weeks from Jan. 22 to today. They had a three-week break in between, and it helped their offensive brain, as the Oilers scored 17 goals in their three games out of the Olympic break, but their defensive brain continued to make unstable decisions.

“In their last 10 games, the Oilers are 32nd in HD chances against off the rush, 30th in HD chances against overall and near the bottom in HD chances against on the PK,” explained In Goal Magazine’s Kevin Woodley. “I understand the goalies have to play better, they do, but when the team tightens up, it will be easier to play goal.”

Oilers GM Stan Bowman acquired Connor Murphy yesterday. Murphy is a defensive-minded D-man. Murphy’s calling card from scouts read as follows: Plays hard in front of the net, is willing to block shots, battles hard, isn’t afraid to drop the gloves, stands up for teammates and is okay moving the puck. The Oilers don’t need more puck movers. They can score with any team in the league. They need to defend better and yesterday, Bowman outlined what he’s seen from his team recently.

“We haven’t played well defensively as a team. I think it’s a number of factors, all of them contributing. It’s goaltending defence and forwards. I think the biggest challenge for our group is we don’t put ourselves in a great spot often in games. We score a ton of goals and I think that’s great. If you think back to the early part of our season, we weren’t scoring much, but I think we’ve swung the pendulum probably too far one way where we’re pushing to try to make things happen. In the process of doing that, we put ourselves in really bad spots.
“I think until we learn as a team to be smarter about the way we approach the games, we’re going to see a lot of highs and lows to where we look great some nights, we’re scoring a lot of goals, and other nights we’re giving up a ton of chances and putting our defence and our goalie in bad spots. I think that’s got to change, so that’s more of a mentality shift for our group to understand what a winning brand of hockey is. I think we see it in spurts this year, but I don’t think we see it nearly consistent enough, especially as the season progresses and the league changes around this time of year. Heading into the stretch run, there has to be a bigger commitment from all of our players to play a smarter hockey and not trying to make plays every shift. I think that’s something that we’ve been guilty of, especially lately.
“But even going back to the games in late January, I think maybe it’s having more respect for the game and the simplicity of the game sometimes. I think we want to put on a show, and we want to score goals, and I think we all love scoring goals. But there’s two sides to it, and I think we haven’t managed that very well as a team. So yes, there’s lots of details underneath that as far as players need to play better. No question, both forwards, defence, and goalies.
“I think the bigger way to fix that, it’s not going to be by adding magical new players. It’s going to be the approach that we take as a team, understanding that going through a whole period without getting a lot of scoring chances is okay if you don’t give up a lot. I think that’s what happens in playoff hockey. Our team has shown the maturity to play that way when the games matter the most, I think right now we haven’t been dialled in enough and committed enough to play that way, and that’s what’s causing us a problem.”

The Oilers have shown, in the regular season and the playoffs, that they can lock it down defensively. In Kris Knoblauch’s first 69 games after being hired during the 2023/2024 season, the Oilers led the NHL in points with 97, they were second in GF/GP at 3.72, and they were fifth in GA/GP at 2.68. They were the only team in the NHL averaging more than 1.00 goals scored per game. They scored a lot and defended well. In the playoffs, they had a 2.60 GA/GP, just slightly above Florida’s 2.58. They had the odd, rough game, including their goalie, Stuart Skinner, but overall, they defended well.

Last year in the playoffs, they were Jekyll and Hyde. In the opening round v. Los Angeles, they allowed 24 goals in six games, including 12 in the first two when they allowed 26 high-danger chances. Then they woke up defensively, giving up only 10 goals in five games to Vegas (2.00 GAA) and 11 to Dallas (2.20). Skinner had three shutouts in those two series. But in the Cup Final the Oilers allowed 28 goals in six games. Blaming the goalie was easy, and they needed to be better, but it wasn’t the entire story. The entire team was weak defensively.

Now this season, the Oilers were leaky in October and November and ranked 30th in GA/GP at 3.58 goals in 25 games. Then they buckled down and over their next 26 games they ranked third best in GAA at 2.56. But then they reverted back to loose and leaky defensive hockey and surrendered a league-worst 4.60 GAA in their last 10 games.

This is a trend for this group: They struggle to maintain a sound defensive focus. In 2024 they showed they could do it and they rode it to Game 7 of the Cup Final. I always equate defensive hockey to will, and offensive hockey to skill. You can try your hardest to score goals, but if you don’t have the high-end skill to pick a corner, make great passes or make the odd highlight reel play, you won’t be elite offensively. But in the defensive zone it is about a willingness to battle, be in the right position to stifle the offence and do it repeatedly. It is hard. Very few teams remain consistent defensively all season.

Bowman believes his team can find defensive consistency.

“It’s not a lack of knowledge on how to play winning hockey. You can’t get to the Stanley Cup final two years in a row if you don’t play a winning brand. We definitely can do it; we just haven’t done it frequently enough this season. I think that’s part of sports, though. I mean, there’s variability in performance. There are highs and lows to a team and that’s just kind of how sports go. I guess that’s not a great answer as to why we can’t.
“But I think it’s just that commitment. I mean, in a lot of ways, it’s not super exciting sometimes to play a whole period and not get many scoring chances and just play simple, boring hockey. But a lot of times, that’s winning hockey. It’s just committing to it and convincing yourself that that’s good enough in the moment. We’ve got some incredibly talented players, and they have the best intentions. They want to help the team win. They’re not out there trying to do bad things. They’re trying to score. But sometimes the risk-reward trade-off, it’s in the wrong order. And you end up where we’ve been lately.
“There’s a lot of elements to our game that are trending well. We are scoring a lot of goals, and I’ve been talking to a lot of GMs lately and they kind of laugh. Like, we wish we had that problem. We can’t score to save our life. So, we’re kind of in the other end, where we’re scoring a lot, but we’re giving up too much. It’s just about finding that balance. And that’s what good teams do. And I’m confident we’ll get there.”

What is wild about the Oilers going from porous defensively, to great defensively, back to porous defensively, is that it wasn’t gradual. It literally changed overnight.

They allowed 25 goals in five games in late November, including Dallas scoring eight goals, and then the next game they shutout Seattle and allowed one goal to Minnesota the following game and they got on roll defensively. Then in the last four games of their 25-game stretch where they ranked 3rd best in GAA at 2.56, the Oilers allowed 1, 0, 0 and 2 goals. They were playing great defensively, but then Pittsburgh lit them up for six goals on January 22nd which led to them allowing 25 goals over their next five games and 21 in their last five. It was an abrupt switch.

That might not happen again, it might be gradual where they only allow three goals in a game before going down to two or one, but they need to get on the path to sound defensive hockey quickly. They need urgency in their defensive game, because this morning the Oilers woke up in the second Wildcard position.

The Oilers are four points ahead of San Jose, LA and Nashville, but those teams have games in hand. The good news for the Oilers is they are only four points back of first place Vegas. The stretch drive is here. The Oilers need to commit to playing sound defensively. They are capable of it. Now they have to show it.

SNAPSHOTS…

— Connor Murphy won’t make his Oilers debut tonight. He arrives late this afternoon and isn’t expected to play. He will practice with his team before making his debut against the Carolina Hurricanes on Friday.

— “He will take a lot of stress off of the D-men playing a lot of minutes. Our issue has been defending five-on-five and he will help the penalty kill. I think his biggest improvement will be at five-on-five and not giving up as many chances. It will also help our pairs and give all the guys a good partner (lefty/righty),” said head coach Kris Knoblauch. He wouldn’t commit to whom Murphy would play with yet, but I’m sure he knows. He did hint it might depend on how things go tonight, as we see some new pairings.

— Bowman outlined how he thinks Samanski can help the Oilers. “He’s a more of a lower-risk guy. I like his energy. He’s a bigger guy who is pretty smart about not putting himself in bad positions. He doesn’t take a lot of risks and maybe that’s why he’s not a bigger scorer, but he’s been an effective player in Bakersfield on an offensive line. When they put Howard, Samanski and Hutson together that line was really successful for a large stretch of the year and Samanski was a big part of that. I think he can play with good players and play offensively, but he understands the style of player he needs to be to be successful, and we would like to see if he can do it in the stretch run here.”

— The Oilers are considering adding a veteran third-line centre, but Boone Jenner and Charlie Coyle might not be available. Columbus won last night, and they host Nashville tonight and Florida on Thursday. The Blue Jackets are three points out of a playoff spot. They play 11 of their final 23 games against teams below them in the standings, but they have 12 against teams like Carolina (3x), Boston and Montreal (2x), Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Detroit, New York Islanders and Washington. If they defeat Nashville and Florida, I’d be surprised if Don Waddell opted to sell. Making the playoffs is likely more important for Columbus than adding picks or a prospect.

— I’m interested to see what Steve Staios does before the deadline. The Senators are better than their record, but they are five back of Boston for the final wild card spot, and they also trail Washington, Columbus and Philadelphia. Jumping over four teams is a challenge. Claude Giroux, David Perron, Nick Cousins and Nick Jenson are pending UFAs. If they opt to sell, Jensen will have value as a right-shot defender. Cousins is a good agitator in a fourth-line role. Giroux would garner a lot of interest, especially because he only has a $2 million AAV. He’s still great on faceoffs and can chip in offensively, but does he want to move for a chance to chase a ring?

— Mattias Janmark is going to have shoulder surgery tomorrow. He’s likely done for the season.

LINEUPS…

Oilers…

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Roslovic – Samanski – Savoie
Lazar – Henrique – Frederic

Walman– Bouchard
Nurse – Emberson
Ekholm – Stastney

Ingram

Those bottom two lines are just a guess, as Samanski wasn’t in Edmonton yesterday and the Oilers had an optional skate this morning. The McDavid and Draisaitl lines practiced together yesterday. The D pairs are based on how they practiced yesterday. Kris Knoblauch did say after practice that the D pairs would be different from the last game, so maybe he will start with those. The team is struggling, so why not switch it up to get their attention? Murphy will draw in on Friday so there will be a different look in that game regardless.

Connor Ingram gets his third consecutive start. He started his first three games with the Oilers but hasn’t started three in a row since December 27th. Tristan Jarry has yet to start three in a row for Edmonton and has started two in a row twice. Jarry needs to find his game. From my seat, he had a rough practice yesterday as he got scored on a lot, getting beat in multiple different spots. Goalie coach Peter Aubry is trying to help Jarry fine-tune his game while also rebuilding his confidence. Jarry will have had over a week between starts to work on making small adjustments. He has had very few solid starts since joining the Oilers.

Senators…

Batherson – Stutzle – Giroux
Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig
Cousins – Pinto – Amadio
Halliday – Eller – Zetterlund

Sanderson – Zub
Chabot – Jensen
Kleven – SpenceUllmark

The Oilers can’t take Ottawa lightly. If the Senators had even average goaltending, they’d comfortably be in a playoff spot. The Senators have allowed the fewest shots on goal at five-on-five but allowed the 13th most goals. You can look at any site that tracks expected goals against five-on-five, and the Senators have the lowest number. Their goalies simply haven’t been good enough. In 32 games, Linus Ullmark has an ugly -16.8 goals saved above expected, while Leevi Merilinen is at -17.7 in 20 games. In the 51 games started by those two they are a combined -34.5 goals saved above expected. Awful.

However, since returning from his personal absence, Linus Ullmark has been much better. In his four starts since returning to the team, Ullmark hasn’t allowed more than two goals in a game. He’s allowed seven goals and posted a .918Sv% and a 1.73 GAA. Overall, Ottawa is 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and allowed 24 goals.