Washington has the best record in the NHL this season. Edmonton has the second-best record since October 15th and these top teams will face off tonight for the first of two meetings this season. The Oilers will be without their captain, Connor McDavid, as he sits out the first of a three-game suspension. That will take a bit of shine off the game, but it should still be a great game as the Capitals and Oilers have the two best records since January 1st.

Washington is 6-0-3 in the New Year, while Edmonton is 7-2-0. Both are playing great since the calendar turned to 2025.

Washington is 7th in GF/GP (3.22), 1st in GA/GP (1.78), 10th in PP% (29.2%) and tied for second in PK% (88%).

Edmonton is 4th in GF/GP (3.33), 4th in GA/GP (2.33), 4th in PP% (33.3%) and their only concern is they are 66.7% on the

PK over their last nine games: Washington has outscored teams 17-9 at 5×5 while Edmonton sits at 21-15.

The Capitals’ success has come at both ends of the rink.

First off, they excel at limiting goals against. They’ve been very stingy defensively leading the league all season with a 2.43 GAA. They are 6th in shots against at 5×5 and 9th in SA/60. Edmonton ranks 7th in GAA at 2.74 and 11th in SA at 5×5 and 8th in SA/60.

The Capitals’ other main success has been their ability to finish, and the main question is: Will that continue?

Washington ranks first in GF at 5×5 with 107. However, they are 27th in shots for and 24th in SF/60. They have the best SH% at 11.12%.

Edmonton is 5th in GF with 100. They rank first in shots for and 1st in SF/60. They are 25th in SH% at 8.32.

Edmonton has 100 goals on 1202 shots at 5×5 while Washington has 107 goals on 962 shots. It is a stark contrast. Both have offensive success, but Washington has done it with significantly fewer shots.

Washington has two forwards under a 10SH%, while the Oilers have seven in tonight’s lineup. The Capitals have eight forwards at 16SH% or higher and the Oilers have two.

“They have three lines who can score and four lines who are very responsible,” said Kris Knoblauch. “I think a lot of their timely goals are coming off the rush, they have a lot of speed to their lineup and a lot of simplicity and they work hard. They also don’t cheat a lot. They play a sound game and it starts with their team defence.”

This will be a huge test for the Oilers, especially without McDavid in the lineup.

— The Capitals are 17-5-3 when scoring first and the Oilers are 17-3-3. The Capitals are the best team at coming back in games. They are 14-5-2 when allowing the first goal, while the Oilers have the fifth best winning% at 12-11.

— Alex Ovechkin is 21 goals shy of passing Wayne Gretzky for the goal scoring record of 895. Ovechkin has 21 goals in 30 games this season. He leads the NHL in goals/game, while Leon Draisaitl leads the NHL in goals with 33. They are the only two active players to score 50 goals three times. Ovechkin has done it nine times, while Draisaitl has done it three times. Draisaitl is on pace to score 50 goals and 50 assists for the fourth time in his career, one more than Ovechkin.

— If Draisaitl reaches 50 goals and 100 points he’ll become only the 11th player in NHL history to do both four times. And if he reaches 50 goals and 50 assists he’ll be the 10th player to do that four times. He’s having a great season and putting himself among the elite of the elite when it comes to the combination of goal scoring and passing.

— Jeff Skinner will play more minutes tonight. In order for him to get more ice time moving forward, I believe he will need to make more plays with the puck. Too often he has the puck, and doesn’t move it quick enough, and then the opening for the play is gone. To play with McDavid or Draisaitl you need to move the puck quickly, whether that is out of the defensive zone or inside the offensive zone.

— John Klingberg won’t play this week. Klingberg has been skating for six months. He could have went to training camp, but he wanted to get stronger and be closer to 100% when he returned. He is confident he can get back to the dynamic player he was his first seven seasons in Dallas. His hip issues, limited his mobility the past few seasons and he was very open and honest about how them made him less effective as a defender.

“It was for sure a struggle without the puck,” told me yesterday. “To be able to react to what players were doing if they were going right or left, I’d have to react and it’s almost like I kept a little bit of a distance just because I didn’t want to give up a Grade-A, and that led to an easy zone entry or whatever. I’m pretty excited to get back to that and feeling like I can really trust my skating again.”

Klingberg added this is the best he’s felt in years. His motion (in his hip) is the best it has ever been, and if that is the case this signing could turn out great. Time will tell, and we will have to see him in games.

— With Klingberg not playing this week, that leaves the Oilers having six games before the 4 Nations Face-Off break, and 13 games before the trade deadline. Klingberg was adamant he wants to play before the break, but even next Monday might be too early. We will see, but ideally, the Oilers get at least 10 games to see where Klingberg is at. Even if he looks good, I could see the Oilers adding another depth defender. Most likely a left shot as they have Troy Stecher, Josh Brown and Phil Kemp on the right side.

— These teams have been very even in the McDavid/Draisaitl era. The Oilers are 7-7-1 v. the Capitals. Last year Edmonton swept the season series, Washington swept it in 2023 and Edmonton swept it in 2022. They didn’t play in 2021 and Edmonton won the only meeting during the 2020 season.

With McDavid out, I could see Knoblauch going with these lines. The Henrique, Hyman, Skinner combination played well together when Connor Brown got a few games with McDavid. Knoblauch is never afraid to try different combinations in game, so we could see others, but I’d lean to him starting the game like this. Granted they haven’t played a lot, but in the limited time it was successful, and Skinner has worked best with Henrique.

The Capitals’ top two lines have been very productive. They’d like more scoring from their third line, and I’d expect GM Chris Patrick to look for an upgrade before the trade deadline.

Logan Thompson has played great for Washington. They’ve rotated goalies quite regularly, other than the week Charlie Lindgren was out with a concussion, but Thompson has been the more consistent goalie, and it sounds like he is going to play a bit more down the stretch.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Both teams are rested and haven’t played since Saturday. Washington wins a fast-paced, close game 3-2 in OT.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Draisaitl steps up, again, in the absence of McDavid and scores his 34th goal of the season. Ovechkin scores his 875th career goal.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Kapanen scores his first goal in 10 games.