I work a part-time job in the evenings now, so I can’t watch a lot of the games. Perhaps that’s not necessarily a bad thing based on what I’ve been reading and listening to lately.

The Oilers are looking grim these days, as they are barely limping along in seventh place in the division at 6-6-4 through 16 games. Although the Anaheim Ducks, of all teams, have started to pull away at the top of the division, I don’t expect that to last long. They are still only a mere two points from second place in the division, so the Oilers are far from too far gone just yet. Funny thing is, a lot of other good teams are struggling too.

The Panthers, Edmonton’s opponent in the Cup Final the last two seasons running and the current champs, are one point worse than the Oilers and also mired in seventh in their division. The Dallas Stars were neck and neck with the Oilers in the other wild card spot until the end of October, when they went on a three-game win streak that pushed them into second place in the Central. The Kings, a playoff contender for a few years now, are only two points better than the Oilers right now and still out of a playoff spot.

The root cause, so the word on the street goes, is that the team has become deflated and devoid of emotion now that they are not playing in high-intensity playoff games anymore, which has led to approaching regular-season games with less emotion. Although if the Oilers’ social accounts are to be believed, that is being remedied as we speak.

There are many reasons for this, as it’s a death-by-a-thousand-cuts kind of situation. It’s now past the time for excuses, so the team needs to perform some introspection and improve. Let’s go through the analysis and see what’s up.

The “nuclear” duo is still doing their thing, with Connor McDavid producing 22 points in 16 games and Leon Draisaitl bringing up the second spot on the team with 18 points in 16 games. It is worth noting that this is only good for sixth for McDavid and 22nd for Draisaitl in the entire league. Still, despite the fact that we are unaccustomed to seeing the two of them that far down the league ladder, it is probably a byproduct of other players on other teams stepping up and the rest of the Oilers’ self-inflicted problems. Nonetheless, a team that is having success needs its best players to be its best players, and that is what we are getting right now with McDavid and Draisaitl. Some say McDavid is not scoring enough goals, but that is nitpicking. Who cares how he produces his offense? If it helps a teammate score or he buries it himself, it counts the same. A point for McDavid is a point for the Oilers, and it still drives winning when the supporting cast does its job.

Ever since Ryan Nugent-Hopkins hit 104 points back in 2022-23, his offense has declined, down to 49 points last season. He did crack the 20-goal mark for the first time in five seasons, so it was not a total loss, but everyone knows there is more there. Nuge has the talent to be a first-line center on a lot of teams in the NHL, and he would be on this team too if it were not for the presence of the two best players in the league. If he keeps scoring at this rate, he is on pace for an 82-point season, which would be his best since that 104-point explosion. The hands and vision are still there, the reading of plays is still there, and when he gets into a rhythm on the half-wall with the top unit, he makes everything easier for the other four guys.

The power play that set a new NHL record four seasons ago dipped to 12th last year, which felt strange given the personnel. This season, it is clicking at 33.3 percent, second in the league and bested only by the Penguins at 35.7 percent. For years, it was a mystery why a team with this much firepower did not finish first every season. It is nice to see that in the early going, they have a shot at doing exactly that. The puck movement is cleaner, pucks are getting to the interior with more speed, and there is less hesitation at the blue line. When the top unit plays with pace and the second unit chips in enough to keep penalty killers honest, teams get into penalty trouble, and Edmonton cashes in.

A PK that finished 16th last season is now tied for 11th at 81.8 percent. It is not setting the league on fire like the PP, but this is the highest-placed PK I remember in the McDavid era. So far, so good. If they can keep it up for the rest of the season, that will only help, especially if you can combine it with a fantastic power play. I do not recall a recent season where both the PP and PK were firing at the same time. If that holds up into the spring, it would be a first in the best possible way.

They are sitting eighth in the league in blocked shots with 249, only 35 off Boston’s pace at 284. This is half the battle defensively. If you want individuals, Darnell Nurse is currently second in the league in blocks with 45, behind only Brayden McNabb with 47. Mattias Ekholm is also up there, ninth at 35, tied with Erik Cernak, Alexandre Carrier, and Elias Pettersson. Jake Walman rounds out the top three on the team with 22, Evan Bouchard is close behind him with 21, and Adam Henrique and Ty Emberson are the last ones at the 20-block mark so far. Getting in shooting lanes matters. This is part of playing defense. Now, if only they remembered the rest of playing defense, we would be set.

Right now, Nuge sits at minus-11, tied with Bouchard for worst on the team. Having two of the team’s greatest offensive weapons underwater at even strength is not a good thing because it means on any given night, either player could win the game with a key goal or pass, but could also give one back the other way. That is not good enough. Both of these players know better, and both should be better. Nuge has not posted this kind of plus-minus since the darkest days of the decade of darkness. Those teams lacked talent, depth, and capable veterans. This one does not have that excuse.

It is also worth noting that, as well as Nuge is doing offensively, it might be a house of cards if it is riding on a 21.7 percent shooting percentage. His career average is only 12.1 percent, which means one of two things. If we are lucky, this heater lasts all season and into the playoffs. If we are not, it corrects back to normal, and the point totals come down. The right answer is to shore up his neutral-zone details and let the offense be what it will be.

The Oilers are sitting 16th in the league in goals for. Considering the team’s aspirations to win the Stanley Cup and the firepower this squad has, that is not good enough. They should be, at the bare minimum, in the top ten. The frustrating part is that this is compounded by brutal puck luck. They currently sport a league-worst .952 PDO, which is the combination of shooting percentage and save percentage at even strength. It usually trends back toward 1.000 over time. On the flip side, Connor Bedard is leading the league in points and certainly benefits from Chicago’s PDO sitting at the top end at 1.043. Sometimes you have to be lucky and good. Getting Zach Hyman back and fully up to speed should help the finishing talent, and a little regression to the mean would not hurt either.

I do not blame either Stuart Skinner or Calvin Pickard for their numbers, because they can only stop so much if the team in front of them is not up to snuff defensively. As you can see below, they have not been. Before the Avalanche game, Skinner’s save percentage had climbed from .848 to .899. We have not seen a full 60-minute effort from the skaters in quite some time, so until the team game tightens up, I am loath to pin it all on the goalies. That is not to say they are above criticism. There is always room for improvement for any NHL player, and both Skinner and Pickard should be looking in the mirror and asking what they can do to help the cause. Better reads on lateral plays, cleaner rebounds, and fighting through traffic are always relevant.

Of course, this has started rumors that the Oilers should target Juuse Saros or Ilya Sorokin. Both are excellent, but big-ticket goaltenders approaching 30 are not long-term solutions unless the contract structure is clean. There is a huge risk to deals that run into a goalie’s late 30s, and both of those players have a lot of miles on their bodies already. It does not mean you ignore the possibility. It means the price, the term, and the fit need to be airtight.

Still, if nothing changes, management will have to consider an ambitious trade, or at least something smaller, like moving Pickard and trying a different look with the backup. There are only so many internal buttons to push before you look outside.

Yes, you read that right. Last season’s Cup finalists currently sport the third-worst goals against in the entire league with 57 allowed. Related to that, they are fourth worst in goal differential at minus-10. Only Nashville, Calgary, and St. Louis are worse. That is terrible company to keep. Invert those numbers, and you will see the Avalanche sitting near the top in both GF and GA. That explains why they thumped the Oilers 9-1 on November 8. You cannot win games in the NHL based solely on special teams. Edmonton needs a double correction. They need to score more at five-on-five, and they need to keep more pucks out of their net at five-on-five. Do not point the entire finger at Skinner for that last part either. He was showing signs of improvement before the Colorado debacle. This is a team issue.

Some say Bouchard is the epicenter of the problems, and they might be onto something, though he is not the only one. As mentioned, he is tied with Nuge for worst plus-minus on the team, and the line stats tell a story. For the sake of brevity, let’s focus on the big three. All stats below are five-on-five and listed as GF-GA when a given pair is on the ice.

With McDavid and Bouchard together, the Oilers are 2-8. When McDavid is out there without Bouchard, the number flips to 7-5. With Draisaitl and Bouchard together, it is 4-5, and without Bouchard, Draisaitl is 8-3. With Nuge and Bouchard together, it is 1-2, and without Bouchard, Nuge is 4-9, which shows he has his own issues away from Bouchard, too. Keep in mind, McDavid and Draisaitl have both played at least 100 minutes with Bouchard this season, and both spend a lot of time together. Nuge actually plays more time away from Bouchard than with him, over 100 minutes apart and only 67 together, so some of Nuge’s damage is independent.

Part of this is because his partner, Ekholm, a usually reliable defensive stalwart, has struggled too. The numbers hold up here as well. They still play together the vast majority of the time because they built chemistry last season, and there is no reason to detonate a pairing that has a strong track record over a small-sample skid. That said, the splits are ugly. Together they are 3-13. When Bouchard plays without Ekholm, he is 3-1. When Ekholm plays without Bouchard, he is 5-5. You can read this in a few ways. Maybe Ekholm is the issue, maybe Bouchard is the issue, or maybe the pairing is simply out of rhythm. The only logical conclusion is that both should share some blame, and the entire pairing needs a reset. Shorter shifts, simpler exits, cleaner gaps in the neutral zone, and fewer risky pinches would help all around.

The Oilers currently sit 30th in hits with 274. That is a long way from Boston at 407 and Florida at 401. Yes, hit counts can be noisy from rink to rink, but the trend is still the trend. Edmonton is a town that loves its hitters and physical players, and we are not seeing enough pushback. A team this battle-tested should be leaning on opponents more often. They are not even trending up, as they sit 31st in hits per 60. This has to improve if the Oilers want a favorable playoff seed and another deep run.

This explains the rumors that the Oilers are interested in Kiefer Sherwood, a power forward in Vancouver on an expiring deal who is currently second in the league in hits with 70. For reference, Vasily Podkolzin leads the Oilers with 52. Sherwood has scored between 10 and 20 goals in each of the last two seasons and is off to a hot start with nine goals and 10 points in 16 games. That is riding a 29 percent shooting percentage, which is bonkers and not sustainable, so you do not pay for the heater. If the circumstances line up and the price is sane, you could see management exploring it. Otherwise, you look for a cheaper banger who can skate and forecheck without taking dumb penalties.

I am looking at you, Trent Frederic and Andrew Mangiapane. Part of the reason you were brought here is to be irritating and hard to play against, and you have a mere six penalty minutes between the two of you. Six. Everyone knows the team is missing Corey Perry and Evander Kane in those roles, so someone has to take a few more pieces out of the opponent’s top-four and make their lives unpleasant. In case you are wondering, Darnell Nurse currently leads the Oilers in PIMs with 10, tied with Ike Howard, who, I can only assume, because of his inexperience, is taking careless penalties he should not be. There is a line between playing mean and playing dumb. The Oilers are not close enough to that line right now. They need to get there and live on it without blowing games from the box.

This is where the season settles into a rhythm. You cannot keep looking at last spring and hoping the same group will just wake up and bulldoze everyone. The schedule will not save you. The standings will not pause for you. They need a run of 10 to 12 games where the details are non-negotiable. Puck support has to be tighter in the defensive zone, wingers have to be available on the walls, and the first pass out of the zone needs to be the simple one more often than not. In the neutral zone, hold the lines and force teams to chip pucks. In the offensive zone, funnel pucks into the interior and crash for second chances instead of living on the perimeter and waiting for a perfect seam.

Coaching can push some buttons. Shorten the bench when a lead is on the line. Spot your best faceoff guys in the defensive zone after icings. Give the hot line the extra shift when you smell blood. On the back end, consider a few gentle tweaks, like spot-shifting Bouchard with a different partner for a couple of shifts when a game is getting away, or giving Ekholm an extra D-zone start with Nurse to stop a surge. Those are not permanent changes. They are little levers you pull to change a game state and help a struggling pair find the next clean shift.

Management can wait and see for a few more weeks, which is probably the right play, because the cap is tight and the market is still sleepy. The internal bets are simple enough. Get Hyman fully up to speed, let McDavid’s finishing normalize, and hope Nuge’s heater lasts long enough to bank standings points while the five-on-five process improves. Hope the PDO climbs back toward even. If it does not, then yes, you look at a goalie, a defensive defenseman who can eat D-zone starts, or a heavy winger who can live on the forecheck. You do not blow your best assets in November. You keep your powder dry and make the right move when it matters.

This team is struggling right now, no question, but it is still early enough that they can make up ground as the season goes along and they get their game back. Sooner rather than later would be optimal. This is a veteran team with smart coaches and an aggressive front office, and an owner willing to sign off on what it takes to succeed. Those are essential ingredients for success. Only time will tell how long it takes to turn it around, but the path is not complicated. Play cleaner in front of your goalies, keep the special teams humming, get a bit of finish from the middle six, and throw a few more hits to tilt the ice. Do those things for a month, and the standings will look very different very quickly.