Remember the summer when Darnell Nurse signed his eight-year extension? He wasn’t the only big-name defenceman who got paid. Players like Cale Makar, Zach Werenski, Dougie Hamilton, and Miro Heiskanen all signed new deals in the month leading up to Nurse’s extension with the Oilers.
One thing to remember is that not all contracts are created equally. What I mean by that is the amount of team control, or RFA years, that a player has left can drastically change their value. There was no question that Nurse wasn’t on the level of Makar, Werenski, or Heiskanen but those players all had a handful of RFA years remaining on their contracts, which lowers the value.
It’s a similar reason as to why teams go with the bridge option on younger players. The player doesn’t hold all that much negotiating power, so as long as the team stays within their RFA years, they can usually get the player signed to a pretty reasonable deal.
For Nurse, the Oilers had already bridged him twice and he was scheduled the become a UFA at the end of the 2021-22 season. The Oilers had to pay top dollar because not only was he coming off a career year, but he would have been free to sign anywhere in the league the following summer and there was legitimate fear in the organization about what could happen if he put together another strong offensive season.
He could have commanded a lot and the threat of him walking for nothing to a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs, who employed his former Ontario Hockey League general manager at the time, forced the Oilers to pay up to avoid that scenario.
Now, let’s look ahead to this summer. The Oilers have another quality young blueliner who needs a new contract — Evan Bouchard. But there is a bit of a difference here. Whereas Nurse was slated to hit the open market the following season, Bouchard still has two more years of RFA control before he can before a UFA.
Though the threat of arbitration or an offer sheet for a player with the offensive numbers of Bouchard is a very real thing, the remaining two years of team control should actually knock down Bouchard’s cost a little bit. The other thing working in the team’s favour is that Bouchard has produced less offensively than he did the previous season.
Just like the summer when the team signed Nurse, the market will also dictate just how much money Bouchard deserves on a long-term deal, which is absolutely the direction the Oilers should be going here.
That’s why today’s news that the Washington Capitals have signed Jakob Chychrun to an eight-year extension is significant. The contract comes with an AAV of $9 million and not only makes Chychrun the highest-paid blueliner on the Capitals, but puts him in a tie for the 10th-highest AAV amongst all NHL defencemen.
At 26 years old and soon to be 27, Chychrun was slated to become a UFA at the end of the season, so Washington is buying up eight UFA years, which certainly drove the price up.
It’s not totally an apples-to-apples comparison between Bouchard and Chychrun but it gives us a decent ballpark. Chychrun is on this third team of his career and has racked up over 500 games played already. He also is currently sitting at 18 goals on the season, which is tied for a career high. There are a lot of things to like about Chychrun, but he doesn’t have the offensive ceiling that Bouchard does and we know that offensive numbers can drive up the AAV for defensemen.
Apr 9, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Buffalo Sabres defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (26) and left wing Jeff Skinner (53) celebrate a goal scored by Dahlin against the Dallas Stars during the first period at the American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The other contract that is worth keeping in mind is the Rasmus Dahlin extension in Buffalo.
The Sabres gave him an eight-year extension that comes with a whopping $11 million AAV. The deal bought up a handful of RFA years and the first five UFA seasons for Dahlin.
It’s a staggering number but the Sabres’ belief is that Dahlin will continue to grow and become on the more complete defensemen in the league, and with the salary cap rising, the AAV will only continue to look better and better.
That’s the mindset that the Oilers should have with Bouchard. Any sort of short-term deal wouldn’t make a lot of sense because if Bouchard continues to put up strong numbers, the cap continues to rise, and more defenseman get signed, his value is really only going to go up.
Bouchard is a more valuable player than Chychrun, but because he has two more RFA years, his value might actually be pretty close to Chychrun.
I believe Bouchard’s camp could look at the Rasmus Dahlin deal as their starting point and while Bouchard is not as strong in his own end and is prone to more ‘Grade A’ mistakes, his offensive numbers are a lot better, and again, that’s what drives up contracts.
I believe the Oilers could use Chychrun as their starting point and the Bouchard camp could point to Dahlin’s deal, which leads me to believe a compromise could come at around $10 million.
You can argue about whether or not you believe that Bouchard is worth that, but the reality is that the market will play a large role in determining what a long-term deal looks like for Bouchard and the market says that he could very easily land a contract that’s worth north of $9 million per season.
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