Good morning, everyone, and a happy Monday to all of you. I’ve got a brand new mailbag ready to go after taking your questions and sending them to the crew for their take on whatever is on your mind. This week, we’re discussing the Oilers’ scoring woes, the defence, the penalty kill, and more. If you’ve got a question you’d like to ask, email it to me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk, and I’ll get to you as soon as I can.
Nov 9, 2024; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) celebrates with forward Zach Hyman (18) after scoring a goal against the Vancouver Canucks during the third period at Rogers Arena.
1) Mitch asks – Even though there is no real explanation, what is everyone’s guess or theory on why the Oilers are struggling so much to score goals?
Jason Gregor:
Bit of tough luck, but also I don’t think their shot placement has been great. They’ve hit goalie’s chest and pads a lot, but all it takes is one game like Vancouver where seven go in, a few that were bad goals by Lankinen, and the team comes the rink in better spirits. The struggling PP also was a factor as most top guys totals are down, except for Draisaitl.
Baggedmilk:
I think the boys are gripping the stick a little bit, and it’s causing them to overcomplicate the approach. On Saturday night in Vancouver, the boys picked up a few garbage goals by shooting the puck and cleaning up the mess, and I believe doing more of that will open up some lanes for the more intricate ideas. Keep it simple, get some confidence, we’ll be alright. Edmonton’s shooting percentage is still only 6.92% even after putting up six even strength goals against the Canucks.
Oct 27, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) handles the puck during the third period of the game against the Detroit Red Wings at Little Caesars Arena.
2) Richard asks – Connor McDavid has had a slow start to the season by his own standards. What is missing from his game right now?
Jason Gregor:
His explosiveness. His top end speed the past three seasons was 24.10 MPH, 24.14 and 24.19. This year it is 22.97. He hasn’t dominated a game yet this year, but we did see a few glimpses on Saturday in Vancouver.
Baggedmilk:
This just reminds me of last year, a little bit. He had a slow start in 2023-24 and ended up pushing for the league lead in points by the time all was said and done. I’d bet on him doing the same this season. That said, I think he’s looking pass a little bit too much in moments when he could shoot. McDavid has a hell of a shot and using it a bit more might open up some lanes for him.
Jun 10, 2024; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Edmonton Oilers defenseman Mattias Ekholm (14) celebrates scoring with defenseman Evan Bouchard (2) against the Florida Panthers during the first period in game two of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena.
3) Yves asks – If you were to rank these Oilers’ issues in terms of importance what would your rankings look like? The special teams, lack of 5v5 scoring, defensive coverage, and goaltending.
Jason Gregor:
Defensive coverage has been the best. I’d rank concerns from most as of today…PK, PP, goaltending, 5×5 scoring…
Baggedmilk:
I’m going to go with PK, d-coverage, goaltending, 5v5 scoring, PP. The reason for the order is because the 1) the PK is a coin flip right now. That’s a disaster. 2) When the Oilers give up chances in their own zone they can be 10-bell opportunities. Example: Third period against Vegas. 3) Self explanatory. 4) The lack of 5v5 scoring means they can’t as easily cover up the mistakes. 5) PP same as the 5v5 scoring, but I see the power play starting to warm up a little. It’s only a matter of time.
Nov 6, 2023; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Referee Kelly Sutherland calling a penalty on Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) in a game against the Vancouver Canucks in the third period at Rogers Arena.
4) Mathieu asks – How much of the Oilers’ penalty killing issues are the result of losing Ryan McLeod, Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, etc? It’s tough not to connect dots between those role players leaving and Edmonton’s PK suffering.
Jason Gregor:
I’d say Ceci and Desharnais are the biggest losses as that is both of their top two RD on the kill. They lack continuity, but the biggest difference is the reduction in shots blocked. Last year Nurse blocked 14.29/60, Desharnais 14.18, Ceci 6.73 and Ekholm 3.7. They were the top-four, and most regular D-men. They had a combined 38.9/60.
So far this year, Ekholm is at 10.41, Nurse 10.22, Emberson 7.29 and Kulak 5.02. Last year Nurse was a regular shot blocker on one unit and Desharnais on the other. They don’t have that this year. They need to block more shots. Also the goalies need to make more saves. Skinner and Pickard’s 5×5 numbers are fine, but their PK numbers are brutal.
Baggedmilk:
I think Ceci and Desharnais were probably more important for the PK than we gave them credit for. That said, the guys that are currently here need to do a better job of getting in the shooting/passing lanes, and they also need to be better at clearing the puck when they have an opportunity. Too often we see the puck get thrown right up the middle to an opponent’s stick, and it seems like every time that happens, the puck winds up in the net.
Sep 23, 2024; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers center Jeff Skinner (53) controls the puck against the Calgary Flames during the third period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-Imagn Images
5) Nicholas asks – It’s easy to point out what’s going wrong for the Oilers right now, but what do you see that’s going right? Any positives sticking out to the group?
Jason Gregor:
Brett Kulak is playing great. Off to the best offensive start of his career, but I’ve liked his overall play.
Draisaitl has 10 goals in 15 games and is on pace for his fourth 50 goal season. Despite being awful on special teams and sluggish 5×5 scoring they have a .500P% and they will return to practice on Monday in the second wildcard spot. They aren’t in a terrible spot, despite the slow start.
Baggedmilk:
The Oilers are in a playoff spot despite having some wild ebbs and flows through the first 15 games. It may not feel better than where we were a year ago but it’s still true.
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