Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Wednesday’s matchup between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers.
Stars vs. Oilers Odds
- Dallas Stars Moneyline: -127
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: +115
- Puck Line: Stars +1.5 (+188), Oilers +1.5 (-216)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -115, Under +102)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Stars (45-25 SU, 33-37 ATS, 28-36-6 O/U)
Dallas has the best record (16-4-3) in the NHL since Jan. 24, but since making a big splash at the trade deadline by acquiring star forward Mikko Rantanen, things haven’t been going quite as well. The Stars have won two in a row, but they’ve played .500 hockey since March 8, and Rantanen hasn’t scored a goal in six games.
The team hasn’t looked great at five-on-five, either. According to Evolving Hockey, the Stars have controlled just 45 percent of the expected goals (26th) and 47 percent of the shot attempts (21st) at five-on-five since acquiring Rantanen. However, Rantanen hasn’t been the only one who has been quiet.
Including Rantanen, the Stars have four players who have scored 25-plus goals this season. The others—Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Wyatt Johnston—have combined for just five goals since the trade deadline. Defenseman Thomas Harley leads the way with four goals and eight points in the last eight games.
Both Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith have done their part, though. Oettinger is 6-3-1 in his last 10 starts and is coming off a shutout against the Minnesota Wild, stopping all 32 shots he faced. Meanwhile, DeSmith has emerged as one of the best backups in the league, posting a 10-2-1 record since the start of December to go along with a 2.18 goals against average and a .927 save percentage.
Handicapping the Oilers (40-29 SU, 25-44 ATS, 31-37-1 O/U)
Edmonton returns from a three-day break, but the Oilers are still without their top stars as captain Connor McDavid and Hart Trophy favorite Leon Draisaitl remain out with injuries. Given the circumstances, the Oilers performed well versus the Seattle Kraken in Saturday’s 5-4 win.
Adam Henrqiue scored his first goal since March 1, and Jeff Skinner scored for the second game in a row. Zach Hyman also extended his point streak to three games with an assist. However, it was Ryan Nugent-Hopkins who stole the show with his hat trick performance. Nugent-Hopkins now has four goals and five assists in his last four games.
The Oilers controlled play versus the Kraken, owning 57 percent of the five-on-five shot attempts, but the top line of Nugent-Hopkins, Vasily Podkolzin, and Viktor Arvidsson was particularly good. Not only did they control 59 percent of the shot attempts, but owned more than 75 percent of the expected goals, according to Natural Stat Trick.
The third line of Skinner, Mattias Janmark, and Connor Brown also played well at five-on-five. The trio controlled 64 percent of the shot attempts and nearly 57 percent of the expected goals. That said, Edmonton will likely need all four lines to play well on Wednesday, as the Stars are a deep team with a lot of talent spread throughout their lineup.
This will be the final time the Stars and Oilers will meet in the regular season. They have met twice already, with each team winning one game. The Stars won 4-1 in Dallas back on Oct. 19, while the Oilers won the second matchup by a score of 5-4 at Rogers Place earlier this month.
Best Bet for Stars vs. Oilers
Dallas Stars Moneyline (-127) at Pinnacle
Dallas originally opened as a -138 moneyline favorite, but the betting market seems to think more of the Oilers in their current form than I do. The Stars haven’t been at their best over the past month, Edmonton has only ever played one game without McDavid and Draisaitl and there’s still a lot of uncertainty. Therefore, I believe this line movement is unjustified, and Dallas is an appealing bet at -127 odds.
