After authoring one of the most convincing wins of any team this entire postseason in Game 4, the Edmonton Oilers have the opportunity to advance to the third round Wednesday when they return to T-Mobile Arena to play Game 5 versus the Vegas Golden Knights.

The Golden Knights are a slightly smaller favourite in Game 5 than they were in their last matchup on home ice, and currently hold a 55.5% chance of winning this do-or-die matchup based on current betting odds.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

It’s pretty rare to see a team entirely steamroll their opponent for sixty minutes in any playoff game the way the Oilers did in Game 4 versus the Knights, as generally there tends to be somewhat of a push from the team trailing by multiple goals at some point.

The Oilers earned a 2-0 lead late in the first period and did an excellent job of preventing high-quality chances against from that point forward while continuing to create chances at the other end of the ice. Edmonton held a 2.96 to 1.96 edge in expected goal share, but watching the game, it certainly felt a little more uneven than those numbers suggest.

Edmonton continued to receive production from further down the lineup card, as Adam Henrique scored both of its first-period goals before Evander Kane put the game out of reach on a muffed shot midway through the second period.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combined for just one assist, and that could be taken as a positive. This Oilers team currently looks far more capable of winning games without lofty offensive outputs from their dynamic duo, and Game 4 was another well rounded team win.

The Oilers’ new-look defensive pairings were highly effective, as Brett Kulak’s steady play complemented Evan Bouchard well on the top pairing, while Darnell Nurse’s negative impact was minimized thanks to being used in a lesser role on the third pairing. Jake Walman continues to perform at an extremely high level and has helped John Klingberg offer surprisingly sound play this postseason.

Walman and Klingberg hold a 68% expected goal share this postseason and have outscored opponents 4 to 2. While Plus/Minus is somewhat of a flawed statistic, Walman owns an eye-popping +13 rating this postseason, which is the best of any skater by a margin of four.

Dating back to Game 3 of their series versus the Los Angeles Kings, the Oilers hold a 59.25% expected goal share at even strength. They played terribly in those two matchups versus the Kings, and it feels like that is preventing some observers from accepting how excellent their overall process has been since that point.

Stuart Skinner bounced back with a 23-save shutout in Game 4 that could provide a huge boost to his confidence. He now holds a -4.1 GSAx rating and .857 save percentage this postseason.

It feels as though the Knights were in as a full-fledged Stanley Cup contender entering the postseason, and for that reason, their underwhelming performance versus the Minnesota Wild did not draw much attention because they were able to earn some ugly wins, which is one key reason the Oilers looked to provide value as underdogs in Games 1 and 2 of this series as underdogs.

While the Oilers deserve plenty of credit for their performance so far this postseason, it is looking quite reasonable to believe the Knights are simply not as good as was widely speculated, as can often be the case for teams coming off a recent Stanley Cup championship.

Alex Pietrangelo looks to be a step slower and has not been overly effective this postseason. Brayden McNabb brings a physical edge, but his inability to drive play in the other direction has been quite apparent. The team’s third pairing of Zach Whitecloud and Nic Hague has also had trouble getting out of the defensive zone.

The Knights hold a 44.2% expected goal share in this series, which is not overly surprising as it has been clear that the Oilers have owned more of the sustained spells of offensive zone play. Vegas has been pinned in its own zone more consistently, while the Oilers defence core has been able to move the puck out much more effectively at the other end of the ice.

While the Knights have certainly been outplayed overall in this series, it hasn’t helped matters that Adin Hill has struggled in goal. Hill now holds a -5.6 GSAx rating and .876 save percentage across ten starts this postseason.

They always say earning the fourth win of any series is the toughest, and the Knights will surely offer a higher level of play in this series than we saw in Game 4. Still, they have generally looked quite underwhelming this postseason, even in the first round versus the Wild.

The Oilers have been the vastly superior team in this series and have carried the majority of the play, as far more skaters have been moving the needle in the right direction. The Oilers’ defensive core has moved the puck more effectively and is looking like a strength relative to a Knights unit whose greatest strength looks to be playing inside the defensive zone.

While it’s a safe bet that the Knights are capable of a better showing than we saw in Game 4, there still looks to be value in backing the Oilers as underdogs, given how much better they have been than Vegas in this series. At +100 or better, I see value backing the Oilers to close up the series Wednesday on the road.