After another strong performance in goal from Stuart Skinner in Game 4, the Edmonton Oilers will have the opportunity to secure a rematch versus the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final with a win Thursday evening. The Dallas Stars authored two respectable performances on the road in Games 3 and 4, but scored on just two of their 63 shots and were outscored 10-2.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Due to a combination of both injuries and variance, it’s often debatable if the Stanley Cup Final actually ends up being contested by the two best teams in the NHL, but for a second straight season, that looks likely to be the case. If the Oilers continue to receive strong play in goal from Skinner, they look to have no true weaknesses, but the Panthers also look to be an even more formidable opponent this year than last.

The Oilers suffered a critical loss in Game 4, as Zach Hyman suffered a season-ending wrist injury. Connor Brown will also be out of the lineup in tonight’s game with an undisclosed injury. The Oilers should be desperate to wrap this series up on Thursday and avoid allowing the Panthers a significant rest advantage and reduce the chances of any more injuries.

From a territorial perspective, Games 3 and 4 were far from the Oilers’ best performances of the postseason. They held just a 38.2% expected goal share and 3.43 xGA/60 in even-strength play but did do a reasonable job of limiting true defensive collapses, particularly in the third periods of those matchups.

Still, Skinner’s incredible .966 save percentage over the last two games was the greatest reason for the wins, and Edmonton will need to clean up it’s overall game to find success versus the Panthers if it is to get to that point.

The Oilers have been much less reliant on their elite power play to steal games this postseason, but it was a major reason the team was able to sneak out a win in Game 4, as it clicked twice and provided the team’s only offence aside from the two empty netters that put the game on ice.

Hyman’s loss will be difficult to replace, as he has clearly elevated his game in this series and was playing his best hockey of the season. The one silver lining to Hyman and Brown’s injuries, though, is that it does make it easy for Kris Knoblauch to go with 11 forwards and 7 defenders in this matchup, with Mattias Ekholm prepared to make his return to the lineup.

The Oilers have been able to offer top stars such as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl more reasonable workloads throughout this run compared to previous postseasons, which could pay dividends entering this matchup where the team will likely go with 11 forwards and offer more minutes to their best skaters.

Head coach Pete DeBoer and the Stars will undoubtedly be feeling a little hard done by to have lost both Games 3 and 4, which was certainly the way the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets felt after being eliminated by the Stars. In terms of for and against, they were two of the Stars’ best games of the postseason, but the offence remained surprisingly one-dimensional and was unable to convert on a number of opportunities.

The Stars once again offered a more aggressive forecheck early on in Game 4, but were unable to get anything past Skinner in the first period, which was undoubtedly their best period of the game. Their third-period push had to be viewed as a disappointment, as they generated very few quality scoring chances despite trailing on the scoreboard in a critical spot.

Roope Hintz was able to return to the lineup in Game 4, but on a number of loose pucks it was apparent that he did not have his usual level of mobility. The Stars’ top line of Hintz, Mikko Rantanen, and Jason Robertson held an 18.8% expected goal share and was outshot 8-to-3 in 11:24 of time-on-ice.

Robertson recorded the Stars’ only two goals over the last two games, and led the team by a wide margin with 2.16 expected goals and 17 shot attempts.

The Oilers’ overall process in Games 3 and 4 may not have been entirely convincing, but they still would my preferred choice in terms of betting on a side in this matchup considering their price tag of +110.

Edmonton took a step backwards defensively in Games 3 and 4 and could be due to allow more goals against if Skinner is not as razor-sharp as he was in those two games, but it has continued to generate plenty of quality scoring opportunities all series versus a Stars team that has struggled defensively for a massive sample of play.

This does look like a good spot to back Robertson to score once again at +270, which cashed as our best bet in Game 4 at the same price. Robertson once again led all skaters in quality scoring chances in Game 4, and is a notably streaky player who seems to have refound his scoring touch.