Edmonton will aim for a third straight win Monday night as they host the New Jersey Devils in the second game of a back-to-back and the betting market is expecting this to be a tight matchup.
Oilers vs. Devils Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -115
- Calgary Flames Moneyline: -105
- Puck Line: Devils -1.5 (+195), Oilers +1.5 (-250)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Matchup
The Oilers (6-5-1) are above .500 for the first time this season following Sunday’s 4-2 win over the Flames in Calgary. It marked their second straight victory without captain Connor McDavid. Edmonton went 1-2 as the home team in the second half of back-to-back games last season and they are 0-1 this season. Meanwhile, New Jersey was able to shut out the Canucks by a score of 6-0 on Wednesday in Vancouver, but the Devils were shutout 3-0 by the Flames in Calgary on Friday and they’ve lost five of their last seven games. Forward Nate Bastian was injured in the loss to the Flames and will miss several weeks of action.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for today’s game.
Handicapping the Oilers (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS, 3-8-1 O/U)
For the second game in a row, the Oilers’ top line scored within the first minute, with Leon Draisaitl netting a goal just 20 seconds in. Draisaitl has led the team with three goals and three assists over two games without McDavid, while Zach Hyman has scored in back-to-back games after a 10-game goalless start to the season. Contributions are coming from across the lineup, with only five players yet to register a point since McDavid’s absence.
However, since McDavid’s injury just 38 seconds into their Oct. 28 game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, Edmonton’s share of expected goals and shot attempts at five-on-five has dropped below 50 percent, per Evolving Hockey. Before his injury, the Oilers ranked sixth in expected goals and second in shot attempts. Despite finding some offense, they’re generating far fewer expected goals per 60 minutes without McDavid (2.21) compared to when he was in the lineup (3.28).
According to Natural Stat Trick, high-danger shot attempts at five-on-five favored Edmonton 14-9 before McDavid’s injury but have shifted to 8-12 against them since. The Oilers are now generating fewer shots and scoring chances while allowing more of both, and that means backup Calvin Pickard could see an increased workload against the Devils on Monday.
Handicapping the Devils (7-7 SU, 4-8 ATS, 6-7-1 O/U)
New Jersey has not lived up to expectations so far, in large part due to goaltending. The Devils were supposed to have one of the best goaltending tandems in the league, but that hasn’t been the case. That’s not to say that Jacob Markstrom hasn’t been good, he has, but he’s also been hit or miss. Markstrom has had some great games, but he’s had just as many bad games. Jake Allen has been inconsistent as well.
The Devils rank among the top-10 teams in goals per 60 minutes, having scored three-plus in 11 out of 14 games this season. Jack Hughes has been solid, with 12 points in his first 12 games. Same goes for Jesper Bratt. But Nico Hischier is off to an insanely hot start with 10 goals (15 points) in 14 games. Hischier, who has become a perennial contender for the Frank J. Selke Trophy, has never scored more than 31 goals in a single campaign before, so this is a good surprise. I’m not sure how sustainable it is, though.
Additionally, New Jersey has lost games where they’ve scored five goals despite ranking among the top-five teams in expected goals against per 60 minutes. I guess the good news is that the team is full of potential given what they were able to accomplish two seasons ago and early indications are that the team will be just fine. New Jersey grades out as the fourth-best team in five-on-five expected goals percentage according to Evolving Hockey.
My Best Bet
Head coach Sheldon Keefe might avoid starting Markstrom due to his record against the Oilers from his time with the Flames, which could put Jake Allen in line for his first start since Oct. 25. However, that decision is still to be determined, so let’s focus on a player prop.
Viktor Arvidsson Anytime Goal (+270) at Sports Interaction
Draisaitl, Viktor Arvidsson, and Vasily Podkolzin have looked solid over the last two games, controlling 65 percent of the shots, and I expect another strong performance from them on Monday. All three are appealing anytime goal-scorer bets. Podkolzin is worth a look at +600 odds after putting up four shots on goal in Sunday’s game, though his usage is a concern after logging a season-high 16:03 against the Flames.
Sports Interaction offers the best odds on Draisaitl (+135) and Arvidsson (+270) to score, with Arvidsson as my pick. He’s been impressive lately, leading all forwards with 17 shots on goal across his last five games, including three or more in four of those outings after a slower start. With just one goal so far, the two-time 30-goal scorer is primed to heat up.
