Oiler killers.

Growing up, it was a phrase used to describe the early 2000s Dallas Stars (we got you in 1997, though, Stars fans), the Minnesota Wild (the Wild won 17 straight home games against the Oilers from 2007 to 2011), or Patrick Kane when he played for the Chicago Blackhawks (Kane’s points per game are about 27 per cent higher vs. the Edmonton Oilers than his career average).

In my books, Oiler Killers are teams the Oilers struggle with, players who seem to up their game against the Oilers and goalies that become brick walls when playing the copper and blue. So, who are the Oiler Killers now? We looked at stats since the 2020 season to figure it out.  Note that these stats focus more on the regular season, which gives us an excuse to ignore perhaps the biggest current Oiler Killers of them all, the Florida Panthers.

Perhaps some of you will recall the infamous Hockey Night in Canada game that made a lot of headlines for the Oilers players praising the Lightning and their coach Jon Cooper after losing handily last season. Somewhat lost in that was a four-point performance by Nikita Kucherov that included a short-handed goal, an even-strength marker and two assists. Kucherov had a very quiet first period, looking disinterested at times. During the first intermission coverage, Elliotte Friedman’s feature was on Kucherov, with the expectation that he was going to wake up in the last two periods. And was he ever right?

Kucherov is among the league’s top scorers each season, but he brings it to another level when he plays the Oilers. Averaging over a point per game in his career, he has upped this to almost two points per game against Edmonton since the 2020 season. He is one of the players that your gameplan involves limiting chances and contributions more than a complete shutdown because you know he will find a way to make an impact on the game. So, how do the Oilers deal with him in their two meetings this season? Kucherov thrives when he’s able to set up on the half wall in the offensive zone. It allows him to find passing lanes and sift pucks on net if nothing is there. Keeping him out of this spot will be important to limiting his impact on the game. Forcing him to defend is the best way to limit his opportunities, so the Oilers might consider matching his line against one that can retain pucks in the offensive zone and force Kucherov to spend some of his shifts in the defensive zone. It’s hard to fully limit him on the power play when there’s inevitably more time and space to be had – the important thing is to not overcommit on the PK and instead try to clog lanes that he wants to pass through. The supporting cast Tampa has can make all of these things difficult and contributes to their team’s success season after season.

The Oilers see the Avalanche a bit more regularly than the Lightning, meaning we see more of Nathan MacKinnon. Averaging over a point per game in his career, the perennial Hart Trophy candidate is hard to keep off the scoreboard. Like Kucherov, though, he has brought his game to another level against the Oilers, with a 42.5 per cent improvement over his career points per game. This might be even higher but for a game last season where MacKinnon was given a game misconduct for steamrolling Connor Ingram with a period left to play, leaving him pointless for the night.

MacKinnon’s game is less finesse and more overpowering opponents, using his speed and physicality to enter the offensive zone with possession and cause havoc. He also possesses a great shot and can thread the needle with a pass when needed. The Oilers see the Avalanche three times this season, with two of them being at altitude in Denver, and keeping MacKinnon in check will be key to coming away with points in those matchups. The key to limiting chances for him is trying to snuff out attacks before they develop. If MacKinnon has the puck with speed through the neutral zone, it’s already too late – maintaining tight gaps, protecting the middle and forcing him to the boards, and stifling neutral-zone speed are a must to contain him. With the other offensive weapons the Avs possess, quick transitions can flip the game very quickly. Oilers defencemen will need to ensure they have MacKinnon within their sights (and gaps) at all times and will need help with aggressive backchecks from their forwards to assist with clogging the neutral zone. Matching the size and speed that MacKinnon has will require an “all-hands-on-deck” approach from the Oilers this year. The differences between MacKinnon and Kucherov demonstrate what excellent parity and variety the league’s superstars have today.

Bobby McMann might be a bit more surprising to see on this list, but his presence shows why the Oilers were exploring acquiring him near last year’s trade deadline. McMann ultimately moved from the Toronto Maple Leafs to the Seattle Kraken last year, meaning the Oilers will see him four times this season. He is a big-bodied forward who has great foot speed, and he often saw time in the Maple Leafs’ top-six because of it. McMann is expected to play an even larger role for the Kraken this season as he’s pencilled in on the top line with Matty Beniers and Jordan Eberle right now.

McMann might be excited to see the Oilers a bit more often this year as he’s had great success against them in his career. In seven career games, his six goals and seven points blow his career comparables out of the water. While he’s a different player than MacKinnon, his combination of size and speed is also what has caused issues for the Oilers. McMann helps in the transition game and also manages to find his way to scoring areas in the offensive zone. Containing him this season will mean limiting his ability to have straight-line speed – having defenders stay above him and forcing him to stand still as much as possible will limit his ability to do damage. Staying in lanes and not allowing him to get his elite shot off will also serve the Oilers well. While the goal is to limit Kucherov and MacKinnon’s time with the puck, forcing McMann to be more of a playmaker might be the better bet, as this gives him less of an opportunity to take advantage of his north-south speed and shot. Given his role on this Kraken team this year, the Oilers could try to match up their shutdown players against the Kraken’s top line. If they’re able to win this matchup, easier matchups lurk for the Oilers’ top-scoring lines.

Ilya Sorokin has emerged as one of the league’s top goaltenders in recent years, so it’s not surprising to see him on this list. Sorokin was a runner-up for the Vezina Trophy last year, and he delivered a fitting performance against the Oilers last season. He made 35 saves for a 1-0 shutout victory at Rogers Place in January and truly was the reason the Isles walked away with a win that night. Sorokin had one other shutout against the Oilers since 2020, contributing to save percentages and goals against average metrics that exceed his career averages. Interestingly, his record against the Oilers in that timeframe is actually a bit worse than his career metrics – so is he truly an Oiler killer? Perhaps the wins and losses don’t suggest so; however, his save percentage and minimal goals against in those games show that he stands on his head when he plays the Oilers. The Islanders are typically a lower-scoring team, so these numbers tell me that he just needed a bit of run support to really rack up the wins. The Oilers play the Islanders twice this season and, assuming the Isles are wise to these career numbers, we likely will see Sorokin in both games. To ‘extract the stuff of victory’ in those games, the Oilers will need to employ tactics used when you run into a hot goalie – they’ll need traffic in front and to create second and third opportunities. Being willing to score ugly and grind down the Islanders defence to put Sorokin on more of a proverbial island will put the Oilers in a good position to win.

 I’m not sure the Oilers could find a time in their existence where they looked forward to playing the Minnesota Wild. Things haven’t gotten much better since the 17-game road losing streak to the Wild that I previously mentioned. The current iteration of the Wild has strong goaltending, mobility on the back end, and elite scorers. This sounds like a pretty lethal combination, and the results have confirmed it, with the Oilers posting a 26.7 per cent points percentage in recent games vs. the Wild. The Oilers see the Wild three times this season, and coming away with points in those games will be difficult. Wins will come from the Oilers’ depth outplaying the Wild’s depth, and the top lines holding their own. Minnesota has been criticized for a lack of depth at centre this year, meaning the Oilers should have an opportunity against the Wild’s bottom-six. Somewhat similar is the drop-off in defence pairings after Quinn Hughes and Brock Faber, as those pairings feature older players who may struggle to keep up with speed. The problem is, Hughes and Faber regularly play half the game. The Wild also have been mediocre on the penalty kill, ranking in the middle of the pack during last year’s regular season and, similar to the Oilers, falling off a cliff in the playoffs. This is good news for an Edmonton PP unit that regularly is near the top of the league. The Oilers will need strong performances from everyone in their lineup to buck this trend of struggling against the Wild and come up with some key points against a strong Western Conference foe this season.

Whether it’s Kucherov making plays with ease, MacKinnon attacking with speed, McMann finishing his chances, Sorokin shutting the door, or the Wild continuing their seemingly eternal dominance, the Oilers have some trends to flip this season. If the Oilers want to make good on their Stanley Cup aspirations, finding answers for opponents like these will be part of the road to getting there.

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