The Oilers began their weekly cycle of getting back to basics and playing a committed defensive game, blocking 24 shots against the Utah Mammoth, stifling the opposition in a 5-2 win. The two points meant the Oilers leapfrogged over the Golden Knights again, who can’t score lately, winning once in their last five games.

Two slumbering giants in terms of pre-season expectations show flashes of a strong game, like Vegas beating Dallas last week, but can’t seem to click for any length of time.

Whereas the Oilers usually win two, lose two, and are immune to pronounced runs, the Golden Knights streak harder. In January, Vegas won seven straight, then lost seven of the next eight games. They’ve won four in a row on two other occasions, but also have a four- and five-game losing skid to their name.

That’s put each team a point apart with 10 games to go, despite Edmonton winning three more games.

Collision course in the first round of the Pacific Division playoffs? The likelihood grows stronger.

“A lot on the line here, not only for making playoffs, but seeding,” said coach Kris Knoblauch on Wednesday. “Maybe it’s a home advantage situation in playoff time. Every time we play them, we usually get a good game.”

‘We can play like that more…’

The Oilers have a low-event, defensive game in them. There have been flashes, especially last time against Vegas on March 8.

Tristan Jarry might have graduated from “unplayable” status, but he didn’t have to do much in the victory. He faced 16 shots, and each goal against had a bizarre element to it. If anything, he didn’t crater mentally after the double deflection put the Oilers in a 1-0 deficit, especially with how strongly the team started.

With the breaks and yanks, that was Jarry’s first start in a win since Jan. 26. That bodes well for the Oilers, who may not feel as compelled to start Connor Ingram every game.

The legend of Matt Savoie grows after a terrific shorthanded goal, thanks to a poised Evan Bouchard assist. On a night where Connor McDavid scored his 400th goal and 1200th point, as many fans were thrilled by Savoie’s game, after he returned to McDavid’s wing.

“He’s playing well. He’s doing a lot of really good things,” said McDavid about Savoie. “Was a huge goal on the kill there, he plays with a lot of energy. He’s got a great motor on him and he keeps pucks alive. That’s all you can ask for.”

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Jack Roslovic narrowly missed a hat trick, and is now at 19 goals on the season after his deuce. At five-on-five, he now leads the team with 0.99 goals per hour, according to Natural Stat Trick, just ahead of Vasily Podkolzin. I think he could be useful on the power play, but the Oilers didn’t get a man advantage against the Mammoth.

His new line pairing with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman was productive together.

“I think it’s an ability to have o-zone possession, forecheck the right way, and then obviously be responsible in the d-zone,” said Roslovic on what made that line work. “It’s a good line of speed, and the ability to score and prevent as well.”

Blueliner Jake Walman has been more noticeable for the right reasons in the last two games, coinciding with the return of Ty Emberson. He showed what he can do when he’s moving his feet, lugging the puck up ice to create the chance that led to the 1-1 goal.

While he needs to remove the play where he walks in front of the Oilers net and nearly hands the opponent an easy goal, like what happened in Tampa Bay, Walman and Emberson seem to be gaining chemistry together.

“We’ve been building towards it. More of a commitment to team defence and getting the puck out of our own zone, stopping the puck, not letting them cycle and get momentum,” said Walman on Wednesday. “I think we can play like that more, and that’s what makes us successful.”

‘Stop the bleeding’

Bearing down and scoring goals eludes the Golden Knights right now, although goaltending blunders are stealing headlines. Adin Hill accomplished the dubious feat of a zero save percentage, where he allowed three goals on three shots against the Mammoth last Thursday.

Since the last Oilers-Golden Knights matchup, the VGK are 3-5, beating only Dallas in their last five games. Last week they scored just once in three games, and have only five goals in their last five games.

In a 4-1 loss on Tuesday night to Winnipeg, coach Bruce Cassidy wasn’t about to throw his goaltending under the bus.

“Tonight wasn’t a night about (our) goaltender, it was about our lack of execution offensively,” Cassidy said. “Listen, if we’re not scoring, he’s going to have to help us put out fires for us…I’m not putting it on him, but that’s the hand he’s been dealt lately. He hasn’t got a lot of run support.”

Hill, along with Akira Schmid, Carter Hart, and Carl Lindblom, haven’t provided stellar goaltending throughout the season. In fact, Vegas and Edmonton have the two lowest five-on-five save percentages on shots on goals. They are both bottom-seven across the NHL in their last 10 games.

Mixed in with an inability to score, it’s forcing more losses than wins.

“We don’t stop the bleeding soon enough,” said Rasmus Andersson. “And it feels like almost every time we let the first one in, it’s a 3-0 game and we got to chase the rest of the game.

Expected goal differential

Matt Larkin of Daily Faceoff is writing his Stanley Cup ingredients series, the colonel’s herbs and spices that true contenders are made of.

His most recent edition on Tuesday talked about expected goal differential, which has a very strong correlation to an eventual Stanley Cup champion. It’s a trait that both the Oilers and Golden Knights are top-8 in across the league. In fact, four Pacific Division teams are in the top-10.

Both Edmonton and Vegas are climbing in five-on-five expected goals percentage lately, but their problems mirror each other.

Vegas is fifth with a 53.51 per cent expected goals percentage
Vegas is fifth with an 19.74 expected goal differential
Vegas is 19th with an 48.51 per cent actual goal share
Edmonton is seventh with at 51.8 per cent expected goals
Edmonton is seventh with an 11.23 expected goal differential
Edmonton is 22nd with an 47.69 per cent actual goal share

The chasm is even wider in the last 10 games. Vegas is scoring just 1.56 goals per/60 at five-on-five, despite having the third-highest expected goals percentage in that stretch.

Notes:

Vegas begins a four-game homestand tonight, and will face Washington, Vancouver, and Calgary afterward. Six of their last 10 games are at home. Seven of them are against the Pacific, with two of those against the last-place Canucks.
Jack Eichel is pointless in six games, Mark Stone in five.
Carter Hart has resumed skating and is nearing a return to the crease.
William Karlsson hasn’t played since November and would need the Golden Knights to make a run in the playoffs to return this year.
Evan Bouchard became just the 15th NHL defenceman all-time to ever record multiple 80-point seasons in a three-assist game vs. Utah. Who had the most? That would be Ray Bourque, who achieved that feat 10 times.
Bouchard has a career-high 19 goals and needs one more point to set a career high in points (82). With his next goal, he’d join Paul Coffey, Sheldon Souray, and Charlie Huddy as the only Oilers blueliners to score 20-plus goals in a season.
Edmonton’s penalty kill scored for the sixth time, which is tied for 10th best in the league. However, they have allowed a goal on the kill in three straight games.
The power play has not scored in three games either, but didn’t have an attempt vs. Utah.
The Oilers are 2-0 against the Golden Knights this season. They’ll play one more time on April 4.

Michael Menzies is an Oilersnation columnist and has been the play-by-play voice of the Bonnyville Pontiacs in the AJHL since 2019. With seven years news experience as the Editor-at-Large of Lakeland Connect in Bonnyville, he also collects vinyl, books, and stomach issues. Follow him on X at Menzies_4.

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