If you don’t look at the NHL standings too often, walking into this Edmonton Oilers and Predators matchup, you’d think – finally, a soft spot in the schedule. In October, that would’ve been true.

Ugly losses. Ugly stats. Ugly quotes.

But despite alarming trends and calls for a fire sale, the Preds have played much better since the end of November, crawling out of the league’s doldrums into Wild Card consideration.

In fact, they are 11-5 in December and January, sprouting to a 19-18-4 record precisely halfway through their season.

Part of the reason is that Steven Stamkos is scoring goals again.

Stammer is back

Stamkos was performing so poorly that there was real doubt the Preds could even trade him, especially in year two of a four-year contract worth $8-million annually.

It can’t be overstated just how bad his offensive production was to start. Now, he’s seemingly back to the old Stammer. He had just five points in his first 22 games. Since then, he’s scored 14 goals and produced 23 points in the last 19 games.

On New Year’s Eve, Stamkos tickled the twine for the 600th time, becoming just the 22nd player in NHL history to achieve the massive milestone.

It’s timely goals too. He scored six game-winning goals in December, tying an NHL record for the most GWG in a calendar month.

Last season was a precipitous dropoff from his old Tampa Bay self, regressing from 81 points to 53 points. But if Stamkos has found his Midas touch again, it’s great for the franchise. Either they will be in the mix for a playoff spot in a soft Western Conference, or general manager Barry Trotz can trade his contract.

Improvements

Captain Filip Forsberg highlighted one area of their game in December that’s greatly improved – breakouts.

“Early in the season, we got stuck in our own zone,” said Forsberg. “The breakouts have been better, and we’re spending less time in our own zone because of that. That’s definitely helping our game.”

While the Nashville defensive core isn’t what it was in the 2010s, the transition game improving has allowed the offence to score four or more goals in seven of their last 16 games. Not elite numbers by any means, but certainly better when you are staring down the barrel of last overall.

Plus, the younger players are chipping in.

Luke Evangelista was the final restricted free agent to sign a contract, putting ink to paper on October 4 just before the season’s start. Usually, a contract dispute like that, combined with missing training camp, is a harbinger for major struggles.

Instead, Evangelista has taken a massive step in his third full-time season. He’s nearly reached last season’s point total, scoring six goals and 30 points, nine back of his career high 39 in 2023-24.

Only Ryan O’Reilly and Filip Forsberg have outscored him this season, so that $3 million is looking like money well spent, especially with his strong possession metrics.

Saros on the rebound?

Juuse Saros has improved as well from his poor start, but the basic numbers still rate him at a 2.93 goals against average and .896 save percentage. That’s nearly identical from last year’s, and certainly not the results they hoped for when extending him and trading Yaroslav Askarov.

Curiously, Trotz extended backup Justus Annunen to a two-year contract at $1.25-million annually.

The timing seems strange, given Annunen’s numbers are worse than Saros’, but he has won his last two starts, and posted a plus-.900 save percentage in his last three.

‘Proud of this group’

This is the last of a three-game road trip for the Predators, coming off a 4-3 win over the Calgary Flames on Saturday who’d won five of their last six games.

Michael Bunting had one goal and three assists, while Nic Hague scored with 29 seconds left in regulation to claim the two points.

“It’s never going to be easy for us,” said Hague post-game. “It hasn’t been all year. I think tonight is another example of that. I’m really proud of the group, the way that we just stick together and keep pushing for that next goal.”

We know Leon Draisaitl has performed extremely well vs the Predators in his career, particularly away at Nashville. He’s posted an absurd 27 goals and 48 points in 29 matchups.

However, in twelve of his last 13 games, Draisaitl has failed to register a goal. Since the Christmas break, he’s -6. It’s a good time for Drai to see the Preds.

Notes:

Edmonton and Nashville are neck and neck in the bottom-five of goal share at 5-on-5 this season. But in expected goal share, both teams rate much higher, with NSH at 13th and EDM at 17th.
The Nashville power play has returned to league median with Stamkos’ production, but the penalty kill is a legitimate bright spot, sitting 8th in the NHL before Monday’s games were played.
Jonathan Marchessault hasn’t played since leaving the December 17th game vs Carolina with a lower-body injury. He’s registered seven goals and 10 points in 28 games.
Roman Josi is still this team’s number one defenceman, but he’s missed a chunk of the season, which has happened three of the last four years. He’s also playing his lowest average TOI since his rookie season at 23:02 per night.
Journeyman Erik Haula celebrated his 800th game in style vs the Flames, scoring two goals. On the year, seven goals and 23 points.
On Stamkos’ scoring: His last GWG was the 98th of his career, tying Bobby Hull and Guy Lafleur for 11th place on the NHL’s all-time list.
Former Oilers first-round draft choice Reid Schaefer scored his fourth goal of the season on December 31st against the Vegas Golden Knights. Of course, the 22-year-old Edmonton native was part of the package to acquire Mattias Ekholm.
Meanwhile, on the Oilers side, Spencer Stastney will play his first game against his former team. Stastney played 81 career regular-season games and three more in the postseason with the Predators franchise.
This is one of the most lopsided head-to-heads the Oilers have in the NHL. Edmonton is 8-1-1 in their last 10 games vs Nashville, outscoring them 44-22. The Oilers are 3-1 in that stretch at home.

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