Heading into the season, I didn’t think the Edmonton Oilers were going to win the Stanley Cup. I was scared to give that opinion when I first joined Oilersnation in October.

Florida Panthers be damned, three consecutive final appearances is uncommon, never mind winning your first Stanley Cup in three tries, which has rarely ever happened in the NHL. Hockey is a random game. Great teams lose all the time.

That, combined with the question marks coming into the lineup, I had my doubts, and I still remain happy to have my thoughts proved wrong.

But overall, it reeked of being a “hot take” and doesn’t ingratiate yourself to a company based on Oilers fandom. So why share it?

“Hi! I’m Michael Menzies. Nice to meet you. Oh yeah, that thing we all want to happen. Nope, ain’t going to happen…”

Yet even with this opinion, and the lacklustre performances of the past week, I feel much less negative than a segment of the fanbase. Open up the Elon machine after the Flyers game on Saturday, and get your fill. Is the hashtag #FireKnob trending yet?

Nothing that’s happened so far this season has steered my opinion — most of their summer wagers haven’t panned out, and had massive question marks attached to them.

What about Trent Frederic’s post-season performance would get me excited about an eight-year contract? What about Andrew Mangiapane’s point production declining for three consecutive seasons made me think this year would be different? What about Stuart Skinner made me think his technical abilities improve over a couple of months? And so, and so forth…

That’s not a surprise.

The Flyers game on Saturday is a good example. Tell a hockey fan the Flyers would have one more win than the Oilers in the new year, and you’d be laughed out of your basement.

While the Flyers have some skill, they don’t have the top-end talent of the Oilers to be sure. But they are a clear example of having your wagers pan out and a team committed to their structure, which is the opposite of the Oilers.

Believe what they’re telling us

I lead with this not to look like the smartest guy in the room — I’m the only one in my room, after all.

My point is, even with this belief, I’m not drawing final conclusions of what this team can do. The games have to be played. Slumps can be overcome. Decrees in January that it’s impossible that something in April, May, or June will happen is silly in my opinion.

But there is a blaring alarm sounding through Oil Country that points to a simple fear — the Oilers are telling us exactly what they are.

The Edmonton Oilers roster is a bunch of seemingly disconnected pieces duct-taped into a lineup that’s lone path to victory is McDavid, Draisaitl, and Bouchard dominating offensively, and losing nine times out of ten when they don’t.

It’s not just that the bottom-six isn’t scoring goals, they are often getting dominated five-on-five. It’s not just an ugly slump, a bad stretch, a pile of gosh darn bad luck. The bottom-six isn’t generating chances. They aren’t doing things that generate chances. They are losing shifts routinely.

Why the disconnect?

The player performances can’t all be laid at the feet of Kris Knoblauch. Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark, Andrew Mangiapane, and Trent Frederic, have to take some responsibility for their play here.

The front office — including Jeff Jackson, because the Summer of Jeff was much more detrimental to the Oilers’ long-term Stanley Cup future window than anything Stan Bowman has done — deserves blame too.

But why the disconnect from Stan Bowman and Kris Knoblauch about the type of player they acquire and how they are deployed?

It’s not just that Frederic, Mangiapane, plus Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson from the previous off-season have underwhelmed. You can argue in each case, the worst-case scenario is playing out.

In some ways, they don’t fit, like a top-six player in Jeff Skinner being signed to play a bottom-six role (although he got a raw deal and still scored 16 goals). In other ways, they’ve changed how they play the game (Mangiapane doesn’t shoot the puck and isn’t hard to play against unless he takes a penalty).

The worst-case scenarios are where I assign the blame to management and coaching.

There have been ugly blowouts this season where the players look like they met for the first time in the parking lot 20 minutes before warm-up. Then, other ones where you wonder, what is the plan with these players?

Like harsh bathroom light, when McDrai aren’t at their best, all their beauty flaws are exposed. And you don’t have to squint to see them.

I’d like to know where they envisioned Trent Frederic playing. I’d like to know where they thought Jeff Skinner could be used if not in the top-six. Better yet, how can you improve a team that’s not good enough, if you have to annually undo the mistakes of the past?

But it’s not all bad

So not a great week for the Edmonton Oilers, who squeezed out a victory in Winnipeg despite being outplayed, outchanced the Bruins but got outdueled in goaltending, and then had each defensive pair fail to move pucks out of the zone effectively to dig a hole against the Flyers.

Good riddance.

For as quickly as the feeling can sour on a team — remember how the Oilers blitzkrieg’d the Flames before Christmas — by next Sunday, we could be looking at a more engaged group. The results can flip quickly. They may even win two out of three.

This isn’t to dump cold water on any questioning of the team, because the big picture issues and small window situations have been colliding head-on all season, but just keep in mind this.

It’s worth repeating that all their important games lie ahead of them. It’s worth repeating that the Oilers still sit first in the Pacific Division. More than eighty per cent of the league has major flaws, too.

Oilers record this week: 1-2.
Oilers record in matinees: 1-4.
Oilers record vs Eastern Conference: 11-9-3.

This week:

Home vs Nashville on Tuesday
Road vs Winnipeg on Thursday
Home vs Los Angeles on Saturday

And hey, Kasperi Kapanen could be back this week.

Ce qui s’est passé?

One thing about Team Canada because I’ve laid out my critiques elsewhere.

There are no Quebecois players on this team, and it speaks to the lack of elite talent that the province has been producing for a decade plus.

Remember, this is the province of Richard, Beliveau, Lemieux, Roy, Brodeur, Lafleur, and on and on.

There wasn’t a player even close to being in consideration, so much so, Pierre Luc-Dubois or Thomas Chabot wouldn’t be on a second Canada team… you’d be stretching to make a third Canada team.

The QMJHL has done a good job steering attention from the state of their overall product by having their Memorial Cup representatives perform, making the WHL’s 12-year drought all the more mind-boggling.

But the “Q” is not what it once was.

Often viewed as a goalie factory, it’s just not happening anymore. What’s going on in Quebec?

Ekholm snub

I understand why Oilers fans aren’t too cut up by Mattias Ekholm being passed over for Team Sweden, but for me, that stings more than Hyman or Bouchard’s exclusion.

We all have our man crushes on players, and Ekholm would be mine. He’s so bloody good, and the trade to acquire him is one of the greatest in franchise history.

“It’s disappointing,” said Ekholm after the news on Friday. “It was probably my last shot. It’s something that’s right up there with the Stanley Cup, the Olympics, so it’s obviously a huge disappointment.”

He’s gutted and that sucks.

However, as we all know, it won’t hurt to have most of the Oilers getting R&R during the Winter Games.

Bizarre Winter Classic

Flipping through channels on Friday, to my chagrin, I saw a bit of Role Model’s performance at the Winter Classic, and the nauseating scene of Matthew Tkachuk and Aleksander Barkov in white suits dancing with the Stanley Cup…

What a bizarre thing, never mind an all-time ugly jersey matchup.

The Winter Classic and all outdoor games don’t hold as a TV event anymore. But the Heritage Classic in Edmonton a couple of years ago was fun. It’s for the people there primarily.

I wonder what the appetite is to put more games in non-NHL cities. The rumours about playing at Bristol Motor Speedway is so Looney Tunes it just might work…

Michael Menzies worked as the Editor-at-Large of Lakeland Connect in Bonnyville for seven years, and has worked in the Alberta Junior Hockey League as the Bonnyville Pontiacs play-by-by voice since 2019. He collects vinyl, books, and stomach issues.