Hockey is officially back.

The NHL regular season has officially kicked off, and expectations are sky-high around the league. Out East, teams like Ottawa, Buffalo, and New Jersey are desperately trying to get back into the playoff picture. At the same time, in the Western Conference, you have teams like Vancouver and Winnipeg who are trying to prove that their strong 2023-24 seasons were not flukes.

The Oilers’ season will ultimately be defined by whether or not they win the Stanley Cup. What they do in the regular season really won’t matter all that much in terms of how the team is perceived, but that doesn’t mean that the next 82 games aren’t important.

The team should work hard to finish as high as possible in the standings simply so that they can have home-ice advantage for as long as possible during the playoffs. We saw during the Stanley Cup Final just how important that can be.

What are the most significant factors that will define this Oilers season?

Well, there are things that we can bank on year after year. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will be uber-productive, and the powerplay will win them a large share of games.  That always happens.

But some other areas will define just how good the Oilers are in 2024-25. These are the three I’ll be watching the closest.

This is the most obvious one. We all know the risk the Oilers are taking by heading into this season with their current blue line. I’m personally of the belief that the blue line isn’t all that much worse than it was a year ago, but that’s because I’m higher on both Ty Emberson and Troy Stecher than most.

Still, how those two specifically perform will have a massive impact on how the Oilers’ season goes. If Emberson can step in a play like a legitimate top-four defenseman like he did during his 30 games with the San Jose Sharks, then I think the blue line is in decent shape.

If you can get that and Darnell Nurse finds his game, then the Oilers will actually have a really solid top-four. Nurse started last season really well, but then his play fell off the face of the earth in the second half of the year. If they can get a strong bounce-back from Nurse and he can go back to driving a second pairing and not just struggling to stay afloat, then that will also go a long way in this blue line surviving until the deadline, when help is likely on the way.

I also do think there’s a chance that Nurse ends up on a pairing with Troy Stecher and they have had a small bit of success together in the past. That could spread things out nicely and actually give the Oilers three fairly reliable pairings. A Nurse bounceback is a prerequisite to that happening though.

There is pressure on Nurse this year but really, there’s pressure on all six defensemen.

If the blue line is better than expected, then Stuart Skinner’s life will be much easier and his numbers will look better. At the same time, if Skinner can find a way to bring his game to another level, then I think our perception of the blue line will change a little bit as well.

My prediction: by the end of this season, Skinner will be considered a top-ten goalie in the league and has a little bit of Vezina buzz behind his name.

Sometimes I think we forget just how young he is. He is still only 25 years old and he’s only heading into his third full season of being an NHL goalie. To think he’s already hit his peak as a goaltender would be foolish.

He didn’t have the luxury of being walked into life as an NHL starting goalie. He was thrown right into the deep end and when people talk about him struggling to stay consistent over the course of an entire season, I think that is an important context to include. He didn’t get to play behind a legit starter for a few seasons like a lot of young goalies do.

If Skinner takes a step forward this year, then the Oilers will be right near the top of the NHL standings.

Another important thing here is obviously health. With journeyman Calvin Pickard back, the Oilers really can’t afford to lose Skinner at all. They desperately need him to be healthy and playing in 50+ games this season.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about the best-case scenarios for the Oilers’ new additions and how both Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, despite being veteran players, come with a tremendous amount of upside.

There is also some risk attached to these players as well.

Skinner is a supremely talented goal scorer, but the knock on him has always been consistency and lacklustre play in the defensive zone. I’m hoping that coming to a Stanley Cup contender brings out the best in him, but what if it doesn’t?

Head Coach Kris Knoblauch already demoted him to the third line at practice on Monday and the risk with Skinner is that if he isn’t scoring goals, he really isn’t bringing much else to the table.

Arvidsson is different. Even if he isn’t scoring, I think he can be an effective energy player who makes his linemates better with his tenacious forecheck. He could be a useful third-line piece if he doesn’t gel with Leon Draisaitl. However, he has really struggled to stay healthy over the last few seasons and if he isn’t in the lineup, he isn’t bringing any value (duh).

Both of these players have 35-goal potential, but there is risk. If they work out, the Oilers have the best top-six in the league. If they don’t, then GM Stan Bowman will be shopping for scoring help at the deadline.

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