NHL Betting Preview (April 5th): Avalanche vs. Oilers Odds

Photo credit:© Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

1 month ago

The Oilers don’t have much time to lick their wounds after Wednesday’s 5-0 loss to the Dallas Stars as they have a date with the Colorado Avalanche at Rogers Place on Friday, and another game on Saturday. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make this Western Conference matchup so interesting.

Avalanche vs. Oilers Odds

Colorado Avalanche Moneyline Odds: +100
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -130
Puck Line Odds: Avalanche +1.5 (-210), Oilers -1.5 (+165)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -135, under +110)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

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Last Matchup

Edmonton and Colorado last met on March 16th at Rogers Place. Colorado won the game 3-2 in overtime, but the score was the only part of the game that was close. The Avalanche dominated the Oilers at even strength, owning 60 percent of the shot attempts and 62.5 percent of the expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey. Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Connor McDavid were all held off the scoresheet in the loss, while Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar linked up for the winning goal in overtime.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Friday’s matchup.

Handicapping the Avalanche (48-28 SU, 37-39 ATS, 42-31 O/U)

Justus Annunen, having stopped 42 of the 44 shots he faced in Colorado’s 5-2 win over the Wild in Minnesota on Thursday, means Alexander Georgiev (37-15-4) will be between the pipes on Friday. Georgiev, with a .901 save percentage, has saved the team approximately 4.8 goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey. The 28-year-old, since joining the Avalanche, has gone 3-0-1 with a goals-against average of 2.61 and a save percentage of .924 against the Oilers.

Colorado has struggled on the road this season, going 19-20 straight up, but since adding Casey Mittelstadt and Sean Walker at the trade deadline, the Avalanche have won five out of six games away from home. Per Evolving Hockey, Colorado ranks first in even-strength expected goals percentage since March 9th, and only one team has scored more goals per 60 minutes.

Edmonton closed as a -126 favourite when they hosted the Avalanche back on March 16th, but the perception of these two teams has clearly changed since then because the Oilers are only listed at -130 despite the fact that Colorado is playing the second game in a back-to-back and Val Nichushkin is listed as questionable. Edmonton’s moneyline odds would be longer if not for these added advantages.

Handicapping the Oilers (48-29 SU, 34-40 ATS, 32-39 O/U)

Edmonton went into the All-Star break on a 16-game win streak, but since then, the Oilers have gone 16-13 straight up. If a bettor had bet one hundred dollars on the Oilers to win each of their 29 games since the break, they’d be down approximately $448. From a betting perspective, only six teams have been worse and they are all non-playoff teams.

Edmonton does have a rest advantage, though, and that has an impact on how often the home team wins. For example, home teams have won 53.6 percent of the games overall this season, but in situations like this one, where the home team has more rest than the away team, home win percentage jumps to 58.8 percent. The Oilers have gone 9-1 straight up in home games where they have more rest than the road team, but they are 4-5 straight up in home games where their moneyline odds are longer than -150.

As we near the playoffs, it’s becoming quite evident that teams like Dallas and Colorado are more complete than the Oilers. The home team does have several advantages here, including the fact that their starting goaltender, Stuart Skinner, hasn’t played since April 1st. However, given how inconsistent Edmonton has been as of late, there isn’t a good reason to bet on them to win this game at the current odds.

PRESENTED BY BETWAY

Team Betting Trends

Colorado is 8-2 straight up against the Oilers in their last 10 meetings. The Avalanche are also 7-3 against the puck line versus the Oilers.
Colorado is 6-4 straight up in its last 10 road games, while the Oilers are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games.
Edmonton and Colorado are 6-4 to the under in the last 10 meetings.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Nathan MacKinnon (130 points) and Connor McDavid (126 points) are chasing each other, and Nikita Kucherov, for the scoring lead. MacKinnon has scored seven goals and 10 assists in his last 10 games, while McDavid has scored four goals and 16 assists in his last 10 games. MacKinnon is listed at -134 to score a goal and -118 to score two or more points. McDavid’s goal prop is priced at +125, and he is listed at -118 to score two or more points.
MacKinnon is averaging 5.4 shots per game over his last 10 games. His shots on goal prop is listed at 4.5, over -143. He has gone over that mark in eight of his last 10 games, and he registered six shots on goal on March 16th versus the Oilers. McDavid shots on goal prop is set at 3.5, over +105. He has only gone over that mark four times in his last 10 games.
Mikko Rantanen has eight goals and eight assists in his last 10 games. He is listed at even money to score on Friday.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

The last time these two teams met, the recommended bet was a draw. That worked out even though Colorado badly outplayed Edmonton. The playing field should be fairly level once again thanks to the schedule, and given that six out of the last seven meetings between these two teams have been decided by one goal dating back to the start of the 2022-23 regular season, betting on a draw at +310 is a worthwhile bet. Just be careful not to get conceded on Betway’s website, because they also offer a market labelled “Will the game go to overtime?” and the odds are only +280 for some reason.

Bet on regulation ending in 60-minute draw at +310 odds.