It’s been a pretty active summer for the Edmonton Oilers, but their off-season is not finished yet.
Per PuckPedia, the Oilers remain $354K above the cap limit of $88M, with 21 players on the NHL roster. This does not include RFAs Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, who still require contracts. Some way or the other, Edmonton will need to clear cap space and sign their RFAs for the upcoming 2024-25 season.
As a result, Cody Ceci and Brett Kulak have been listed as potential trade candidates for quite some time.
Ceci is a 30-year-old right defenceman with a $3.25M cap hit and one year remaining on his contract, while Kulak is a 30-year-old left-defenceman with a $2.75M cap hit for two more years.
If the Oilers continue to deploy the top-four pairings that they ran in the 2024 Cup finals, their top-four would consist of Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, and Philip Broberg. This would result in a third pairing of Kulak and Ceci making six million dollars, which is arguably unideal in such a tight cap world. At the very least, it could make one of them obvious trade candidates for the team to clear cap space, whether it’s right now or at the trade deadline to acquire a roster upgrade.
So, will the Oilers be forced to move Ceci or Kulak before opening night? And if so, which one could and should be moved? Here’s a closer look.
*All cap info via PuckPedia, all statistics via Natural Stat Trick unless stated otherwise
A brief summary of Ceci’s career in Edmonton thus far
May 8, 2024; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Edmonton Oilers defenseman Cody Ceci (5) skates in warm up prior to game one of the second round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
Cody Ceci’s career as an Edmonton Oiler has been fascinating.
Signed in free agency on July 28, 2021, Ceci’s first season with the Oilers came in 2021-22. He began the year on the second pair with Duncan Keith, producing mixed results.
However, following the firing of Dave Tippett and the hiring of Jay Woodcroft in February of 2022, Ceci was paired with Darnell Nurse on the top pair in an exceedingly difficult role. In the second half of 2021-22, Nurse and Ceci nearly averaged 50 percent of their TOI against elite competition; for reference, most top-pairing defencemen average around ~40 percent of their TOI against elites.
And yet, the Oilers out-scored opponents 25 to 22 with the duo on-ice at 5v5, while holding a fantastic 62 percent high-danger chance differential. At first, they initially thrived.
Unfortunately, this success did not last in subsequent seasons.
From 2022-23 through 2023-24, Edmonton has most commonly deployed Ceci next to Nurse in the top four. They were deployed as Edmonton’s de facto top-pairing until the acquisition of Mattias Ekholm in February of 2023; ever since the trade, Ekholm and Bouchard have primarily been Edmonton’s top-pair.
In 2073 5v5 minutes in the regular season, Nurse and Ceci have a 50 percent goal share and 51 percent expected goal share, which improves to 57 percent in both facets without the pair on-ice; not awful, but you’d like to see more from a pairing making over twelve million dollars. Meanwhile, their post-season results are horrendous; in the past two playoffs, Nurse and Ceci have been out-scored 11 to 20 at 5v5 while holding a ghastly 40 percent expected goal share.
The 2024 playoffs in particular was an awful showing for Ceci, with Nurse on the second-pair and away from Nurse on the third-pair. Ceci ranked dead last among Edmonton’s players with a 37 percent expected goal differential, as Edmonton was out-chanced 119 to 193 with him on-ice.
At this point, it is evident that Ceci is simply not a top-four defenceman. Moving forward, Ceci could tread water on a third pair, but there are younger, better, and cheaper 3RD options out there than Ceci at $3.25M.
A brief summary of Kulak’s career in Edmonton thus far
May 31, 2024; Dallas, Texas, USA; Edmonton Oilers defenseman Brett Kulak (27) in action against the Dallas Stars during the third period between the Dallas Stars and the Edmonton Oilers in game five of the Western Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
Kulak has given the Oilers effective, steady minutes ever since his arrival in Edmonton.
The Canadiens dealt Kulak to Edmonton on the 2022 Trade Deadline for William Lagesson, a conditional second-round pick in 2022, and a seventh-round pick in 2024.
Kulak began his Oilers tenure on the third pair next to Tyson Barrie. The pair produced exceptional results; in the regular season and playoffs combined, they possessed a 54 percent expected goal differential while out-scoring opponents 20 to 10, a perfect 2:1 ratio.
Following Duncan Keith’s retirement, Kulak and Barrie were the second pair for the first half of 2022-23, producing good, but not great results. When Barrie was dealt in a package for Mattias Ekholm, Kulak was bumped back down to the third pair, and once again produced excellent results next to Vincent Desharnais.
It continued in the 2023-24 regular season, where Kulak and Desharnais operated at a 56 percent expected goal differential, ranking 15th among all NHL defensive pairs with a minimum of 300 minutes at 5v5. Kulak has also been one of Edmonton’s most consistent players in the past three playoffs.
Of course, Kulak has largely played against weaker competition in Edmonton, but he’s also played less with Edmonton’s top players compared to the team’s other defenders. All-in-all, it’s difficult to ask a lot more out of Kulak at his current price point; he has been a very reliable player for the Oilers.
Factors that will affect Ceci and Kulak’s future in Edmonton
Aside from individual performance, there are a couple of other external factors that will also heavily influence Kulak and Ceci’s future with the Oilers. One of them is the status of Evander Kane.
Kane dealt with sports hernia issues throughout the 2023-24 season and missed the last five games of the 2024 Stanley Cup Finals, while Jeff Jackson also mentioned that Kane has dealt with hip issues. Per Jason Gregor, surgery could be an option for Kane.
As a 33-year-old forward making $5.125-million, Kane could have been a realistic trade candidate if not for his no-move-clause. However, with his injury issues, Kane is a potential candidate for LTIR – Long Term Injured Reserve.
If Kane is placed on LTIR, the Oilers will immediately become cap compliant, and depending on how long Kane remains on LTIR, they could even have room to add an additional impact player while keeping both Kulak and Ceci. However, with Kane’s exact injury status being quite vague at the moment, it is unclear how likely of a possibility this is.
If Kane is not placed on LTIR, Kulak and Ceci’s future could then depend on Holloway and Broberg’s contracts.
The Oilers could begin the season with a 21-man roster with Kane. If the Oilers hypothetically waived Derek Ryan, Corey Perry and Josh Brown, while keeping Raphael Lavoie and Troy Stecher on the roster, they would have roughly ~$1.92M to sign Broberg and Holloway. If the two RFAs both agreed to one-year deals around ~$960K, the Oilers could be cap compliant without making a single trade or LTIR move. This is likely the ideal option in the eyes of Edmonton’s management.
But, a few weeks back, Bob Stauffer reported that Holloway and Broberg’s contracts could be in the low $1-million range. This would force the Oilers to make some sort of additional move, and it’s difficult to see any scenario where one of Kulak/Ceci is not moved.
Right now, Kulak is the (considerably) better and cheaper player than Ceci. Frank Seravalli has reported there will be a market for Ceci if the Oilers look to trade him, while it is also worth noting that Edmonton signed three right-defenceman on free agency day; Troy Stecher, Josh Brown, and Connor Carrick. With all of this in mind, it makes significantly more sense to trade Ceci before Kulak.
Personally, I am a big fan of Brett Kulak. He has been a very useful player for Edmonton, and I believe the team should strongly attempt to keep him. But at the same time, it is evident that Edmonton’s management has valued Ceci for quite some time, so realistically, there is a decent chance that Kulak could be dealt before Ceci.
Even if Kulak and Ceci are on the opening night roster, there is still a realistic possibility that one or both are dealt at the trade deadline to acquire a roster upgrade. Another significant factor influencing this is the performance of Philip Broberg on the right side.
Perhaps Edmonton’s greatest area of weakness heading into 2024-25 is the right side of their defence, which is quite bleak past Evan Bouchard. This is a big reason why Broberg – a natural left-defenceman – played on his right side in the cup finals, and is likely to obtain an extended opportunity at 2RD this upcoming season.
I wrote all about Broberg’s potential viability on the right side roughly a month ago, but if Broberg does not play well at 2RD, it could significantly lower Kulak’s chances of remaining an Oiler, as Edmonton’s LD depth would then consist of Ekholm, Nurse, Broberg and Kulak. Unless Ekholm or Nurse plays at RD, Edmonton could be forced to make room for a proper 2RD, and would likely move Kulak to clear cap for a move and allow Broberg to play his strong side.
However, if Broberg does succeed at right-defence, it gives Edmonton much less reason to move Kulak at 3LD, which in turn could increase Cody Ceci’s chances of being moved if they need to clear cap for a trade deadline move.
All-in-all, it will be interesting to observe Edmonton’s cap situation in the following weeks. Only time will tell if Kulak and Ceci will be on the Oilers roster heading into the 2025 playoffs.
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