The other week, I looked at how many Oilers had a realistic shot at scoring 20 goals next season. After going through the list, it got me thinking about just how good the 2024-25 Oilers offence could be.
Of course, any team with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on it is going to find a way to produce a lot of offence, but with the summer moves that the Oilers have made, there is good reason to think that next year’s version of the team could be the best that we’ve seen in the McDavid era.
Starting at the top of the roster, both McDavid and Draisaitl should actually be more productive next season than they were in 2023-24.
Last season, McDavid scored just 50% of the goals he did the year before. He barely hit the 30-goal mark after leading the league with 64. His point total also fell by 21 points.
McDavid only missed six games because of injury, but he was not at 100% for some long stretches last season. Assuming he’s back to his usual form, I fully expect him to be back in the 40-goal, 140-point range at a minimum.
As for Draisaitl, his shooting percentage fell by a few points and was actually the lowest it’s been in three seasons. Not by a lot, but it still dipped down as he finished with fewer than 50 goals for the first time since 2020-21. With the talent added around him, I think he could jump back to the 50-goal mark, which he’s done three times in his career.
The two big guns are the main propellers of the offence and even with them not having great seasons by their standards in 2023-24, the Oilers still finished fourth in the league in goals per game at 3.56.
Again, I think it’s fair to expect an uptick in that production, especially if they don’t get off to a slow start next season, but how high can this team soar?
Well, the best offence that the league has seen since the year 2000 was the 2021-22 Florida Panthers. They scored 4.11 goals per game and are actually the only team in that span to average more than four goals per game throughout the course of a full season.
The second-best team in that span is actually the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers, who finished with 3.96. So this core has proven that they can get close to that mark.
That season, the Oilers had 13 different players hit double-digits in goals and McDavid and Draisaitl combined for a whopping 116 of the teams 325 goals. The supporting cast performed well, but the two superstars did the bulk of the scoring. Both Hyman and Nugent-Hopkins did both crack the 35-goal mark as well.
Those four players combined for 58% of the Oilers goals. That’s insane.
Anyways, back to the question at hand, can the Oilers become just the second team this century to crack the 4.00 goal-per-game mark? Can they pass the Panthers’ mark of 4.11?
I think it’s entirely possible.
I just talked about how McDavid and Draisaitl should be more productive than they were last season but there are other reasons to believe that this team will be way more productive than they were last season.
First off, the group they’ll start this season with is much better than the group that began last year with.
Ryan McLeod and Warren Foegele are out and replacing them are Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, and Adam Henrique.
Over the last three seasons, Arvidsson has averaged 26.48 goals per 82 games. If he can stay healthy, he should be right around that mark.
Jeff Skinner struggled down the stretch with the Sabres but he still finished with 24 goals last season and had back-to-back 30-goal seasons before that.
The thing I love about Skinner and Arvidsson is that neither relied heavily on power play time to produce their goals. Skinner for example only scored 21 of his 92 goals on the power play over the last three seasons. Take those away and he should still be a 20-25 goal guy on the Oilers.
While the team did lose 20-goal scorer Warren Foegele, they added two players with higher upside to their top nine. Adam Henrique should easily cover the offence that the Oilers will lose in Ryan McLeod as well.
As for players who could regress, Zach Hyman would be the first name that people will bring up. I’m not sure if he has the ability to hit the 50-goal mark again next season, but he should be able to get back into the 40-goal range, or at least close to it.
His numbers could drop a little bit, but I do think it’s fair to expect Ryan Nugent-Hopkins bounces back after scoring 18 last season. His shooting percentage fell to 9.1% last season and yes, getting back to 37 goals feels like a bit of an unrealistic expectation, if his shooting percentage gets back to his career average of 12%, I think he can get to around 25 goals.
Another thing working against the Oilers is the health of Evander Kane. While he wasn’t very consistent last year, he still popped home 24 goals. If he doesn’t play for the bulk of the regular season, they’ll need to replace that production.
I do think a player like Dylan Holloway can be a productive piece of their top nine, which could help them cover some of that.
To beat the Panthers mark of 4.11 goals per game, the Oilers would have to finish with 338 goals next season. It will be tough, but they’re going to be damn hard to keep off the scoresheet this year and with the new talent they’ve brought it and a few solid bounce backs from some key players, I think they can do it.
If both Draisaitl and McDavid can hit the 50-goal mark again and Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman can combine for 65 between the two of them, then the Oilers are already 48% of the way there and those aren’t even overly aggressive expectations to put on those players.
They’ll need to get some career years from a few players but if one of Arvidsson or Skinner can really pop and players like Henrique and Holloway can be as productive as they were in the playoffs, then I think this Oilers team has a chance to do it.
On paper, the team looks like they can do great things. Can they come together and create a historically good offence? I think it’s very possible.
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