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A closer look into Edmonton’s defensive issues to begin the 2026 Playoffs
Photo credit: © Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
Through the first three games of their first-round matchup against the Anaheim Ducks, the Edmonton Oilers have scored 12 goals, averaging exactly four goals per game.
If you consider the fact that Connor McDavid has been far from his best, producing only two points thus far, this is a rather encouraging fact for the Oilers. Leon Draisaitl and their depth players have managed to play well, and it’s difficult to imagine that McDavid continues his production struggles, so scoring 12 goals without his usual impact is impressive.
However, the Oilers are down 2-1 in this series, because although they have scored 12 goals, they have allowed 16 against, highlighted by a particularly poor 7-4 loss in their most recent outing in Game 3.
What’s gone wrong with Edmonton’s overall team defensive play? Is this due to the defence, goaltending, or is it a combination of both? And, how specifically can they address their concerns? Let’s take a closer look as we head into Game 4.
Let’s begin by taking a look at Edmonton’s exact goal and shot suppression numbers at five-on-five specifically and on the penalty kill specifically and where they rank among current playoff teams:
Firstly, at five-on-five, the Oilers’ skater group has been considerably below-average at preventing scoring chances, ranking 12th out of the 16 playoffs teams in expected goals against per hour.
Looking at Edmonton’s defensive core, their worst defenders have unfortunately been their top-pairing. In the regular-season, the Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm pairing possessed an elite 56 percent expected goal share. However, in the playoffs thus far, they have regressed to 49 percent, and Bouchard specifically is at just 44 percent. As someone that has been an extremely vocal defender of Bouchard for years, the reality is that he has mightily struggled for the start of this first round. It is unfortunate, as the Darnell Nurse pairing has actually been a net positive, but the top pair’s issues have overshadowed that progress.
The forwards also share responsibility here, particularly their top line. So far, Connor McDavid has given up more chances than he has generated according to Natural Stat Trick at five-on-five. I have not been a fan of his play in the defensive zone; far too often has he been caught too high in the zone instead of supporting his defenders down low.
Of course, the coaching has also been far from desirable. I have not been impressed by Kris Knoblauch and the coaching staff, particularly their lack of adjustments to Anaheim’s aggressive forecheck. Simply put, Edmonton’s breakouts have to be a lot better.
With all that being said, it is quite important here to note the discrepancy here between the expected goals (2.7) and actual goals (3.6) against per hour, which means the goaltending has allowed nearly a full goal more than expected per 60. Now, public xG models are far from perfect, especially in such limited sample sizes, but it is difficult to argue that Connor Ingram has performed well at five-on-five.
Specifically, where Ingram has struggled is in controlling rebounds. In fact, per MoneyPuck, Ingram has allowed the most rebounds per shot faced among any goalie in these playoffs. This was certainly on display in Game 3.
The penalty kill, however, is a different story. The Oilers have allowed high-quality chances on the PK at an alarmingly high rate, ranking higher (i.e. worse) than every other playoff team by quite the margin. Considering that public models are primarily built on shot location, one can reasonably infer that adding pre-shot movement would make these results even worse, and so I’d say the goaltending is much less at fault for the PK compared to five-on-five.
With all of that in mind, the big question is: can the Oilers improve?
There are legitimate reasons to believe they can. First, it is difficult to imagine Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard continuing to struggle at this level. Both players played consistently elite hockey in the prior postseasons, and so it’s quite reasonable to say that their lacklustre play thus far seems to be an outlier. Recall that the Oilers also had a rough start to their 2025 playoff run, where they eventually wound up making the cup finals. Thus, I believe there is a strong chance that they can rebound.
Edmonton’s injuries to Jason Dickinson and Adam Henrique have also significantly affected the PK. Upon their return, the PK should be much better. This, in turn, could also wind up improving McDavid’s play as it would significantly reduce his minutes on the penalty kill.
In goal, it may be time to consider a change for Game 4. Connor Ingram looks like he needs a reset. Of course, Tristan Jarry has his own flaws and struggled with Edmonton in the regular season, but I would argue his ceiling is higher than Ingram’s, and if Edmonton hopes to make a deep run, it would be incredibly useful to have a better idea of what he can provide. The first round is, relatively, the most forgiving time to make that evaluation, and the team could benefit from a spark in net.
This series will also serve as a major test for the coaching staff. Kris Knoblauch and the coaching staff must show they can properly adjust to Anaheim’s rush offence and forecheck.
Game 4 begins tonight at 7:30 p.m. MT in Anaheim. Let’s see if this team can rebound and head back to Edmonton with the series tied.
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