You would go crazy trying to figure out why the Edmonton Oilers’ range of play has been so volatile this season.

Some games they look like a team destined for the draft lottery, and others, like last night, remind you why overlooking them to make another deep playoff run is foolish. The Oilers controlled the play at five-on-five against one of the NHL’s better five-on-five teams. Edmonton outshot Utah 23-13 in 54:29 of five-on-five play.

Edmonton played a solid game defensively. The only five-on-five goal they allowed was an unlucky double-deflection own goal that ricocheted off Darnell Nurse, then Connor Murphy, before fluttering into the net. Tristan Jarry stopped 17 of the other 18 shots he faced. He didn’t have to be spectacular, just solid, and he was.

Edmonton scored five goals for the second time in four games without Leon Draisaitl. I’ve long argued scoring goals isn’t a concern in Edmonton. Some will overreact to depth scoring, but the Oilers’ main issue for the past decade has been limiting goals and high-danger chances. When they commit to the latter, the former becomes easier, and Edmonton has had stretches where they’ve proven to be a sound defensive team.

The Oilers have the talent to be good defensively. Adding Connor Murphy and Jason Dickinson gave them two players who take pride in their defensive play. Rookie Josh Samanski has played a very responsible and mature game defensively. When the Oilers’ top players commit to a consistent, committed defensive game, we see games like last night. We saw this two weeks ago when they won in Vegas and Colorado, and even in their OT loss in St. Louis, where they gave up very little for the first 52 minutes of the game. The Oilers are capable of shutting down teams.

We saw it last year in the playoffs after they stumbled out of the gate, allowing 28 high-danger chances in their first two games against LA. They went 12-2 in their next 14 games over LA, Dallas and Vegas and averaged 2.36 goals against per game. They were even better against Vegas and Dallas in rounds two and three, surrendering 21 goals in 10 games while scoring 38.

Make no mistake, Edmonton has the talent to contend for a Stanley Cup. Tampa Bay, Colorado and Dallas are the only teams against which I would rank Edmonton as an underdog. Minnesota would be a tough series, because of how they play, but their depth at centre might be their downfall. Carolina doesn’t have the high-end offence to match. Buffalo is playing great, but they, like Montreal, Anaheim, Utah, Ottawa and the Islanders, lack playoff experience. Nashville, Pittsburgh and L.A. have been great matchups for Edmonton for years. Vegas would be a tough matchup, and right now seems the most logical first-round opponent. Both teams have battled inconsistency, are looking for better goaltending, but Vegas’ offence is MIA right now.

I’d argue Edmonton’s toughest competition could be internal. When they struggle, it often isn’t the opposition, except for Florida. The Panthers, especially in last year’s Cup Final, were the better team. They deserved to win. A healthy Zach Hyman might have altered things a bit, but even if he was healthy, I don’t think Edmonton would have won. The Panthers were deep and had numerous players play the best hockey of their careers. They were a juggernaut. Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, Carter Verhaeghe, Matthew Tkachuk, Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell and Sam Reinhart had outstanding performances, many of which will be hard to match in the future. When a team has that many players rolling, they are hard to beat.

The Oilers don’t have to worry about facing the Panthers this season, but the main question will be: Can they find consistency in their game? Because when they do, they are one of the best teams in the NHL. When you see how they played in Utah, Vegas and Colorado, it is difficult for me to suggest coaching is holding the Oilers back. Clearly, when they commit to the system Kris Knoblauch has implemented, they can control the game. Knoblauch and all the players would love to find the answer as to why they can’t play like they did in those games more often. I don’t think it is as simple as the coach needs to motivate them better. Virtually every NHL player I’ve spoken to over the past 25 years outlines that 95 percent of motivation comes from the players themselves.

It has been a frustrating season for the Oilers. They know they are capable of playing better than they have, but outside of the 25-game stretch between Dec. 1 and Jan. 21 where they ranked third in the NHL with a 2.56 GAA, they have struggled finding a combination of sound defensive play, consistent goaltending and constant offensive production. Their offence has been very good since November 1st. They had a bit of a slow start in October, but for me, offence is rarely an issue.

The great news for Edmonton is they can erase the frustration in the playoffs. They’ve proven they can play well when it matters. Ideally, you like to see them show more of that in their final 10 games of the regular season, but even a good final 10 games won’t guarantee playoff success. We know the playoffs are different. They are more intense. More physical. Faster. Louder. The Oilers’ core has been through the battles. They know what to expect.

But there are certain aspects of a team’s play that can give you more belief entering the post-season. And one of the main ones will be lowering their goals against and high-danger chances, while increasing their intensity in battles and their physical play. Last night, the Oilers showed they can win in those areas.

Zach Hyman had seven hits. Hyman was a one-man wrecking crew in the playoffs last year with 111 hits in 15 games. If it wasn’t for the unlucky injury in Game 4 against Dallas, Hyman would have crushed the NHL record for hits in one playoff year. Blake Coleman had 126 in 25 games in 2020. Hyman was on pace for 155. Hyman doesn’t run around like a man possessed in the regular season, but last night he set the tone in the first period with some hard, solid body checks. Vasily Podkolzin had 100 hits last year and Trent Frederic on a bum ankle had 85. Kasperi Kapanen had 43 hits in 12 games and showed he can make an impact physically.

Edmonton doesn’t play overly aggressive in the regular season, but they dial it up in the playoffs. They will have to again.

Paul Coffey has used Connor Murphy and Darnell Nurse as his main shutdown pair the past two games. Nurse played the most minutes against Nikita Kucherov on Saturday and last night Nurse and Murphy played 10 minutes against Utah’s top forward Clayton Keller. Nurse and Murphy have had two very good defensive games. Outside of the odd double-ricochet goal, they didn’t give up any goals against. That pairing, along with Dickinson, will be key to the Oilers having a long playoff run. Nurse has all the ability to be a solid shutdown defenseman when he commits to playing within himself. If he does, it will allow the Oilers to play Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm along with the McDavid line in more favourable matchups.

The absence of Draisaitl down the stretch could actually help the Oilers heading into the playoffs, just like it did late last season, because it allowed other players more offensive opportunities and when Draisaitl returns, they should have more guys feeling good about their offensive games. Plus, without Draisaitl down the stretch, the Oilers have to be more committed defensively because they might not score as much. His void can oddly help them be more focused at both ends of the rink.

The Oilers have been frustrated for long stretches this season. It was clear in their play and their comments, but the lack of consistency doesn’t equate to a lack of talent. The Oilers have enough talent, skill, speed and physicality to win.

The question is: Will they commit to doing it more regularly than they have through the first 72 games? If they do, then they, without question, can go on another long playoff run.

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