Lord Byron once said, “The best prophet of the future is the past.” Byron was an English poet in the early 1800s, and his quote connects to many aspects of life, including sports. This quote should be front and centre in the Edmonton Oilers management office as they decide what direction to head this off-season.

The main question being asked is, “Will they fire Kris Knoblauch?” Two things have been a staple in Edmonton the past decade: blame the goalie and blame the head coach. It happens constantly. Are they really going to go down that path again? Here’s a look at the five head coaches Connor McDavid has had in his career.

Knoblauch has had the most success, but a few things haven’t changed regardless of the coach. The Oilers give up too many goals. Since 2015-16, the Oilers have ranked 20th in goals against/game at 3.00. Their penalty kill is below average, sitting 19th, with only one season above 80 per cent. Granted, in Knoblauch’s first season (69 games), the PK was 82 per cent under him. But like his predecessors, the Oilers were unable to maintain a competent penalty kill.

Inconsistent defensive commitment has been the calling card of this organization for the past decade. They give up too many goals and can’t kill penalties consistently. Rinse, wash, repeat.

But once again the off-season talk, in some circles, is about firing the coach and what they will do in goal.

The four most used goalies, Cam Talbot, Stuart Skinner, Mikko Koskinen, and Mike Smith, all had a .904 SV% or higher, and Smith had a 2.70 GAA, while Talbot and Skinner had 2.74 and Koskinen had 2.98. Not great, but often they were the “reason” the Oilers lost. And once again that is the conversation.

How about trying a different approach, like asking your skaters to actually commit to play solid defensive hockey? They’ve shown they can do it in spurts, but eventually they revert back to cheating for offence, making high-danger passes that result in turnovers, and often they gift goals. I’ve argued for the past decade that no team is better at playing Santa Claus than the Edmonton Oilers. They gift the opposition goals better than any franchise.

Maybe the organization should look at that, but instead they will revert to their same routine of firing the coach and changing the goalie.

Bruce Cassidy is the new darling for many fans online. “He’s won a Cup,” and “He will demand the players play defence,” are the two most common reasons why he will work in Edmonton. He might, but are you sure about that? Dave Tippett and Todd McLellan came with reputations of being good defensive coaches. Same with Ken Hitchcock. It didn’t lead to lower goals against, at least not for any extended period of time. In McLellan’s second season, the Oilers finished eighth in GAA and made the playoffs. Then they were never close to that number again.

The Oilers can fire Knoblauch. He isn’t perfect. I’d have preferred he did a few things different this past season, and he should share some of the blame, but to heap it all on him would be foolish. It would just send the same tired message to the players: The coach didn’t do his job. The players will say the usual. “It’s on us. We cost him his job,” but I’ve heard that before, and for a short time they will commit to playing better defensively, but they always revert back to loose hockey. They’ve said for the past three seasons how they know they can play defence, and as I said earlier, they have for stretches, but it never lasts. The off-season question that should be asked is why. Why can’t they find some defensive consistency?

This past season they couldn’t find their defensive game and it, along with injuries, is why they are out in the first round for the first time since 2021. The players weren’t good enough. Neither were the coaches or management, but maybe the organization should try a different approach. How about they don’t scapegoat the coach, and actually commit to being better as a team from top to bottom? Just a thought.

— Yes, the Oilers need better play from their goalies next season, but do you think it might be easier to achieve that with better defensive play in front of him? Remember in Knoblauch’s first season (69 games), Stuart Skinner was fifth in GAA (2.46) and seventh in SV% (.912). Skinner wasn’t an elite goalie, but when the team committed to being attentive defensively, he looked much better. Amazing how that works.

— The idea of playing Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the same line was brought up at the end-of-season media availability. The Oilers discussed doing it last season and did start the season with them on the same line. Personally, I don’t like it. But Colorado won a cup with their two best forwards on the same line, Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, so it is possible. Rantanen wasn’t a centre, though, and that’s the difference in Edmonton. If they want to try it, then commit to it for 40 games. Not two or 10, but 40.

My question is why can’t the team succeed with them running their own lines? Pittsburgh won three Stanley Cups in nine years with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin running their own lines. They were on the power play and five-on-five. Neither was on the PK. That’s how you deploy them — it allows others to get involved and for McDavid and Draisaitl to focus on their play five-on-five. Regardless of who their linemates are, they should be able to produce. Those two should stand up and say they want to centre their own lines and be done with it. If you hit a dip, battle through it, don’t ask for different linemates.

— The only way a McDavid/Draisaitl combination will work is if the Oilers have two solid centres to play 2C and 3C. They don’t have that right now. They would have to re-sign Jason Dickinson, but he’s only scored double digits in goals once in his career. He is a very good defensive-minded centre. I’m not sold Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can be a regular second-line centre, but if he is, he’d have to have Zach Hyman and Vasily Podkolzin on his line to make it work. If you play McDrai together, then you get the ninth forward. They can’t have Podkolzin or Hyman and then expect the depth to score. It would likely be Isaac Howard to start on their line, which is a lot to ask a rookie, but if they want to play together, they can’t have everything.

— What is interesting is how people recall the past. Draisaitl said the 2024 team was their best team. The penalty kill was amazing at 94.3 per cent. They crushed it, and it was a major reason they went to Game 7 of the Final, but their five-on-five numbers of their depth forwards weren’t great, in terms of GF-GA. Derek Ryan (2-10), Ryan McLeod (4-12), Corey Perry (3-6), Warren Foegele (9-17), Evander Kane (11-15). But because players killed penalties at an amazing rate, they won games. The truth is each year will be different, but one of your penalty kill or defensive play at five-on-five has to be great in order to go deep.

— If they fire the head coach, I just feel it is ignoring the main issue: a lack of defensive commitment. Actions speak louder than words, and the Oilers’ actions the past decade have always shown they don’t respect the defensive game enough. They do in glimpses, but not often enough.

— The Carolina Hurricanes are 7-0. They could become the first team since the NHL went to four rounds of seven games (1987) to sweep their opening two series. Via the NHL, the Hurricanes are the fifth team to start 7-0, joining the 1989 Montreal Canadiens, the 1994 New York Rangers, the 2008 Pittsburgh Penguins, and the 2024 Rangers. They all lost their eighth game, but the 1994 Rangers won the Cup, while the Canadiens and Penguins lost the Cup Final. Colorado could become the sixth team to start 7-0 if they win in Minnesota on Saturday.

— I didn’t expect Evan Bouchard to win the Norris, because there are many really good candidates, but I thought he’d have a good chance to be a finalist. His numbers, offensively and defensively, were good enough. Bouchard, along with Zach Werenski, Cale Makar, Lane Hutson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Moritz Seider, all had very good seasons. It will be interesting to see the voting when they announce the winner. Bouchard can use this as motivation. I think some people still view him as a “bad giveaway” defender. I think that is overhyped. Yes, he makes some glaring errors, but he does many things exceptionally well. But he could channel his inner Michael Jordan, “I took that personally,” and reduce the glaring giveaways next season and show his teammates the importance of having a good defensive foundation all season.

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