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Who are the Oilers most likely to play in Round 1 of the playoffs?
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Photo credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
Zach Laing
Apr 14, 2026, 18:00 EDTUpdated: Apr 14, 2026, 17:17 EDT
The 16 teams are set for the NHL playoffs.
The Edmonton Oilers clinched their spot last week, and on Monday, the Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings and Philadelphia Flyers punched their ticket.
Three first-round matchups have been confirmed, with the Dallas Stars taking on the Minnesota Wild, the Pittsburgh Penguins facing the Philadelphia Flyers, and the Tampa Bay Lightning going at it with the Montreal Canadiens.
What remains is every other playoff matchup, and likely of greatest interest to you, who the Edmonton Oilers will face in the first round.
To say it’s still up in the air would be an understatement, but we have an idea heading into Tuesday’s games who they’re most likely to square up with, thanks to HockeyViz and Hockey Stats.
Both site models have the most likely matchup for the Oilers being the Ducks, with HockeyViz predicting a 41 percent chance and Hockey Stats a 56 percent chance. Their next best opponent – and you may want to avert your eyes to this one — are the Los Angeles Kings.
The Oilers have outside chances at playing the Colorado Avalanche, Utah Mammoth and Vegas Golden Knights, but both models see those are far less likely outcomes.
So what could happen Tuesday night that could impact things?
The Golden Knights, who aren’t playing, can lock up home ice in the first round if the Minnesota Wild beat the Ducks. The Kings, meanwhile, would secure the second wild spot in the west and a date with the Avalanche if they lose to the Vancouver Canucks in regulation, the Ducks get a point against the Wild and the Mammoth get one point against the Jets.
Edmonton still has an outside chance at the Pacific Division title if they beat the Canucks Thursday, but would need Vegas to lose their final regular season game in regulation to the Seattle Kraken on Wednesday, and the Ducks to gain at most three points in their final two games.
Buckle up. It should be a few fun days of scoreboard watching.

Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s managing editor, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the Daily Faceoff DFS Hockey Report. He can be followed on X at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach.laing@bettercollective.com.

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