The Edmonton Oilers are rolling, but tonight will be their toughest test, arguably of the season, for a variety of reasons.
Their opponent, the Colorado Avalanche, has the fourth-best record in the NHL since November 1st. They rank 5th in GF/GP (3.26) and 9th in GA/GP (2.74) in that timeframe. Then you add in that Edmonton is playing its third game in four nights, the back half of a back-to-back, and this is game seven of essentially an eight-game road trip.
Edmonton is 5-1 through the first six games, but tonight the Oilers face their best opponent after lots of travel and the additional hurdle of altitude.
Colorado has the highest elevation of any NHL city, by a significant margin over most other cities.
Denver has an altitude of 5,280 feet. Seattle is 520 feet, Boston 330, Pittsburgh 1370, Chicago 673, Minnesota 980 and Edmonton is 2,201. The biggest challenge players talk about is ensuring you don’t take too long of a shift, as that is where you notice it, and if you take too long of a shift, it takes a lot longer than usual to recover.
The altitude is just another challenge, and it is magnified due to the talent of the Avalanche. Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar are among the truly elite players in the NHL, and they have 70, 61 and 50 points respectively. Only 17 players have 50 points thus far and the Avalanche have three of them, while the Oilers have two in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. There will be no shortage of elite talent on the ice tonight.
Both teams are quick. Both can score and defend. While the Avs are 5th and 9th offensively and defensively since November 1st, the Oilers rank 1st and 5th in GF and GA. What makes the regular season so unique — but also not always a great indicator of how good a team is — is how travel and fatigue can be a factor in games. In the playoffs, both teams have the same schedule, other than the initial flight by the road team to travel to the home city for game one.
Since January 3rd, the Oilers have played seven games and travelled 11,541 KM.
Meanwhile, Colorado has played six games and travelled 3,958 KM. Colorado has played three games at home and three on the road in Chicago, Minnesota and Winnipeg. They have been at home in Denver since Sunday and played the Rangers this past Tuesday.
Fatigue is real. It’s not like players can’t function, but the gap between top teams is very small, and in the regular season “travel legs” are a legit thing. Tonight’s game looks like a “scheduled” loss for me. It doesn’t mean the Oilers can’t win, of course they can, but beating Colorado when both teams had equal rest would be a challenge — tonight the challenge is magnified due to the schedule and the recent frequency of games.
Edmonton has played quite well in Colorado lately. The Oilers are 2-1-2 in their last five regular season meetings dating back to 2021-2022.  They defeated the Avs 4-3 earlier this season on November 30th. It was the second half of a back-to-back after they won 4-3 in Utah on the 29th. The difference was the Oilers had a five-day break prior to playing in Utah. They were well rested. The Avs were playing their third game in four nights, and they had lost 5-3 the night before in Dallas.
Rest is a major advantage when two teams are equal in talent faceoff, and tonight Colorado has that advantage. Edmonton has played great for months, and they won’t just roll over, but they will need Stuart Skinner to play great like he did in the first period v. LA on Monday, as the Oilers needed 15 minutes to find their legs. But the Avs are better offensively than the Kings, and that’s why tonight will be fascinating to watch. Can the Oilers find a way to push through fatigue?

SNAPSHOTS…

— Six players in the NHL have 60+ points and four of them will go head-to-head tonight. MacKinnon (70), Draisaitl (65), McDavid (62) and Rantanen (61) should make this an electrifying game. All four of them are centering their own line so we could see them battle each other quite often. Rantanen and MacKinnon still play together some, but lately they have been apart more than together, similar to McDavid and Draisaitl. I hope we get a few shifts will all four on the ice.
— They rank 1st-4th in EV scoring. MacKinnon has 50, Draisaitl 47, McDavid and Rantanen have 43, however it is important to note the NHL includes empty net points in EV scoring. Here is a more in-depth breakdown of their points.
5×5: Draisaitl (33), McDavid (32), MacKinnon (28) and Rantanen (24).
3×3 and 4×4: Draisaitl and McDavid (11), MacKinnon (10) and Rantanen (6).
EN points: Rantanen (13), MacKinnon (12), Draisaitl (3) and McDavid (0).
— Here’s a GF-GA look 5×5 for MacKinnon, Rantanen along with Cale Makar and Devon Toews.
  • They’ve played 294 minutes together and are 11-10.
  • In 88 minutes with MacKinnon, Makar and Toews they are 4-0.
  • In 31 minutes with Rantanen, Makar and Toews they are 3-1.
  • Makar and Toews in 144 minutes without either forward they are 3-5.
  • Rantanen and MacKinnon in 126 minutes without either defender are 7-4.
  • MacKinnon in 58 minutes solo is 5-2
  • Rantanen solo in 98 minutes is 4-6.
And now a look at McDavid, Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm.
  • They’ve played 163 minutes together and are 16-5.
  • In 317 minutes with McDavid, Bouchard and Ekholm they are 11-11.
  • In 122 minutes with Draisaitl, Bouchard and Ekholm they are 5-6.
  • Bouchard and Ekholm in 111 minutes without either forward are 4-5.
  • Draisaitl and McDavid in 31 minutes without either defender are 2-3.
  • McDavid solo in 19 minutes is 2-1.
  • Draisaitl solo in 334 minutes is 13-6.
Draisaitl plays the most without the others and he’s been excellent in both GF-GA as well as shots and expected GF%. And the Oilers’ big four together has been much better than when Colorado’s big four are on the ice.
— Hockey can be weird. Prior to last night, the Oilers were shorthanded only 64 times in their last 32 games. They were the least penalized team in the NHL averaging 2.00 times shorthanded/game. Last night they took three penalties in the first period. They didn’t take another the rest of the game, so it’s not like three minors is a big deal. Just odd for them to take three in one period. And the PK had only allowed 10 goals on the previous 64 kills before allowing two on three last night against a Wild PP without Kirill Kaprizov and Brock Faber.
— The Avalanche average the 6th most PP chances/game at 3.04 while the Oilers are 28th at 2.45. Edmonton is 8th in PP success at 25% while the Avs are 17th at 21.2%.
— McDavid passed Jari Kurri (1,043 points) for second on the Oilers’ all-time scoring list last night picking up three points (157th time he’s done that) and he now sits with 1,044 points second only to Wayne Gretzky’s 1,669. I believe he will pass Gretzky, because he will re-sign with the Oilers. The Oilers have some of the greatest players ever, and so McDavid’s numbers v. Gretzky might not look as great, but when you take a moment to see where he is against other NHLers, you are reminded of how truly dominant he has been.
McDavid moved ahead of Daniel Sedin for 81st on the all-time scoring list last night. He will pass Henrik Sedin (1,070 points) later this season. McDavid is on pace to finish this season with 1,101 points, which would put him two points ahead of Glenn Anderson and into 67th spot. McDavid is already 81st in only 686 games. Wild.
— McDavid got away with an elbowing minor last night on this play.
It was a clear elbow. Johansson’s reaction might have hurt him getting the call. No doubt McDavid hit him directly in the head. Johanson left the game and didn’t return, which means he might have a jaw/head injury. I don’t expect there will be a fine.
— Edmonton didn’t play great last night against a weakened Minnesota lineup, but they overcame a 2-0 and 3-2 deficit to win. Calvin Pickard made two huge saves in the game. One right before McDavid’s second goal of the game and the save on the 2-on-0 breakaway.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Arvidsson
Janmark – Henrique – C. Brown
J. Skinner – Philp – Kapanen
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
Skinner
Stuart Skinner hasn’t allowed a goal in two of his last three starts. He will likely need to be very good again tonight. The Oilers didn’t skate the morning and Kris Knoblauch won’t speak until 6:15 p.m., so the lineup is just a guess. Josh Brown played last night, and picked up his first assist as an Oiler, but usually Knoblauch doesn’t like guys sitting out both games of a BTB, so I could see Troy Stecher in.
Noah Philp played 8:52 last night. He didn’t get any time on the penalty kill, but Knoblauch mentioned his ability to kill so I think at some point soon he will get a look there, at least in the third unit. He was 4-1 on faceoffs. He was 2-0 v. Freddie Gaudreau and Marat Khusnutdinov and was 0-1 v. Ben Jones. A good start in the dot for Philp. If I’m Knoblauch I want to see how he reacts in a BTB situation. Jeff Skinner has sat out three games in a row, and usually Knoblauch doesn’t like it lasting longer than that, so I slotted him in for Corey Perry. Could see Kasperi Kapanen get a night off for Skinner as well.

Avalanche

Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Drouin
Kiviranta – Rantanen – O’Connor
Colton – Kelly – Parssinen
Innala – Mittelstadt – Polin
Toews – Makar
Girard – Manson
De Haan – Middleton
Blackwood
McKenzie Blackwood has been stellar in his 11 starts with the Avs since being acquired from San Jose. He is 9-2 with a .941Sv% and 1.63 GAA. He has yet to allow more than two goals in a game. He allowed two Nashville, Vancouver, San Jose, Seattle, Winnipeg (twice) and the Rangers and he allowed one to Utah, Montreal, Florida and Minnesota. He is second in the NHL in goals saved above expected since being acquired. Skinner is 10th if you’re curious.

TONIGHT….

GDB Corey Perry Edmonton Oilers Colorado Avalanche
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
GAME DAY PREDICTION: The schedule is a factor, and a tired Oilers team loses 4-2.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: MacKinnon, Rantanen, Draisaitl and McDavid all get on the scoresheet.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Noah Philp and Parker Kelly have a spirited tilt.

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