It’s been an arduous experience at times for Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton.
A perennial top point producer, he’s established himself as one of the top players in the entire National Hockey League, scoring the second-most goals, the second-most points and the most power play goals — 18 more than his next closest competitor — over the last three years.
The majority of his ice time at five-on-five over that time has been with Connor McDavid and Zach Hyman on the top line. They’ve formed one of the most potent trios in the NHL, consistently dominating the opposition and outscoring them at a over a two-to-one rate. Without them on the ice, the Oilers have managed to narrowly tread water, with multiple coaches staffs playing them, on average, for 2:47 per night between the 2021-22 and 2023-24 seasons.
Edmonton’s “break glass in case of emergency” line has been anything but, even as the team has tried to split them apart at times. And while Draisaitl’s ability to drive his own line has improved, especially in the last calendar year, the issue of finding him consistent linemates has proven difficult. Whether it’s been Kailer Yamamoto, Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Warren Foegele, Jesse Puljujarvi, Connor Brown, Dylan Holloway, or Mattias Janmark, the door has consistently revolved on Draisaitl’s wings.
For one reason or another, the Oilers have been unable to find the right mix of players for him to play with when he’s not stapled to McDavid and Hyman. When the team moved to sign both Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner this summer there was palpable excitement that they would finally be able to end that. Jeff Skinner hasn’t quite seemed to work out in that spot, but the same can’t be said for Arvidsson.
He and Draisaitl have seen 93 minutes of ice time together at five-on-five this season, looking dominant in the minutes they’ve played. The Oilers have controlled 62.8 percent of the shot attempt share, 60.7 percent of the shot attempt share and 57.5 percent of the scoring chance share when on they’ve been been on the ice together. The only problem is that they’ve struggled to score until very recently, Thursday night, to be exact, when they were on the ice for two five-on-five goals together.
It’s a promising development that chemistry has begun to build with them, and what’s notable is who was on their left flank: Vasily Podkoklzin, another newcomer to the Oilers who has struggled to find his way in his early days in Edmonton. While there have been promising signs in Podkolzin’s game, his attachment to the aforementioned duo has seemed to spark something.
Oct 31, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl (29) celebrates with teammates after his goal against the Nashville Predators during the second period at Bridgestone Arena.
The three have played 37:21 at five-on-five together, an admitted small sample size that will need to be validated later with hopefully more ice-time, but the early results are very promising. They’ve controlled 68.2 percent of the shot attempt share, 62.6 percent of the expected goal share and 57.9 percent of the scoring chance share. What’s ailed them is their ability to convert, getting outscored 3-1 thus far, despite all being on the ice for Arvidsson’s game-opening goal Thursday.
On-ice shooting and on-ice save percentages have plagued them, scoring on just 3.2 percent of their shots, while Oilers netminders have saved just 81.3 percent of the shots they’ve faced with them on the ice. This provides promise for a multitude of reasons, given those numbers are unsustainably low, and will only climb with more ice time together. That began to actuate Thursday, outscoring the opposition 1-0.
Their offensive and defensive play-driving rates have been tremendous, significantly limiting the amount of quality chances the opposition has gotten while getting plenty of high looks themselves. In fact, based on the quality of these looks, they’ve accounted for 2.6 expected goals, while allowing just 1.5, essentially flipping what their actual goal numbers show right now. Those expected goal numbers should have them scoring on 8.3 percent of the shots they’ve taken, instead of just the 3.2 they have.
And when you watch them skate together, you can see why. Draisaitl’s ability is obvious, as a big-bodied power-forward who can score at will, while Arvidsson brings an element of speed and finesse that’s complimented his centre well. Podkolzin, meanwhile, has been one of the most physical forwards in the league this season and on Thursday, showed his offensive ability to dig out pucks, and get them to the players that are best suited for converting on chances.
Podkolzin’s performance in the top six against Nashville, which included a fight where he laid a devastating right hand on Predators defenceman Jeremy Lauzon, may have been enough to give him a long look on Draisaitl and Arvidsson’s wing.
The aforementioned sample size, once again, is small, and the 100-minute mark is typically considered to be where the results can be sticky, so it remains to be seen whether or not these three will be able to continue their early success.
But with McDavid on the shelf for weeks, there’s no better time than now to see if they can continue to deliver.
Zach Laing is the Nation Network’s news director and senior columnist, making up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.