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How should the Edmonton Oilers deploy Isaac Howard in 2026-27?
Photo credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images
The projected structure of the Edmonton Oilers’ forward lineup in 2026-27 creates an interesting dilemma for 22-year-old forward Isaac Howard.
Traded to the Oilers from the Tampa Bay Lightning last summer in exchange for Edmonton’s 2024 first-round pick Sam O’Reilly, Howard is the organization’s top prospect in an otherwise unremarkable pool. With Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent‑Hopkins now entering their mid‑30s, the Oilers badly need an injection of youth and skill near the top of their lineup, and alongside Matt Savoie, the expectation is that Howard has the upside to eventually develop into a long‑term fixture on Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl’s wings.
In 2025‑26, Howard appeared in 29 NHL games, averaging just over 10 minutes per night and finishing with five points. He spent most of the season in the AHL, where he played 49 games for Bakersfield and excelled in several areas, most notably goal-scoring. After a strong campaign with the Condors, the hope is that 2026‑27 could be Howard’s breakout year in the NHL.
However, where should the young forward play in Edmonton’s lineup? The answer isn’t exactly straightforward.
Can Isaac Howard find a role in the Oilers’ bottom six in 2026-27?
First, let’s establish that Howard’s most notable attribute is his goal-scoring ability.
The typical spot for talented, young, but unproven forwards in the NHL is often the third line. It’s a role that offers meaningful minutes without the pressure or competition of a top‑six spot, while avoiding the limited minutes of a fourth‑line spot. This could also help address a key issue for this Oilers team, whose depth scoring cratered in 2025-26; without McDavid and Draisaitl on-ice, Edmonton scored fewer than 1.7 goals per hour at 5v5, a steep drop from the 2.42 rate they posted in 2022‑23. Theoretically, this is a way that Howard could provide great value to Edmonton.
However, this may not be the most viable option in this case. With Jason Dickinson re‑signed, it’s clear the Oilers envision a defensively oriented third line, one that is likely to be built to focus on taking tough matchups and limiting chances against.
Even though Howard made strides in his off‑puck game in Bakersfield, defending is not yet a strength of his in my view, and, obviously, it is counterproductive to place a young natural goal‑scorer on a defensive shutdown line. He should be playing in a spot that makes the most of his strengths, which are his offensive abilities.
There is one scenario where a third‑line role could work, if Edmonton ever considers playing Ryan Nugent‑Hopkins as a third‑line centre while Dickinson is bumped down to 4C. In that setup, I could absolutely see Howard generate chemistry with RNH and another winger, perhaps Mathieu Joseph or Kasperi Kapanen. However, given the Oilers’ five‑year commitment to Dickinson, and the fact that his underlying defensive results are genuinely strong, it is hard to imagine the team being comfortable relegating him to a fourth‑line role.
As for the fourth line, that should be off the table entirely. It should not even be a consideration to let Howard average 9 or less minutes per game there. It doesn’t benefit the team and actively harms the player’s development.
I am also not a fan of sending Howard back to Bakersfield for another season. Simply put, he has already demonstrated he can dominate at the AHL level, and I don’t see a lot more for him to prove down there. I believe this is an NHL-ready player who deserves a legitimate shot in Edmonton’s lineup.
So, what about the top six?
With all of that in mind, that leaves a spot somewhere in the top-six as the remaining option.
Firstly, there could absolutely be an offensive fit between Howard and Leon Draisaitl. Draisaitl’s elite playmaking paired with Howard’s quick release and knack for finding soft ice could produce a lot of goals. Certainly quite appealing on paper.
Still, I would like to revisit this article from May where I discussed what the optimal wingers look like for McDavid and Draisaitl. In regards to Draisaitl, the summary of what I wrote is that Draisaitl has historically played best with tenacious forecheckers, such as 2019-20 Kailer Yamamoto, Vasily Podkolzin, Kasperi Kapanen, and more. These are players that hunt loose pucks, disrupt opposition breakouts, and extend possession. That’s not exactly the type of player I would describe Howard as, whose underlying puck battle results from the NCAA were rather poor.
Conversely, Draisaitl has struggled to build chemistry with pure scorers. His underlying numbers with Evander Kane were abysmal, he never clicked with Jeff Skinner (though their TOI was limited, but worth noting nevertheless), and his results with Jack Roslovic were mediocre at best.
Of course, Howard isn’t Kane or Roslovic, and the point isn’t that Draisaitl can’t play well with scoring wingers. He absolutely can, given that the other winger on that line is defensively responsible and can forecheck. But, I think there is a meaningful difference between “Can Howard succeed on Draisaitl’s wing?” and “Is that the optimal deployment for him?”
I’d still be very intrigued by a line of Howard – Draisaitl – Podkolzin, with Podkolzin handling the bulk of the forechecking and defensive workload. That setup could work well. However, you do have to wonder if Draisaitl would be maximized with two forecheckers on his wings; think back to how much success he had with Podkolzin and Kapanen last season. This is also a big reason why I like the idea of Matt Savoie with Draisaitl and Podkolzin instead.
On the other hand, as noted in that earlier article, Connor McDavid has historically performed better next to scoring wingers than Draisaitl has. And there is another compelling reason why McDavid might benefit far more from a player like Ike Howard. Take a look at McDavid and Draisaitl’s 5‑on‑5 goal share with and without each other over the past two seasons:
Without McDavid, Draisaitl has done well with a 56 percent goal share. But without Draisaitl, McDavid’s goal share is just 51%. In terms of differential, that’s just +4. Obviously, still net positive, but that’s quite underwhelming given the fact that this is Connor McDavid.
The expected goal share here clearly indicates that McDavid’s line has been underachieving. Part of this is simply due to poor goaltending, but a big portion is lacklustre finishing. EvolvingHockey rates McDavid’s impact on generating even-strength scoring chances (RAPM xGF/60) to be the best in the league over the past two seasons, and it’s not exactly close. Yet, his impact on actual goals is noticeably lower, largely because the team has scored nearly 10 fewer goals than expected with McDavid on the ice without Draisaitl. Put simply, his wingers aren’t finishing the many quality chances he creates.
Particularly with Zach Hyman on his wing, who ranks fourth in generating scoring chances among all players, the top line is not in desperate need for another play‑driver. What they require is someone who can consistently finish the chances they create, and that’s exactly the type of element Howard can bring.
I believe Howard’s release is already at an NHL level. A shoot-first player with quick, efficient finishing is the sort of player that I think McDavid’s line has been missing for quite some time. If the Oilers want to fully maximize McDavid’s output at five‑on‑five, he needs a winger with real finishing talent, and Howard fits that description better than anyone currently in the system.
All things considered, it might be rather unconventional to start an unproven prospect on the top-line out of the gate to begin a season. But, the structure of Edmonton’s forward lineup and Howard’s set of skills creates a pretty unique set of circumstances. And, not to mention, the organization should be learning from the Dylan Holloway saga about what can happen when you don’t give your young forwards a legitimate opportunity.
There is real evidence to suggest that Howard can bring value on Connor McDavid’s wing, and I’d absolutely argue he’s earned the chance to prove it.
Find me on Twitter (@NHL_Sid)
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Edmonton OilersTeam Cap Summary
Cap Summary
2026-27
2027-28
Projected Cap Hit
$99,274,166
$87,350,000
Projected Cap Space
$4,725,834
$26,150,000
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$26,150,000
Active Players
23/23
15/23
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