Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s matchup between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Edmonton Oilers.
Lightning vs. Oilers Odds
- Tampa Bay Lightning Moneyline: +120
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -145
- Puck Line: Lightning +1.5 (-200), Oilers -1.5 (+165)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -120, Under +100)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Lightning (14-11 SU, 11-14 ATS, 12-11-2 O/U)
Tampa Bay kicked off their Western Conference road trip with a 4-2 win over the Vancouver Canucks on Sunday. Now, they’ll aim for their third win in a row against the Oilers. That’s easier said than done based on the moneyline odds, but Edmonton will need to at least partially shut down what has been the league’s highest-scoring club over the last month—and that won’t be easy, either.
The Lightning already ranked among the top 10 offensive teams, but no team has scored more goals per 60 minutes (3.95) than Tampa Bay since Nov. 3. In fact, they’ve scored three or more goals in all but five games this season. This could spell trouble for an Oilers team that’s been far more vulnerable to poor shooting luck this year, even if they’ve been scoring more lately.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has had a solid season, ranking 15th in goals saved above expected among goaltenders that have faced at least 500 unblocked shot attempts. However, the Lightning have also been playing well defensively. Tampa Bay ranks 10th in expected goals against and 11th in shot attempts against at even strength, per Evolving Hockey.
Tampa Bay’s power play remains one of the best in the league, with a 25.97 percent success rate, but it’s been even better as of late. Only one team has a better power play percentage than the Lightning’s 37.9 percent mark over their last 10 games, and while their penalty kill has been mediocre on the season, it’s improved a lot. In their last 10 outings, the Lightning have killed 84 percent of the penalties they’ve taken.
Handicapping the Oilers (15-12 SU, 10-17 ATS, 11-15-1 O/U)
Edmonton’s penalty kill and power play have both been running smoothly after a rocky start. Over the last 10 games, the Oilers have converted nearly 30 percent of their power play opportunities, while killing 90.9 percent of their penalties. However, as mentioned, the Lightning will provide Edmonton’s special teams with a tough matchup, whether we’re talking attacking or defending.
The Oilers are a better team at even strength, though. Edmonton has controlled 54 percent of the expected goals, 55 percent of the shot attempts, and 56 percent of the shots on goal. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has owned roughly 52 percent of the expected goals, 51 percent of the shot attempts, and 49 percent of the shots on goal. In other words, the Oilers should control play on Tuesday.
The Lightning currently have a stronger even-strength goal share than the Oilers, but Edmonton has narrowed the gap over the past month with its recent improvements. With Zach Hyman back alongside Connor McDavid, that trend could continue. However, Tampa Bay remains one of the top offensive teams at even strength this season, and despite Edmonton’s increased scoring, the Lightning are still producing more.
Edmonton has allowed three or fewer goals in all but eight games this season, and that’s good, because they’ve lost all of the games in which they allowed their opponents to score four or more. In other words, the Oilers will likely have to play one of the best defensive games of the season if they want to defeat the Lightning, who have scored four or more goals in seven of their last 11 games.
Best Bet for Lightning vs. Oilers
Brayden Point Anytime Goal (+175) at Sports Interaction
Point trails Leon Draisaitl for the league lead in goals by just one, despite playing six fewer games. After scoring twice against Vancouver, he has 18 goals in 21 games, leading the league in goals per game. His 36.7% shooting percentage may regress, but with back-to-back seasons above 20%, it’s not like he’s going to fall off. So, let’s try to hit another anytime goal bet, shall we?
Brayden Point Over 0.5 Points (-155) at Sports Interaction
Point has recorded a point in 17 of 21 games this season, including eight in his last two. He’s registered at least one point in seven of nine games since returning from injury, making this a good bet with or without a goal. Both this player prop, and the anytime goal prop are priced too generously for a player of Point’s stature, and it won’t surprise me if sportsbooks end up making some adjustments to how he is being priced throughout the day.
