After earning a pair of relatively unconvincing victories in Games 3 and 4 of the series, the Edmonton Oilers completely dominated the Los Angeles Kings from wire-to-wire in their Game 5 victory and now have the opportunity to end the series on home ice Thursday evening.

Los Angeles is a considerably heavier underdog in Game 6 than it was in Games 3 and 4 in Edmonton. The Kings were priced at +115 in Game 4 but are currently priced at +140 as they look to stay alive in this matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Oilers clearly elevated their level of play in Game 5, while the Kings looked far more disconnected and overwhelmed than they have at any other point in this series.

From a statistical perspective, it’s been almost unheard of for any team to be outplayed as badly as the Kings were in Game 5 in recent postseasons. It seemed likely that the Oilers had solved some of their concerns in Games 3 and 4, but it was still hard to imagine that Game 5 would be so noncompetitive, and the Kings wasted a truly incredible performance from Darcy Kuemper.

Kings head coach Jim Hiller has been very stubborn in relying heavily upon his top two defensive pairings and nine forwards to play the vast majority of the minutes, despite the fact that many of the team’s top stars have struggled mightily with the heavy workload later on in this series.

Drew Doughty and Mikey Anderson have already played 102.9 minutes together at even strength in this series, and the results have been awful. They hold an expected goal share of just 34%, and the Kings have generated only 1.87 xGA/60 in those minutes. They are getting extremely tough usage versus the Oilers’ top stars, and most pairings would struggle in those minutes, but the numbers still suggest it would be wise for the Kings to try spreading the minutes around in Game 5.

The Kings’ top offensive line of Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe and Andrei Kuzmenko has also been heavily outplayed, as they hold a 38% expected goal share and have allowed 4.84 xGF/60.

Considering that overall roster depth was one of the Kings’ strengths this season and that their top players are not faring overly well in this series, it’s been surprising to see the deployments that we have when their top stars are looking withered.

The Kings’ forecheck was ineffective in Game 5, and they were unable to generate chances of neutral zone turnovers the same way that they had earlier on in the series. The Oilers forwards did a great job of supporting the middle of the ice and tracking back, while their defensive core managed the puck more effectively in transition.

The Kings’ power play broke through once again in Game 5 when Kuzmenko scored the first goal of the game, and they were able to keep Edmonton’s high-powered power play in check. Their effective special teams performance was rendered irrelevant though, given that they were entirely dominated at even strength.

Kuemper will get the start in this die-or-die matchup. He holds a +0.5 GSAx rating and .899 save percentage in the series, but those numbers are heavily aided by his Game 5 performance.

Do the Oilers have the Kings all figured out? That will be the question entering this game, as if tonight’s matchup looks anything like Game 5 did, they will likely be off to Round Two for a likely matchup versus the Vegas Golden Knights.

It’s hard to pick out one skater from the Oilers’ roster who had a bad performance in Game 5, and from a tactical perspective it was one of their cleanest performances in recent memory.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl did fare extremely well from a run of play perspective, but neither of them recorded a point prior to the 3-1 empty net goal. Evander Kane scored for the second straight game, and was heavily involved all night long. He has been an x-factor in previous postseasons for the Oilers and looks to be finding his form after missing the entirety of the season.

The Oilers’ bottom-six was very effective in Game 5 overall, and if that is the case moving forward, there is no reason this team can’t author another deep run, as we know McDavid and Draisaitl are capable of stealing games in which Edmonton does not carry the majority of the overall run of play.

The Oilers’ defence core suddenly looks much more competent than it did early in the series. Evan Bouchard managed the puck well in Game 5 and eliminated the costly mistakes that have made him such a polarizing player in this series.

Jake Walman was arguably the best player from either side, and the Oilers outshot the Kings 26-7 in his 20:04 of time on ice. Walman was highly effective this season playing on a terrible San Jose Sharks team, and continues to look like a critical pickup considering Mattias Ekholm’s absence from the lineup.

Calvin Pickard did not face an overly difficult workload in Game 5, but he looked sharp, stopping 21 of 22 shots faced overall. He is expected to get the nod in this matchup, and holds a .904 save percentage in the series.

With their season on the line, the Kings will surely make some adjustments and offer a more competitive performance in this matchup. However, it appears as though the Oilers have taken over this series as they have cleaned up their game in a number of key areas, and it seems likely that they can build on their Game 5 performance in this matchup.

The Oilers defence core did a much better job of managing the puck in Game 5, and the Oilers forwards did a great job of tracking back to allow Edmonton’s defenders to play aggressively at the blue lines. If the Kings can’t find success generating rush chances in transition and capitalizing on the Oilers’ miscues, they will likely have a hard time creating quality looks once again tonight.

The fact that Edmonton’s bottom-six also seems to be trending into better form also has to be daunting to Los Angeles, as in general Edmonton has found success in its previous series versus the Kings because of the incredible production of the Oilers’ top stars.

At -105 I see value backing the Oilers to win this game in regulation, and wrap up the series on home ice.