Game 1 hasn’t been kind to the Edmonton Oilers during the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era.
Since 2017, the Oilers have played in 13 playoff series, but they’ve only won Game 1 three times. The good news is that two of those wins came last season.
This core group of Oilers rarely makes things easy on itself. They’ve trailed in their series 76.9 percent of the time over the last nine seasons.
Year
Opponent
Result
Series
2017
v. SJ
4-3 L
W in 6
2017
at ANA
5-3 W
L in 7
2020
v. CHI
6-4 L
L in 4
2021
v. WPG
4-1 L
L in 4
2022
v. LA
4-3 L
W in 7
2022
 at CGY
9-6 L
W in 5
2022
at COL
8-6 L
L in 4
2023
v. LA
4-3 L
W in 6
2023
at VGK
6-4 L
L in 6
2024
v. LA
7-4 W
W in 5
2024
at VAN
5-4 L
W in 7
2024
at DAL
3-2 W
W in 6
2024
at FLA
3-0 L
L in 7
When they win Game 1, they are 2-1 in a series, including two series last year. When they lose Game 1, they are 5-5 in the series, and they are 2-3 when they lose the opening game on the road.
Winning the first game doesn’t guarantee you will win or lose the series. Each series is unique, but Edmonton has beaten them three years in a row. The Oilers won by seven games in 2022, six games in 2023 and five games last year. It’s a trend the Oilers want to continue, while LA wants it to end.
The Kings had the best home record in the NHL this season at 31-6-4 and outscored teams 142-81. They were dominant. They are very confident at home, and their fans are too, and that’s why a victory for the Oilers tonight could severely impact the series. It instantly takes away the Kings’ positive thoughts on home ice, and even though the players will tell you each year is different, an opening-night loss would plant the seeds of self-doubt inside a Kings team which has lost three years in a row.
The biggest challenge in the playoffs is trying to avoid the rollercoaster of emotions — getting too excited after a win or too dejected after a loss. It isn’t as easy as saying, “Don’t think about it.” If it was, then it wouldn’t be an issue, but it is and it will be.
The Oilers can lose Game 1 and still be confident they can come back, like they did in 2022 and 2023. LA doesn’t have that, and won’t, until they win a series. The Kings haven’t won a series since hoisting the Stanley Cup in 2014. They’ve missed the playoffs five times and lost in the first round five times. I believe a Game 1 defeat will have a deeper negative impact on them than it would on the Oilers, and that’s why a win tonight for the Oilers would set them up well.
The Oilers didn’t do themselves any favours by finishing third in the Pacific and, barring a few big upsets, ultimately starting each series on the road. But a win tonight would make the path to a series win easier.
Edmonton Oilers Jeff Skinner scores goal against Buffalo Sabres
Jan 25, 2025; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Jeff Skinner (53) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Buffalo Sabres at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

SNAPSHOTS…

— To date, 8,674 players have played one NHL regular-season game. Jeff Skinner is tied for 264th in games played at 1,078, and tonight he will make his playoff debut after 15 seasons. He will be the 4,792nd player to play in a playoff game. Rookie defenseman Zeev Buium dressed last night for Minnesota. It was his first NHL game. He made a playoff appearance before a regular-season game, while Skinner had to wait 15 years. He might feel like a rookie again when the game starts, as his excitement level should be high.
— Corey Perry will play his 216th playoff game tonight which ranks 12th on the all-time list. He could move into the top 10 this year if the Oilers win a round. Bryan Trottier is 10th at 221. Glenn Anderson is eighth at 225, Scott Stevens is fifth at 233 while Chris Chelios is first at 266.
— Connor McDavid has 36 points in 18 games against the Kings in the past three playoffs. Leon Draisaitl has 17 goals and 30 points in 18 games. Those stats are why I picked the Oilers to win. LA hasn’t found a way to contain either of them.
— The Oilers’ PP is 25-for-55 (45.5 percent) in the three previous series. The Kings had the second-best PK in 2024, and the Oilers still torched them (45 percent) in the playoffs last year. The Kings have altered their PK this season and they are much more aggressive. Their PK has to be good to keep them in games.
— Evander Kane won’t play tonight. There is a chance he could play Wednesday, but Game 3 might be more realistic. We’ll see. Troy Stecher is unlikely to be available for at least the first four games. Trent Frederic is a game-time decision. I think he will play.
— Ty Emberson signed a two-year extension with a $1.3m AAV over the weekend. It is right in line with some other recent signings among young D-men, with limited games played, and who aren’t offensive. A solid and fair deal for both sides.
— Draisaitl led the NHL with 28 goals in 35 road games. He had 24 in 35 home games. He led the NHL at 1.58 points/game on the road, scoring 57 in 36 games. He has 6-6-12 in eight road playoff games in LA. McDavid has 16 points in eight road games. LA, even with the last change, hasn’t been able to slow down either of them.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Hyman – McDavid – C. Brown
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
J. Skinner – RNH – Frederic
Janmark – Henrique – Perry
Nurse – Bouchard
Kulak – Walman
Emberson – J. Brown
S. Skinner
Brett Kulak will play. He was back home welcoming a new daughter, Skyler, to the family. My sense is that Josh Brown will play tonight instead of Cam Dineen in the third pair. How Brown plays will determine if he remains in the lineup past tonight. I don’t expect him to play a lot of minutes. The top four D-men will eat up most of the ice time.

Kings

Kuzmenko – Kopitar – Kempe
Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere
Foegele –Danault – Moore
Malott – Helenius – Turcotte
Anderson – Doughty
Gavrikov – Spence
Edmundson – Clarke
Kuemper
Joel Edmundson returns to the lineup. He hasn’t played since April 5th and he’s a solid addition on their third pairing. He played the third-most minutes among Kings defenders this season and played close to 60 percent with rookie Brandt Clarke. The Kings did protect Edmundson a bit, as he only played 22 percent of his TOI against elite players. With Drew Doughty back in the lineup, the Kings will use their top two pairs as much as they can against the Oilers’ top two lines. If I’m the Oilers, I’d be very aggressive on pressuring Clarke. This is his first playoffs and young defenders can struggle with the heightened intensity and turn pucks over. I’m sure LA will have the same approach on the Oilers’ third pair. Emberson and Brown are not the best puck movers.
GDB Edmonton Oilers Leon Draisaitl Evan Bouchard Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Jeff Skinner Stuart Skinner Connor McDavid Zach Hyman Los Angeles Kings
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk at Handmade by Tom

TONIGHT…

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers win on the road 4-2.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Draisaitl scores his 42nd playoff goal in his 75th game.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Trent Frederic picks up his first point as an Oiler.