The magic number the Edmonton Oilers are focused on isn’t the one used in nuclear physics. It’s the number of points the Oilers need to clinch their playoff spot.

That number for the team is 10. Sure, it’s a formality at this point for a team with 98.9 per cent odds of making the post-season, according to Moneypuck, but there’s an old saying about counting chickens before they hatch.

Besides, continuing to focus on stacking good performances, the process-over-results approach to their game, will instill the right mindset and focus required for the playoffs in the next couple of weeks. With the Anaheim Ducks losing in regulation to the San Jose Sharks in a stunning Macklin Celebrini-led comeback, the Oilers can draw level for the Pacific Division lead with a victory tonight.

“Our game isn’t sexy right now. It’s not fancy. It’s just a lot of little things, and that’s usually the difference between winning and losing,” said Kris Knoblauch after a 3-0 shutout victory over the Kraken on Tuesday night.

“We have six defencemen and 12 forwards each night who are doing it.”

It’s four wins in a row for the Oilers, their longest run of the season. But now Kris Knoblauch has a problem. Admittedly, a good problem to have.

Trent Frederic is ready to return from injury, so who gets pulled out of this winning lineup?

“We’ll probably make some lineup changes just to get everyone involved and have some game-playing time. Then also we have to consider roles, whether you’re on a power play, on the penalty kill, and, you know, positional play, key faceoffs, that kind of stuff,” said Knoblauch after practice Wednesday.

“Difficult decisions are often good ones to have.”

Short straw, Hyman doesn’t skate

To my eyes, Max Jones is everything the Edmonton Oilers were hoping for when signing Trent Frederic. Jones scored his third goal of the season off his face against the Kraken, but his face was in the right spot — in front of the net. After Connor McDavid stole his goal against the Ducks on Saturday, the Hockey Gods rewarded Jones.

Frederic’s game had gotten noticeably better post-Olympics, but Jones has just one fewer goal and point than Frederic, despite playing only a quarter of the games.

“He has played really well for us this season,” Knoblauch said of Jones on Wednesday. “I’ve liked his energy, his speed, and also getting in on the forecheck with some hits. And he’s been rewarded with goals as of late the last couple games.”

The Oilers’ fourth line with Curtis Lazar and Josh Samanski were a key part of the team’s ferocious start to the hockey game. The trio finished with a 65.53 expected goal percentage at five-on-five, according to Natural Stat Trick, and outscored the enemy 1-0.

Samanski’s defensive awareness has made the 24-year-old North American rookie an asset instead of a liability. In 18 games, the Oilers have outscored the opposition 8-5 when he’s on the ice, and he has a 54.73 expected goal percentage.

At practice on Wednesday, Samanski was the 13th forward, and Zach Hyman did not participate.

Both Jones and Samanski are on emergency recalls. If they want to stay up, their status would be switched to regular recalls. With seven games remaining, that doesn’t seem like a major issue for the Oilers.

Another candidate is Adam Henrique, who extended his dubious goalless drought to 50 games on Tuesday. Henrique had a couple of great chances and is clearly snakebitten. Overall he played one of his stronger games in recent memory, while continuing to eat up penalty kill minutes, and being a trusted presence in the lineup.

But with his lack of production, and younger, quicker, thoroughbreds champing at the bit, would Knoblauch sit the veteran and make him a fringe player in the lineup going forward?

Old faces vs. new friends

Connor Murphy and Jason Dickinson will see their old Chicago Blackhawks teammates for the first time since they were traded tonight.

Paired up with Darnell Nurse, Murphy seems to be getting the best out of his partner as of late, who played great against the Kraken.

Although a return to Chicago will have to wait until next season, it’s still an easy game to get up for.

“I don’t know what it’s going to be like,” Murphy told reporters on Wednesday. “I’ve been traded once only before, from Arizona originally, and it was weirder to go into that building you played in. Hopefully it doesn’t feel as weird still playing here at home at Edmonton, and I’m sure it’ll feel a little odd seeing some of the faces, but I just hope that that the game feels normal when it starts.”

There will be no “revenge” for Andrew Mangiapane as he won’t play against his former team tonight. As the negative asset attached with a first-round pick to get Chicago to bite on the deal, Mangiapane has been hurt since March 19.

He will make the trip on the Hawks three-game west coast swing, though. Since being dealt, Mangiapane has scored a goal and an assist in seven appearances.

Playing out the string

There were glimmers. There was hope to begin the season for the Chicago Blackhawks. But it wasn’t meant to be.

With cupboards already full of young and exciting pieces, plus sitting 31st in the league, they’ll get a chance at Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, or Keaton Verhoeff when the draft lottery balls get drawn.

Being far out of the playoff picture, they’ve gotten a look at Anton Frondell, whom they took third overall in last year’s draft. He scored his first NHL goal on Tuesday against the Winnipeg Jets, and he has five points in five games.

Game results, though, lack for the Hawks. They’ve lost four in a row, won just once in their last seven, and are 5-8-5 since the Olympic break. In their last 10 games, they’ve been one of the most porous defensive teams in the NHL.

Chicago has an astounding 34.2 expected goals against at five-on-five, which is far and away the worst in the league during this span, eight expected goals worse than the 31st-place team.

They make up for it with the worst expected goal percentage in the league, rounding out to a minus-16.18 expected goal differential. Dramatically poor numbers.

However, they’re a young team with nothing to lose. Connor Bedard and Tyler Bertuzzi have achieved career highs in points and goals, respectively. They beat Minnesota a couple of weeks ago in regulation and Utah twice in the same week earlier in March.

The Oilers need to resist any temptation to believe it’ll be an easy night.

Notes:

Frederic went down on March 19, missing a total of five games.
The Oilers only got one man-advantage opportunity vs the Kraken and it did not go well. That extends to a one-for-18 stretch without Leon Draisaitl in the lineup.
The Blackhawks still have the league’s penalty kill at 83.9 per cent, although Winnipeg scored on their lone opportunity on Tuesday.
Edmonton’s penalty kill has killed off nine straight penalties.
On this winning streak, the Oilers have trailed for just three minutes and 15 seconds.
The last four-game win streak came from January 11-16, 2025. Only the Philadelphia Flyers this season haven’t registered a four-game streak.
A pair of key blueliners, Artyom Levshunov and Matt Grzelcyk, are both out of the remainder of the season for Chicago.
Lengthy defender Kevin Korchinski has been called up and playing more. He was drafted seventh overall in the 2022 draft, but has spent more time in the AHL than the NHL the past two seasons.
Connor Ingram was excellent vs Seattle, but does Kris Knoblauch keep Tristan Jarry in the mix? The Oilers play the Golden Knights on Saturday, have two days off, than a back-to-back on the road in Utah and San Jose.
Colton Dach is pushing toward a return to the lineup, called “day to day” by Knoblauch on Wednesday.
At the dots, the Oilers are sixth in the league, winning 52.6 per cent of their draws. The Blackhawks are 31st, winning 46 per cent of faceoffs.
The Oilers are 2-0 against the Blackhawks this season, and 9-1 in their last 10 matchups.

Michael Menzies is an Oilersnation columnist and co-host of Pregaming and Oilersnation After Dark. He’s also been the play-by-play voice of the Bonnyville Pontiacs in the AJHL since 2019. With seven years of news experience as the Editor-at-Large of Lakeland Connect in Bonnyville, Menzies collects vinyl, books, and stomach issues. Follow him on X at Menzies_4.

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