The Edmonton Oilers face the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night at Benchmark International Arena, and nobody really knows what to make of either team. Tampa’s made roster moves in the past couple of days, calling up players from AHL Syracuse to deal with injuries. But let’s be honest—Edmonton’s been shuffling their lineup constantly, too.

Tampa Bay has been just okay this season. They’re 10-8-2 through 20 games, sitting currently in a five-team tie for the second Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. They’ve dealt with injuries that forced them to recall defencemen from the AHL and shuffle their roster almost daily. They activated Dominic James from injured reserve while placing Maxwell Crozier on it. They’ve been calling up players like Jakob Pelletier and defencemen Declan Carlile and Steven Santini just to have enough bodies for games.

That sounds rough until you remember the Oilers are 9-9-4 and dealing with their own issues. Edmonton’s allowed 79 goals through 22 games. They gave up seven to Washington last night. They lost 5-1 to Buffalo earlier this week. They’re below .500 in terms of true wins and losses and can’t string any stretch of strong play together consistently enough to climb the standings.

So what should Oilers fans make of Tampa Bay tonight? The honest answer is that Tampa, even when they’re struggling, even when they’re dealing with injuries, even when they’re sitting outside the playoff picture, is still dangerous. That’s what two decades of excellence and two Stanley Cups in two years can build—a culture and roster that knows how to win even when things aren’t perfect.

Victor Hedman is still Victor Hedman. Nikita Kucherov is still one of the most dangerous offensive players in the league. Brayden Point can take over games. Andrei Vasilevskiy has won everything there is to win in hockey. When you have players like that, you’re never really out of any game, regardless of what your record says or how many injuries you’re dealing with.

The Lightning might be managing injuries and roster chaos, but they’re not a team you can take lightly. They’ve been in these situations before, and they have depth that’s been developed through years of success.

Edmonton, meanwhile, is still trying to figure out what they are. One night, they beat Carolina playing physical, engaged hockey. Two nights later, they allowed seven goals to Washington. They match their opponent’s intensity one game and deliver low effort the next. The Oilers’ inconsistency makes every game a coin toss, regardless of the opponent.

Tampa Bay is always dangerous. That’s the bottom line. It doesn’t matter if they’re dealing with injuries. It doesn’t matter if they’re sitting eighth in the Atlantic Division. It doesn’t matter if they’ve been just okay lately. When you have the likes of Guentzel, Kucherov, Point, Hagel, Hedman, and Vasilevskiy, you’re capable of beating anyone on any given night.

Edmonton needs to treat this like facing a legitimate contender, because that’s what Tampa Bay is—even when they don’t look like it on paper. The Oilers can’t afford another loss where they score four goals and still get beaten because their defensive structure falls apart. They can’t afford to give Tampa space and hope their goaltending bails them out.

The harsh reality is that Edmonton has been worse than Tampa lately. The Lightning are managing injuries and sitting outside the playoffs. The Oilers are managing nothing and sitting at .500. Tampa has an excuse for their inconsistency. Edmonton doesn’t.

So yes, tonight at Benchmark International Arena, the Oilers face a team that’s been just okay this season. But they face a team that knows how to win, has talent throughout the lineup, and remains dangerous regardless of circumstances. Tampa Bay has moved players around. So has Edmonton. Both teams would like a consistent set of games. The difference is that the Lightning have two Cups in recent memory and they know how to find it. Edmonton is still proving they can.