If you told me that earlier this season, I wouldn’t have been too bothered, given his lack of production and the team being shelled when he was on the ice. But the thing is, since the calendar flipped, Frederic has been a useful member of the bottom six, especially since the end of the Olympic break.

It’s not as big a loss as losing Leon Draisaitl for the remainder of the season, but make no mistake about it: losing Frederic for any period of time is a tough blow. As the season continues, it’s hard not to think that the high-ankle sprain he suffered last season played a part in his tough start to the season. It’s sort of a similar situation to Connor Brown in 2023-24.

Since the Oilers returned to action, against the Anaheim Ducks on Feb. 25, Frederic has two goals and three points in 12 games. That doesn’t sound like a lot, and it really isn’t, but that makes up half of his season total in both goals and points done in the preceding 55 games. However, we’ll look at Frederic’s underlying numbers during five-on-five action courtesy of Natural Stat Trick in this article.

There’s no simple way of putting this, Frederic’s first three months of the season were poor. In October, the Oilers had 45.67 per cent of the expected goal share with Frederic on the ice during five-on-five. November was his worst month, as the Oilers had 42.12 per cent of the expected goal share while giving up nearly double the high-danger scoring opportunities than they generated.

Frederic bounced back a bit in December, with the Oilers owning 46.72 per cent of the expected goal share. While the Oilers were still outscored with Frederic on the ice during five-on-five action, they generated more high-danger chances (24) than they gave up (21), a sign that things were changing for the 28-year-old.

January is when Frederic began to look like that player the Oilers wanted to acquire ahead of the 2025 trade deadline. Frederic spent a lot of time (just over 54 minutes) alongside Mattias Janmark and Curtis Lazar during this month, with the trio owning 54.42 per cent of the expected goals, outshooting teams, and generating more high-danger opportunities than opponents. When away from those two, the Oilers owned 58.92 per cent of the expected goals and 64.29 per cent of the high-danger chances.

Overall, he had 50.86 per cent of the expected goals with Frederic on the ice in January, while outshooting opponents 55 to 44, and generating 29 high-danger chances while giving up just 26.

There were just five games in February due to the Olympic break, so we’ll combine his performance in February and March. As noted earlier in the article, Frederic has been very good since NHL play resumed. In fact, the Oilers own 59.88 per cent of the expected goal share with Frederic on the ice. There’s one player who has a higher share of the expected goals, Mattias Ekholm.

Yes, Frederic has a higher expected goal share than Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, etc. Granted, that does come with the caveat of Frederic playing against easier opposition and getting far less five-on-five ice time than those five players.

The goals aren’t quite falling for Frederic, as the Oilers have been outscored seven to four with the 28-year-old on the ice. But the underlying numbers are darn good. Edmonton is outshooting opponents 66-54 and have generated 35 high-danger scoring chances while giving up just 19. That’s 64.81 per cent of the high-danger chances,

Of the 549 players in the league who have played 100 or more minutes since the start of February, Frederic’s 59.88 per cent expected goal share ranks 43rd. Additionally, his high-danger scoring share of 64.81 per cent ranks 19th best in the league with the same sample size and span of time.

There is one last stat that I want to look at addresses his actual goal share of 36.36. PDO is a stat that is used to determine how lucky a player (or team) is. It measures on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage, with 1.000 being average, under being unlucky, and higher (basically the Buffalo Sabres) being lucky.

Since the start of February, Frederic’s PDO sits at 0.931, thanks to a mix of a low team shooting percentage (6.06 per cent) and the Oilers being unable to buy a save with Frederic on the ice (.870 save percentage). By PDO, Frederic is the 35th unluckiest player in that sample size of 549 players.

I’m not going to go as far as to declare that the eight-year deal that Frederic signed this past off-season was good. Coming off a high-ankle injury, that term was always, at best, highly questionable. That said, Frederic is starting to look like the player that the Oilers wanted to acquire before the 2025 trade deadline, and his last two and a half months bode well for the future. Losing him is a big blow to their bottom six,which has already been rather unlucky this season.

Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Oilersnation, FlamesNation, and Blue Jays Nation. Follow her on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.

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