Oil Country is starting to feel a bit less tense these days. The Edmonton Oilers are riding a five-game winning streak, playing a more complete game, and starting to get bodies back in the lineup.

Curtis Lazar recently returned after missing nearly a month of action, and Trent Frederic made his return to the lineup last game against the Chicago Blackhawks, having missed a few games.

Yet, with bottom-six players getting healthy and returning to the lineup, there aren’t enough spots for everyone moving forward, with players like Adam Henrique, Josh Samanski, and Max Jones also all in the mix for fourth-line jobs.

As the Oilers position themselves for a playoff spot, and with the possibility of Leon Draisaitl returning to the lineup in the future, deciding who gets a spot on the fourth line won’t be easy. Each of the players mentioned is making a case for themselves, one way or another, to have a role in the playoffs — should the Oilers make it, of course.

That said, Jones has been playing lights out in limited minutes as of late, and based on that play, if he continues it, I feel he should be a lock for one of those fourth line spots. Also, it’s a topic that Tyler Yaremchuk and Liam Horrobin recently discussed on “OilersNation Everyday,” with Horrobin saying, “He’s done a great job of forcing himself into the conversation. Game 1 of the playoffs, I don’t know how you don’t play him.”

Jones has scored a couple of big goals, been a hitting machine, and tilted the ice for the Oilers since his recall, and that strong play is backed by very strong analytics, which we’ll dive into below.

Jones played eight games with the Oilers in December during a two-week stint but was sent back down to the AHL before the new year. However, when Colton Dach suffered an injury and went on LTIR on March 13, the Oilers recalled Jones from the Bakersfield Condors, and he’s made an impact in his limited ice time ever since.

He started gaining momentum in just the second game he played after being recalled, playing an action-packed 6:56 of ice time against the San Jose Sharks on March 17. He threw four hits, and with the game tied 3-3 in the third period, Jones pounced on a rebound for the go-ahead goal, which stood as the game-winner for the night. The 28-year-old hasn’t looked back since.

Overall, in nine games played since his recall, he’s scored two goals, both game-winners, and added an assist. He’s also been a ball of energy, using his 6-foot-3 frame to his advantage — shielding pucks, working the cycle, and is tied for the team in hits with 25 over that span.

The eye test certainly shows that Jones is tilting the ice in the Oilers’ favour in his average of 9:13 minutes per game, and the advanced metrics without a doubt support it, too.

Since being recalled on March 13, here’s where Jones ranks among Oilers at five-on-five in several categories, among players who have played a minimum of 65 minutes, according to Natural Stat Trick:

– 1st in shots-for percentage at 67.24 SF%
– 1st in expected goals-for percentage at 73.68 xGF%
– 1st in high-danger chances-for percentage at 78.95 HDCF%
– 2nd in scoring chances-for percentage at 59.32 SCF%

What’s more, Jones isn’t just near the top among Oilers in several underlying metrics since March 13; he also ranks at the top of the entire NHL in three categories.

Among players with at least 65 minutes played since then, here’s where Jones ranks across the league over his last nine games at five-on-five:

-1st in the NHL in expected goals-for percentage at 73.68 xGF%
-1st in the NHL in high-danger chances-for percentage at 78.95 HDCF%
-7th in the NHL in shots-for percentage at 67.24 SF%

Additionally, Jones once again had a good outing last game. He worked the cycle well against the Blackhawks, had three shots, drew a penalty, and at five-on-five posted 100 SF%, 100 xGF%, 100 SCF%, and 100 HDCF%, which earned him a shift on the second line with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins at one point.

That said, the knock on Jones, a former first-round pick, has been inconsistency throughout his career. As someone who follows the Oilers closely, I’m watching for the moment when he might take his foot off the gas pedal, but he hasn’t shown any signs of doing that just yet.

It makes me wonder if Jones, nearly ten years after being drafted 24th overall in 2016, has done some soul-searching about how to play to his strengths, and perhaps had a final realization of what he needs to do to stick in the NHL.

It could be a mix of those factors, and another is that at 28, he’s at the age where big, power-forward types with hands often start to put it all together.

At 6-foot-3 and 216 pounds, with size, hands, and the skating ability to match, he was drafted to be a power forward in the NHL — Peter Harling said of Jones in his draft year, “He is a physical, nasty, and aggressive winger who plays the body, and drives the net hard, a true power forward.” That said, Jones flashed that element last game against the Blackhawks, bullying his way toward the net with the puck in the third period for a backhand chance.

Additionally, we’ve seen previous Oilers of that mould hit their stride around age 28, which is the same age Jones is now.

Recent players that come to mind of that power-forward type with decent hands are former Oiler Pat Maroon, who played in Edmonton from 2015 to 2018 and had his best season at age 28, scoring a career-high 27 goals — though, of course, he spent a good chunk of that time playing with Connor McDavid at five-on-five. Another rough-and-tumble player who hit his stride at 28 was former fan favourite Zack Kassian, who reached the 15-goal plateau for the first time in his career in the 2018–19 season and built on that total the following year.

By no means am I suggesting that Jones will turn out to be as successful as those two players were for the Oilers or move up in the lineup , but it’s a plausible power-forward pattern you can’t ignore — age 28 seems to be when they figure out how to most effectively use their big bodies, and that’s something Jones is showing.

Additionally, there are two metrics from NHL Edge that Jones has improved on compared to last year. Last season, the hardest shot he took reached 80.08 MPH, ranking below the 50th percentile in the NHL, whereas this season he’s upped his shot to 86.74 MPH, placing him in the 61st percentile. His skating has also seen a very slight uptick, with his top speed increasing from 22.21 MPH last season to 22.36 MPH this season.

Overall, the Rochester, MI native has always had the tools in his toolbox — size, mobility, and sneaky good hands — but now it seems his motor is running at max (pun intended) speed, fueled by pure motivation. That said, if he’s truly figured it out, he’ll be a weapon on that fourth line in the playoffs, and that line may have found its driver in Maximus Jones.

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