For four years, the Edmonton Oilers have spent the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs navigating the Los Angeles Kings and their trap hockey. The Kings used their passive style to prevent clean entries and turn each series into a tight-checking slog. This year will be different.

Edmonton’s first post-season opponent, the Anaheim Ducks, love to push the pace. At times, even recklessly. They aren’t the most aggressive team in the neutral zone, but they love counterattacking off turnovers and will transition quickly if they force one. This series has the potential to turn into a track meet, and if the Oilers decide to trade punches with the Ducks, they’ll need everyone to chip in. Not just Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

During their up-and-down regular season, Edmonton has looked notably different when a few key players are performing at their highest level. With their top-end talent, it only takes a handful of secondary players to tilt a game. That’s where this series will be decided. Today, I’ll break down the X-factors who can swing the tide in Edmonton’s favour.

Connor Ingram

Throughout the McDavid era, the Oilers have received spotty goaltending in the playoffs. Stuart Skinner got yanked four times in 12 starts during the 2023 playoffs and temporarily lost the starting job to Calvin Pickard in each of their past two runs to the Stanley Cup Final.

This time, it’ll be a fresh new look, with Connor Ingram starting between the pipes. He last appeared in the playoffs back in 2022 for the Nashville Predators, who the Colorado Avalanche swept in the first round.

While Ingram couldn’t steal a game from the eventual Cup champions, his .913 save percentage was solid for a hopelessly outmatched Predators team. The Oilers would love for him to reach that mark in this series.

Anaheim is a flawed team, but they possess the skill at the top of their lineup to challenge Edmonton’s goaltender. Leo Carlsson, Beckett Sennecke, and Cutter Gauthier all shot above 13 per cent at five-on-five this season, with Gauthier doing significant damage off the rush.

Ingram has a .899 save percentage and 2.3 goals saved above expected this season for the Oilers. That ranks him slightly above league average in both metrics. What’s encouraging for Edmonton is that he’s been trending up for the past couple of months.

Since the trade deadline, he has a .908 save percentage, and he’s stopped 5.8 goals above expected in 15 starts. As the Oilers’ defensive game tightened up, Ingram’s numbers have started to approach top-10 territory over the past couple of months.

Now, a strong finish to the regular season doesn’t guarantee anything in the playoffs. We’ve seen goaltenders suddenly go cold in the post-season before, when opponents have more time to pre-scout their tendencies.

If he gives Edmonton above-average goaltending, though, as he has for most of the season, Ingram will make a difference in a high-event series.

Darnell Nurse

While the Oilers have enjoyed plenty of success over the past few playoff runs, the same cannot be said for Darnell Nurse. Since 2023, Edmonton’s playoff goal differential at five-on-five drops from plus-23 without Nurse to minus-14 with him. As their blueline leader in five-on-five TOI per game this season, he will need to be better.

The reasons behind Nurse’s playoff struggles are well-documented, particularly his rush defence and his handling of pressure on exits. The Ducks’ offence will test the former. As one of the best possession teams in the league, Edmonton is likely to control the flow of play for the most part in this series. The Anaheim forwards will try to use their speed to counter in transition, where Nurse is vulnerable.

Edmonton will bank on his developing chemistry with Connor Murphy to limit the damage off the rush compared to years past. Murphy is much better at defending entries than most of Nurse’s past partners, ranking in the 90th percentile in entry-chance prevention, according to All Three Zones. He plays a strong gap that will provide more resistance than a passive partner like Emberson would.

While Nurse and Murphy have been exceptional defensively so far, Nurse is still vulnerable to being forechecked and hemmed in his own zone.

If there’s any issue with this pair, it’s been the overabundance of icings and flips out to centre ice.

The good news for the Oilers is that the Ducks aren’t a very punishing team on the forecheck, and that could allow Nurse to settle in early and gain confidence on retrievals and exits.

He’s had a disappointing regular season overall, but since Murphy’s arrival, Nurse’s game has trended in the right direction. If he can continue to build on that, it will eliminate one of Edmonton’s biggest weaknesses over the past few playoff runs.

Matt Savoie

Perhaps the most crucial development for the Oilers this season has been the emergence of Matt Savoie as a legit top-six forward.

Savoie’s knack for getting to the inner slot and generating chances has been on display all season. Early on, he struggled to capitalize, however, and failed to get on the scoresheet consistently. He had to earn the trust of the coaching staff over time while playing primarily with underperforming bottom-six forwards.

Since the Olympic break, Savoie’s upside hasn’t just been showing in flashes anymore. He’s doing it night after night.

It’s taken time for him to find his game, just as it did in his first pro season in Bakersfield last year, but Savoie is hitting his stride at just the right time. He exploded for a first-period hat trick in the final game of the regular season to help the Oilers lock up home ice for this series.

Edmonton’s biggest advantage over Anaheim is its top-end talent. If McDavid’s line can dominate the Ducks just as they have the Kings over the last four seasons, it’s going to be an uphill battle for Anaheim. The trio of Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, and Hyman had grown stale, and Savoie has provided a spark that makes them much more dangerous.

As part of both Edmonton’s top line and top penalty-kill unit, Savoie will have his fingerprints all over this series, in all situations.

Colton Dach and Trent Frederic

The final two X-factors are the duo that Kris Knoblauch dubbed “The Bash Brothers” after practice on Sunday. Trent Frederic and Colton Dach have been a force since Dach arrived as part of the Jason Dickinson trade. They’ve helped stabilize a bottom-six that was getting caved in earlier in the season.

Dach and Frederic are two of Edmonton’s most physical players, and they both play a defensively sound game. It’s a style that should seamlessly translate to the playoffs. So far, they have a 4-3 edge on the scoresheet together, with a near 70 per cent share of expected goals.

Dach deserves a ton of credit for his simple, effective game since coming to Edmonton, but their success is also tied to Frederic’s turnaround. The high-ankle sprain that Frederic suffered last year compromised his mobility for months. Without the combination of size and speed to close on pucks, he couldn’t get going.

Now, his skating is looking the best it has during his time in an Oilers uniform. According to NHL EDGE, four of his top five speed bursts this season have come within the last two and a half weeks.

Frederic and Dach’s rugged style and responsible two-way play are creating a solid identity for their line, just in time for the playoffs. Don’t be surprised if one of these players is an unlikely hero in this series.

The bottom line

It hasn’t been a smooth season for Edmonton. It would be understandable to overlook them as Cup contenders given the inconsistencies, but they have a lot of players with upside who seem to be peaking at the right time.

Leon Draisaitl and Jason Dickinson are nearing a return, and the Oilers will have a chance to ice their ideal lineup for the first time all year. If their X-factors keep contributing, the Oilers will have an excellent chance to advance to the second round for the fifth year in a row.

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