Maybe strange isn’t the right word. Riding the rail of ups and downs like this Edmonton Oilers season has provided, being a part of many postgame shows where the flaws seem exposed and targeted, you have to laugh that, despite winning just two of their last six games, most fans expect the Oilers to destroy the Anaheim Ducks.

But I’m right there with you. I expect it too.

It goes to show how emotionally manipulative the full 82-game regular-season experience can be. For whatever reason, there has to be more frustration and concern than one would expect from a contender.

Of course, none of that truly matters.

The playoffs have arrived, and thank goodness for that. The lack of a consistent defensive structure from October to February has improved mightily. They’ve endured.

Endured what could’ve been a gutshot injury to their second-best player in Leon Draisaitl, endured the early-season travel, and endured a concerning goalie trade.

We know the Oilers have been fortunate to play in the Pacific Division, finishing just 14th overall in the league. Nothing they can do about that. Through fortune or fate, there is a path laid with a red carpet toward the Western Conference Final.

When you’re in the Edmonton Oilers’ skates, you’re in the most difficult position in sports: anything less than a championship is considered a failure.

Everything is a high-wire act, where the grand mob below would cheer louder if you fell than survived. At the other end of the tightrope is transcendence. Never again an allegation that Connor McDavid that he can’t win the big game – that the Oilers are wasting the greatest modern player. Together, they can all be immortalized and inscribed on the Stanley Cup.

They can be champions.

Some housekeeping points:

Record this week: 1-0-1
Record in April: 3-2-2
Home record in 2026: 12-10-2
Road record in 2026: 9-5-3
Record vs. the Pacific Division: 16-7-3
Home record vs. the Pacific Division: 10-1-2
Road record vs. the Pacific Division: 6-6-1

Home road splits

One aspect of the Oilers’ season that can be labelled as their bread and butter is how strongly they’ve performed at home against their division. Their lone regulation loss in 13 games was the 5-1 defeat to the Vegas Golden Knights on April 4.

Don’t hang a banner, but it’s worth knowing that the Oilers took advantage, with 45 per cent of their home wins coming vs the Pacific.

Now, the road record in division is a tad more concerning, going 6-6-2, and that’s where early-season losses to Vancouver, Seattle, and faltering against Calgary come into play. Two wins in Vegas were key.

But overall, since the end of the massive November road trip, the Oilers have been a great road team. They’ve gone 14-8-3 since November 29, with a .620 points percentage.

In short, the Oilers’ home and road splits are opposite to each other. Dominant at home in the division, but weaker against the rest (12-13-3). Strong on the road, but not as much in the division.

Some points of note as the Oilers hope to play two rounds against division opponents.

I wouldn’t be the first one to tell you that this playoff matchup feels like the 2017 playoffs, but in reverse for Edmonton. Heading into the series against the Sharks, the Oilers faced an experienced team coming off an appearance in the Stanley Cup Final.

Coincidentally, the Oilers then faced a hungrier Ducks team on the doorstep of winning a championship. You know the rest about goalie pads being held open and three-goal leads being squandered…

Jan 26, 2026; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; The Edmonton Oilers celebrate a goal scored by forward Zach Hyman (18) during the first period against the Anaheim Ducks at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

Why the Oilers can beat the Ducks

The Oilers remain one of the best defensive teams in the league since the Olympic break. The changes in the defensive zone have been more pronounced, where forwards chase less at the blue-line and instead, the team packs and clogs the middle to block more shots.

Nowhere is that seen more than Connor Murphy, who has 51 shot blocks since his first game in Edmonton on March 6, second in the NHL in that span.

Conversely, it’s seen in the offensive zone where the third forward goes puck chasing below the opposition’s goalline. This symptom of their game leads to rush chances for the enemy, which killed the Oilers in the first half of the season. We’ll know the Oilers are on their game when they’re being patient with the puck, especially in the o-zone.

The Oilers will win if they can break the Ducks’ forecheck. As important, they don’t cause any additional problems in their zone that the enemy has already created. Every team would love to control breakout on every chance, but that’s unrealistic. Sometimes a puck just needs to be chipped out. Those puck races in the neutral zone can also lead to off-script chances.

With Draisaitl and Jason Dickinson back in the lineup, the Oilers will have a distinct advantage at centre, and control the game by having the puck more often, being a team that won 52.6 per cent of their faceoffs, versus Anaheim’s 48 per cent.

The other factor is the team experience. The core of this team has been here and done that, and played in 13 playoff series the last four seasons. They’ve been down, backs pressed against the wall, and came out the other side. If anything, the Oilers crave adversity.

Anaheim’s four leading scorers are all 24 and younger. Their blue-line has playoff experience in John Carlson, Radko Gudas, and Jacob Trouba, but together, this group has zero. The Ducks seemed poised to claim the division and went 2-6-2 down the stretch. From the outside, it seemed like a team that saw the difference between being the hunter and the hunted.

It’s been a fine season of improvement for Anaheim, jumping 21 points from a year ago, watching their young stars develop, but it’s still a team that surrendered the fourth-most goals against. They’ve been exciting, but too exciting for a team to win in the playoffs. The Oilers know what that’s about – even after winning the first series in the McDavid era, they lost the next two series and weren’t victorious for another five years in the playoffs.

It takes time. Even if the Oilers get embroiled in a high-event game, they’ve won plenty of those over the years too.

Feb 25, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Anaheim Ducks left wing Cutter Gauthier (61) reacts after scoring a goal against Edmonton Oilers goaltender Connor Ingram (39) during the third period at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Why the Ducks can beat the Oilers

Anaheim will win this series because Lukas Dostal will cement himself as one of the league’s best goaltenders.

The 25-year-old is coming off his worst season in terms of save percentage, but the Ducks overall surrendered 25 more goals this season than last. He’s been hung out to dry often, and ANA has outscored its problems to win games. In his two appearances against the Oilers, he surrendered eight goals and finished with a .806 save percentage.

They’ll win because Dostal goes on a heater, as he tried in his 37-save performance for Czechia in a tight 4-3 overtime loss to Canada in this February’s Olympic quarterfinal. I’m reminded of a game last April against Anaheim where he made 47 saves to steal one.

The Ducks will win because they take advantage of an Oilers power-play that continues to struggle without Leon Draisaitl, or struggle to click when he gets back. With the power-play opportunities about to become pronounced, the Ducks outperform their 23rd-ranked PP and play at a 33 percent level (4/12), as they did vs Edmonton this season in three games.

Overall, the Ducks have five more man-advantage opportunities than the Oilers head-to-head. For the Ducks to win, they straddle the line physically and sucker the Oilers into penalties. Radko Gudas and Jacob Trouba can be two of the most punishing bodycheckers (legal and illegal) in the game. They’ll win if they bring their bruising game, maybe even cross the line. This could easily cause the Oilers to get distracted.

The Ducks win if they get to Connor Ingram and expose the areas the Oilers don’t have depth.

On paper, Edmonton seems as deep up front as ever. But their seventh defenceman in Spencer Stastney hasn’t played since March 19, and the comfort level with him in the lineup isn’t strong. There isn’t much of a mechanism to back a change on the blue-line, other than swapping pairings.

Plus, the Oilers don’t have a failsafe in goal. If Ingram struggles and the Ducks get out to a lead in the series, is Tristan Jarry, or even Calvin Pickard, a realistic option? I’m not so sure. Ingram’s been a revelation for the Oilers this season, no doubt. But it’s basically Ingram or bust.

And if Anaheim doesn’t get out to leads, they won’t get discombobulated when they trail by a goal or two.

They had 26 comeback wins this season, tied with Montreal for the most in the league, and nine of those were multi-goal. Overall, the Ducks set an NHL record with 19 combined game-tying goals and game-winning goals in the final 5:00 minutes of regulation this season. They never say die.

That’s been seen against the Oilers. The Oilers have had three-goal, two-goal, and three-goal leads in each head-to-head. In all of them, the Ducks either got within one goal or won.

If the Ducks get down, they’ve had a way of tilting the ice and getting the Oilers chasing wildly in their zone. Their offensive attack (reminds a guy of Jay Woodcroft) can be punishing, as they scored the 10th most goals in the league this season.

Final call: Overall, I’m confident this Oilers team will advance. The Ducks pose some exciting threats, but Edmonton will find a way, even if they struggle. I’m saying six games, which probably gives the Ducks too much credit. But I’m forever tempering my expectations of this team. I would not be surprised if it’s shorter.

Apr 9, 2026; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens defenseman Arber Xhekaj (72) checks Tampa Bay Lightning forward Corey Perry (10) during the third period at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

Series predictions by category

The “No, We Got Screwed the Most by the Format” series: Dallas Stars vs Minnesota Wild and Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens

A tie at the top in this category.

At this point, it’s hard to find anyone online who supports the current standings format. But Gary Bettman is just laughing. The third overall team vs the seventh overall team? The fifth overall team vs the seventh overall team?

Ratings gold, Bettman says to Bill Daly. Gold. Kenny Bania references aside, Stars-Wild has been preordained since November and I’ve flip-flopped on who I like more. Game 1 was much more important to the Wild, who needed a good start with their woeful playoff history and got it in spades.

Again, Minnesota has lost seven straight playoff series. I still think I need to see it first before I believe it. Then I got bullied by our team at the much-discussed Nation Playoff Draft on Friday night, and we got Kirill Kaprizov and Matt Boldy back-to-back in the third-to-fourth-round turn at the end of the snake. So let’s see it, Minnesota.

The Stars’ injuries ought to be a concern with Roope Hintz still not ready to go, and Miro Heiskanen just hustling back in. Plus, for all of Peter DeBoer’s issues in later rounds, his teams rallied after poor early game showings, and were automatic in Game 7s. Can Glen Gulutzan do the same?

Meanwhile, I will remain a skeptic about the Montreal Canadiens ability to translate their game to the postseason. It’s a bad draw getting the Tampa Bay Lightning. In the same breath, this Lightning team has a Victor Hedman problem. Their defence has handled it well in the regular season, but can they in the playoffs? Tampa hasn’t won a round since 2022.

In the end, the loser of each series will have the right to complain about a poor format that relies less on wins and losses and more on being lucky. Nothing will come of it. We’ll revisit the topic next year. Nothing will change. Rinse, repeat, etc.

Wild in six.
Lightning in six.

Ottawa Senators Brady Tkachuk Carolina Hurricanes Jordan Staal

Apr 18, 2026; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; Ottawa Senators left wing Brady Tkachuk (7) and Carolina Hurricanes center Jordan Staal (11) fight during the first period in game one of the first round of the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Lenovo Center. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images

The “Be Careful Everyone” Series: Carolina Hurricanes vs Ottawa Senators

Admittedly, on a first blush, this one had me thinking upset. Ottawa has been hot, has been through all their adversity, and still found a way to make the dance.

Then I read many opinions, saw the brackets, and thought, damn, this is the sexy upset. While it’s not so much a hockey adage, you always have to be skeptical of a public-beloved underdog. Then you revisit how the Canes do in first rounds – very good by the way, seven in a row– and you wonder if you’re getting too cute.

It’s always tricky. You know there’s going to be upsets, it’s the first-round after all, and with the rise of the NHL Bracket Challenge™ everyone’s looking for an edge. However, the last two postseasons saw each one-seed advance.

Is Frederik Andersen a good goalie? He might be the epitome of the goalies are voodoo mantra, not this season, but for his whole career. I still like this in the upset category, but I can already imagine writing next week’s column and saying, “Wow, a Canes sweep. Why are we surprised?”

I could be just jilted after having at least three playoff drafts over the years tied to Hurricanes success. In that case, it’s probably their year.

Sens in seven.

The “We All Hope It’s Like We Remember” Series: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Philadelphia Flyers

I remember the 2012 series. You remember the 2012 series. It was a circus of high skill, disgustingly poor goaltending, wild scrums, and hot soundbites. Ilya Bryzgalov and Marc-Andre Fleury were swapping meltdowns. The Flyers won two games with eight goals scored, the Pens won a must-win Game 4 by a score of 10-3.

In all, there was an NHL record 45 goals in the first four games, with 309 penalty minutes a whole lot of fights. Boy, she was fun.

That isn’t going to happen again, though. Rick Tocchet will structure the hell out of these games. If the Flyers get a lead, it could be a slog for the Penguins to claw back. Vladar has the edge in goal, but it’s not like he’s playoff battle-tested.

Truly, I have so little feel for this series, no result would shock me. But I have a feeling the Flyers win it, lose in the next round, and have a disastrous off-season where they organizationally believe they’re further along than they are.

Philly’s run with a 3.8 per cent chance to make the playoffs at the Olympic break reminds me of the Canadiens last year, who needed a similar heater post-Four Nations to make the dance. The key difference is the Habs had several young players already playing or still in the system, whereas the Flyers are still slim in that category.

It’s good for the game Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are back in the playoffs. It’s bad for the game they’re wearing those yellow alternates as their main home jersey. Flip a coin. The games will have thin margins. Vladar makes one more save.

Flyers in seven.

Pittsburgh Penguins Sidney Crosby Philadelphia Flyers

Jan 15, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Penguins center Sidney Crosby (87) celebrates his goal with right wing Rickard Rakell (67) against the Philadelphia Flyers during the third period at PPG Paints Arena. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The “Close the Blinds” Series: Colorado Avalanche vs Los Angeles Kings

They all can’t be tens. Nine out of 10 analysts recommend saving your eyeballs from watching the Los Angeles Kings willingly. It’s the toughest watch of the eight.

This is the one series where the result would be a true upset. Sure, the Avalanche have had injuries, but expect a full team for Game 1. Sure, they’ve only won a single round since the Stanley Cup in 2022. Sure, the Kings have been playing better under DJ Smith, but in order to drag a game into overtime, you have to be tied after 60 minutes. And with LA’s record of overtime games, it shows they struggle gaining separation in any game.

This is the right type of test for Colorado: low-risk, but they’ll be forced to raise their emotions. But also, there’s a very good chance we learn nothing of consequence about the Avs from this series.

Adrian Kempe will score midway through the first overtime in Game 3 after a 49-save Anton Forsberg performance.

Avs in five.

The “Home Ice Advantage For At Least The First 10 Minutes” series: Buffalo Sabres vs Boston Bruins

The Buffalo Sabres fans deserve this. Many Sundays now have I touted the Sabres as my bandwagon team in the Eastern Conference. It’s only fitting on Sunday night that the Sabres faithful will get rewarded.

Another adage for early playoff rounds is how beneficial it can be to start on the road with less distractions, and the psychological edge of just needing to win one of the first two to take home-ice advantage.

Two of the three road teams won yesterday, for instance.

The energy in the building will feature more free electricity than even Tesla could imagine. There will studio analysts saying the “key for the Bruins is weathering the storm.” It’ll be a spectacle.

With that said, rightfully, there’s skepticism about the Sabres.

The Bruins have the best single player in David Pastrnak and the better goaltender in Jeremy Swayman. Boston has the better powerplay, too, and much more experience.

Once the novelty wears off, I’m concerned about the Sabres. Plus, from a simple fan standpoint, it’s much easier to see this four-month run as the outlier in a 14-year futility of devastating heartbreak. Especially in a city that is seemingly cursed with championship aspiration teams like the Bills, or cellar-dwellers like the Sabres have been for so long.

But the heart wants what the heart wants.

Sabres in six.

Mar 25, 2026; Buffalo, New York, USA; The Boston Bruins and the Buffalo Sabres players get into a scrum after the whistle during the first period at KeyBank Center. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-Imagn Images

The “Night Owl Can’t Get Enough Hockey” Series: Vegas Golden Knights vs Utah Mammoth

Vegas and Edmonton have rode similar rollercoasters.

But since the VGK used the “break glass in case of emergency” option of firing Bruce Cassidy and hiring John Tortorella, the new coach bump is working as well as they could’ve hoped. They finished the season on a 7-0-1 run.

The Mammoth ought to be proud of their season. After the husk of that team has long been in the doldrums of the standings, it’s starting to turn around. There’s a buzz around Utah and the cast of exciting franchise pieces. They’re also deeper than you think, are top-10 in shots allowed and goals allowed, and should have the goaltending advantage in Karel Vejmelka.

What happens if Carter Hart struggles and they have to turn to Adin Hill. Not a good strategy.

Being the late west coast games, don’t expect a great level of chatter around this series. I’m not convinced Vegas walks all over Utah, either. I’ll choose the chaos.

Mammoth in seven.

Michael Menzies is an Oilersnation columnist and co-host of PreGaming and Oilersnation After Dark. He’s also been the play-by-play voice of the Bonnyville Pontiacs in the AJHL since 2019. With seven years of news experience as the Editor-at-Large of Lakeland Connect in Bonnyville, Menzies collects vinyl, books, and stomach issues. Follow him on X at Menzies_4.

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