In most mid-tier horror movies, at some point in the movie, one of the characters enters a dark room or goes outside in the dark, and while watching, you say, “Don’t go in there!”

But they do, and they get killed.

It’s essentially the same process watching the Edmonton Oilers right now. The outcome has become predictable. Horribly predictable.

The team’s defensive decisions, with and without the puck, cause you to say, “Don’t go there!”

But they do, and it leads to a goal against.

The Oilers were incredibly sloppy in the first period last night in Washington, and it cost them. They battled their way back into the game in the third period, but then they couldn’t get a key stop in that frame from Stuart Skinner.

On Washington’s fifth goal, Skinner got across late, mainly because he moved a few inches to his left, which I felt was odd, because Dylan Strome was coming down the right side on his backhand. The pass was more of a threat than the shot. Skinner originally moved slightly to his left, which meant he had to move even farther to his right to make the save on the pass. The play was a pretty straightforward read, and while it would have been a solid save, it wasn’t an impossible one to make, but he was late getting across. It also looked like he pushed across to the player, not the stick blade, and you want the goalie targeting that angle, because Anthony Beauvillier is a left shot, and the pass across had farther to go. Even having his blocker forward a bit more would have cut off the angle more.

Again, it wasn’t an easy stop because it was another odd-man rush, but you need a key stop at times. I also didn’t love Ekholm going so hard to Strome, when he’s on his backhand, rather than staying in the middle and allowing him to shoot on his backhand. Washington got some from Logan Thompson, who wasn’t great, but made two key saves in the third period when Edmonton was pressing for the tying goal. Last night, via Clear Sight Analytics, Edmonton had nine high danger (HD) chances and seven mid chances, while Washington had eight HD and seven mid. Edmonton had 11 low danger chances to Washington’s four. The difference was that Washington had 3.25 expected goals and scored five, while Edmonton had 3.62 expected goals and scored four.

Porous defence and unreliable goaltending have been the script too often through 22 games. They will either choose to play better, or the losses and frustration will continue to mount.

Edmonton was a top-10 defensive team in 2024, after Kris Knoblauch arrived, and they ranked there again last season, but this year, they are floundering. They aren’t tough enough in front of their own goal. They lose too many battles on the boards and still make too many unforced errors that lead to quality scoring chances. They don’t have elite goaltending, so when you combine that with weak and inconsistent defending, you get a team with 22 points in 22 games and ranking 29th in GAA at 3.64.

The Oilers have allowed four goals in 11 games, the most of any team in the NHL. And it isn’t just on the goalies. If you are going to be a bottom-10 team in defensive metrics, you will need a great goalie to cover up your issues. Edmonton doesn’t have that, and I don’t see one available in a trade.

What can change?

Skinner and Pickard can play better, but only to a certain level. Neither is capable of stealing games regularly. The goalies making a few more stops will help, but the main area Edmonton can improve more is their defensive coverage.

They’ve proven they can be better defensively. They’ve ranked in the top 1o each of the past two seasons. Playing sound defensively is based on hard work and commitment. You have to commit to making the right plays regularly. Make the right decision with the puck. Get good positioning in front of the net and tie up the offensive player’s stick. Win battles in the corner. Don’t make low percentage passes, hoping for an offensive rush chance. The players can do this.

The coaches need to demand more from their players. History shows us that assistant coaches who are promoted to head coach often struggle. Some can have success, but historically, it has been hard. I wonder if that is part of the equation with Mark Stuart. He was on the staff and oversaw the penalty kill, but now he’s the main man running the defence. Can he crack the whip when necessary? Is his messaging being heard? Ultimately, Kris Knoblauch is the head coach, and he is the one who decides on ice time and situational play for players. The coaches have to become more of the solution.

General Manager Stan Bowman decided to return both Skinner and Pickard. It clearly isn’t working, so the onus is on him to find a replacement. Connor Ingram has made six starts with Bakersfield. He’s had two quality starts, one good start and three rough ones. His last two starts were classified as good and a quality start. Bakersfield only has three more games this month, including back-to-back this weekend, so he likely will have two more starts before the end of the month. If both are good, maybe he’s an option for a December recall — maybe even earlier, but if the Oilers are still leaking chances defensively at the tune they are now, will Ingram be able to save the day? That’s a big ask for a guy who hasn’t played an NHL game since last February, and last season in 22 appearances, he posted an .882Sv% and 3.27 GAA. Hoping he can ride in on a white Stallion and save the day could easily turn a fairytale story into a horror film if their defensive struggles remain.

Bowman has to look everywhere. Matt Murray, the third goalie in Seattle, could have been an option, but he got hurt last week and is now out for six weeks. Buffalo is carrying three goalies with Colten Ellis, Ukko-Pekka Luukonen and Alex Lyon. They claimed Ellis on waivers earlier this year, and he’s started the last three games, but he allowed six last night in his third straight start. Would they consider trading Luukonen or Lyon? Lyon has started 12 games for them and posted solid numbers, while Luukonen has had his own struggles. He has this year plus three more at $4.725m. Edmonton doesn’t have the cap room to acquire him, unless they move out other pieces, and right now, he has many questions about his game.

There is no obvious answer. The Juuse Saros rumours don’t make much sense. I’d be stunned Nashville would want to retain a high percentage of his cap hit for seven years. Maybe $1.5m of it, but the more they retain, the more you have to give up, making it worth their while. I don’t see how he’s a realistic option, but it is Bowman’s job to strengthen the goaltending, so he has to find one.

— Brett Kulak is noticeably struggling. He is fighting the puck. He is hesitating and allowing guys to beat him. It is obvious he’s lacking confidence. In 10 games this month, he’s been outscored 15-0 at 5×5. Last night, the Capitals scored a goal on each of Kulak’s first three shifts of the game. On the first goal, Tom Wilson beat him to the net with good positioning and banged home the rebound. On the second goal, Kulak lost the puck battle behind the net, play continued, and Alex Ovechkin deflected a point shot to make it 2-0. The third goal was a broken play as the puck bounced off an unsuspecting Ty Emberson’s stick (it was hard to see if Draisaitl tried passing it to him, or if the puck just ricocheted) on the right boards and right onto the stick of Ryan Leonard who had speed and Kulak was caught in a rough spot (through no real fault of his own) and Leonard was able to walk in and score.

Kulak was on the ice for 2:31 in his first three shifts and was -3. He finished the game with 11:28 at 5×5, and he was outshot 8-2 and outscored 3-0. In the other 39:45 of 5×5 play, Edmonton outshot Washington 25-11 and outscored them 3-2. I’ve never seen Kulak struggle like this since he arrived in Edmonton on March 22nd, 2021. He’s been very consistent, but this is easily his worst stretch, and Knoblauch will have to look at giving Kulak a “reset” in-game if the struggles continue.

— David Tomášek showed some great hands on his third-period goal. His goal, along with Darnell Nurse’s second goal, came with the third and fourth lines on the ice. It was their first 5×5 goals of the month and much-needed for a team struggling for 5×5 offence.

— Through 22 games last season, the Oilers had allowed 69 goals and 46 at 5×5. This year, they’ve allowed 80 overall and 58 at 5×5. Allowing 2.63 goals against/game at 5×5 is awful. Last season, the Chicago Blackhawks allowed the most 5×5 goals with 207. That was an average of 2.52/game.

Here is a quick look at the Oilers’ GA/GP averages for the past decade:

Sitting at 2.63/GP right now is inexcusable. The Oilers’ GA/60 at 5×5 is 3.11 as a team, which ranks 29th in the NHL.

— Here’s a look at each player’s GA/60 at 5×5 this season.

Draisaitl has the lowest, while playing the fifth-most minutes 5×5. Darnell Nurse has logged the most minutes 5×5 and has the fourth lowest GA/60, while Evan Bouchard has the fifth lowest. I find some people use GF% when ranking overall play, but that includes offensive numbers, and whichever D pairing plays more with McDavid and/or Draisaitl have a better GF%, because they will be on the ice for more goals scored. I’m not suggesting Nurse has played great, far from it, as the team has struggled. I’d like Nurse to be more assertive, especially physically, and his passing is still an issue, but in terms of goals against, which impact the game more than shots against, he’s been much better at limiting them compared to Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak and Jake Walman. Those three are all in the top-seven TOI/GP, and they’ve been on for too many goals against.

— If you use GF% for 5×5, consider teammates. For example. Nurse has played 48 minutes with both McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice, then an additional 79 minutes with McDavid and 91 minutes with Draisaitl. A total of 208 minutes with them, and he’s played 198 minutes without either. Bouchard has played 113 with both, 106 with McDavid and 78 with Draisaitl for a total of 287 minutes, and he’s skated 88 minutes without either of them.

Bouchard has played 88 of 385 minutes (22.8%) without McDavid or Draisaitl

Nurse has logged 198 of 406 minutes (48.7%) without them.

Bouchard should and has been on the ice for more goals scored, although not by a lot (17-15). He’s been on for 18 GA while Nurse is at 19. Both need to be on for fewer goals against, as 2.73/60 and 2.79/60 are still too high. Many of their teammates have struggled equally as much, and in many cases, more. This is why Edmonton ranks 29th in GAA and GA/60.

— After his two goals last night, Nurse is tied with Cale Makar and Zach Werenski for the league lead in 5×5 goals with five. The rest of the Oilers’ defence has combined for four. Makar has five goals on only 25 shots, while Werenski has 48 shots and Nurse has 49. But note that Edmonton has played three more games than Colorado and two more than Columbus.

The skaters remain the same, and I’m expecting Calvin Pickard to start. The Oilers have two games remaining on their seven-game road trip and need to find a way to at least win one of the final two road games. They are 1-8 in Tampa Bay in the McDavid/Draisaitl era. Their only win came on November 8th, 2022, when Jack Campbell stopped 35 of 37 shots in a 3-2 win. They’ve been outscored 36-17 in their eight losses. Ouch.

Victor Hedman was moved to IR today, so they could activate Nick Paul off of LTIR. Paul will play with Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point. Point has had a slow start with only 3-8-11 in 18 games, but he does have points in the past two games, and Tampa is hopeful he’s emerging from his early-season funk.

Tampa’s blueline has four defenders with fewer than 200 games of experience in Darren Raddysh (182), Emil Lilleberg (132), Steven Santini (125) and Charle-Edouard D’Astous (12). With no Hedman or McDonagh, this could be Edmonton’s best chance in the last decade to get a win over Tampa Bay.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Edmonton’s struggles in Tampa continue. Oilers lose 5-3.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Nikita Kucherov scores a goal. He has 13 goals in 18 career games vs. the Oilers. That is his highest goal/game rate (0.72) against any NHL team.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: David Tomášek scores in consecutive games.