They’ve never met in the playoffs, yet both fanbases dislike one another, and any time the Maple Leafs and Oilers play, the hype leading up to the games is higher than most opponents. I think it’s awesome. Sports are better where there are rivals or villains.

Oilersnation’s annoyance with Leafsnation has heightened considerably since Connor McDavid was drafted. They’ve had to hear from fans, and many national media outlets about how McDavid would eventually play for Toronto. Eleven years later, it hasn’t happened, and most Oilers fans chuckle about the continuing suggestions, although the annoyance seems to simmer in certain places in Oilersnation.

Leafsnation, along with TSN and Sportsnet, tried to fuel the flames by making McDavid vs. Auston Matthews comparisons. When Matthews won the Hart trophy in 2022, the comparisons intensified. It became a rivalry amongst fans, and even the teams, despite them rarely playing. It was great theatre, but the comparison was proven to be false. Matthews is a very good goal scorer, but he isn’t in the same category as McDavid. It doesn’t mean Matthews isn’t good — he just isn’t McDavid, and frankly, never has been over a long period of time.

I still remember when I went on Leafs Lunch in 2023 and suggested the real comparison was Leon Draisaitl and Matthews. I was a bit surprised at the reaction from fans and even some media members. It angered many, but I thought then, and I still do now, that Draisaitl was better, due to his all-around game, and three years later, he’s shown to be a more consistent player. Injuries have hampered Matthews, which is unfortunate, because the league is better when the best players are healthy.

Mitch Marner departing Toronto hasn’t worked out well for Toronto on the ice, and it also has quieted down the “local boy wants to play in his hometown” angle that was used when referring to McDavid returning to the Centre of the Universe. McDavid grew up a Leafs fan. He even spoke about watching Mats Sundin and Darcy Tucker in a recent article in the Players’ Tribune. I understand why Leafs fans and Toronto media wished openly that McDavid would sign there. He’s the most exciting player in the game, any fanbase or city would want him, but he wants to win, and right now, Toronto isn’t close to winning.

But that doesn’t mean the atmosphere in the building tonight won’t be electric. Leafsnation will show up by the thousands. The building will be 40 per cent Toronto fans, and almost every one of them will be wearing a Leafs jersey. Oilers fans will want to protect “their house” and drown out the “Go Leafs Go” chants. The building is much louder when Toronto and Montreal come to town, but the animosity between Oilers and Leafs fans has always been higher than it is between Edmonton and Montreal. Oilers fans can be extremely loud and boisterous when they want to be, and the past few seasons I’ve noticed them being much more vocal when Toronto is in town. I expect the same tonight.

Both teams need the win. Toronto sits in 12th place in the Eastern Conference with 61 points (they are tied in points with Columbus and Ottawa, but those teams are ahead due to fewer GP), and they are seven points back of Boston for the second Wildcard spot. Last season after 56 games, Montreal was in 13th place, six points out of the second Wildcard spot, and they managed to make the playoffs. The Maple Leafs players still believe they can make it. They defeated Vancouver on Saturday and won last night in Calgary. Hope can be very powerful, and they will not just hand the Oilers the game.

Edmonton is tied with Vegas for first place in the Pacific Division, but Vegas has one game in hand. The Oilers are only three points ahead of Seattle and Anaheim and four points ahead of L.A., who sits in ninth place in the Western Conference. Edmonton can’t afford to hand games away. They are the most rested team tonight. The Oilers have been at home for 15 days. The Maple Leafs are playing their third game in four nights and the second half of a back-to-back. Edmonton has the “scheduling advantage,” and they need to be ready.

The building will be loud. Both fanbases will be vocal. Oilers fans will have the luxury of watching an extended pregame show on TV, as TSN and Sportsnet always dedicate a lot of time to Toronto games. They might even mention the Oilers (kidding, kind of). These games rarely disappoint. They’ve been fast, with lots of scoring chances and goals. Each team has scored 28 goals in the last seven games. Toronto is 4-3 in that span, while Edmonton is 3-3-1, and tonight the Oilers will look to do something they haven’t done since the 1989 season and only the second time in franchise history: sweep the season series.

SNAPSHOTS…

— McDavid shared his thoughts in a Players’ Tribune article yesterday discussing the upcoming Olympics, but he also shared a lot about his time in Edmonton. From his early days being named captain, to the heart-breaking Stanley Cup Final losses. The following two excerpts give you an insight into his mindset.

I’m 11 years into my career. Of course, I think about my legacy. I want to be remembered as a winner. But not just anywhere. Here. To be in this city during a Cup run, to feel that buzz … it just wouldn’t be the same somewhere else.
I think there’s this narrative that we’re this unlucky, troubled team. The end result hasn’t been there, but it’s not easy getting to two straight Cup Finals. We really pride ourselves on being good playoff performers, and our room knows what we’re capable of. I believe in this group. If I didn’t, I wouldn’t have signed my extension.
Because, if I can be real here for a second, I just want to win something again.
That’s what was so incredible about the 4 Nations last year. When I pulled on my jersey for the final against the U.S., I remembered that it had been eight years since that World Championship gold medal in Moscow. That was the last time I celebrated winning something. Eight years. And so that game against the U.S. in Boston last year … it meant so many different things to me. Representing Canada means everything to me. With not being able to play at the Olympics until this season, it’s been this part of me that’s been missing. Some of my favorite hockey memories ever are with a Canada jersey on. Or even just watching as a fan.

Later in the article he spoke about his focus and determination.

I remember one year, I was like 11 or 12, and we won like 50 games during a season and lost one.
On the car ride home, I cried my eyes out to my dad.
Looking back, of course, it seems ridiculous now. But I remember the pain of losing, and how at times it felt so much worse than the joy of winning. And if I’m honest, I still struggle with that. It’s something I’ve tried to work on a lot these past few seasons. When we lose a game, whether it’s game one of 82 or game 3 of a playoff series, it’s a big deal here. Like I said, I welcome that pressure. But as a player, as a leader, I can’t get too high or too low. And so how do you have fun in an environment like that? I don’t have that answer right now. Sometimes the regular season feels like a grind. I think you’ve seen it in our play this year, in my play. I’m not always proud of that, but I want to be honest here. Because what I can also say is that our room is working really hard. We’re trying to win and have fun and be the team we know we can be. Coach is always telling me to relax, and I don’t always listen to that as much as I should.
There’s a part of me that feels like I shouldn’t relax until we win, or that I shouldn’t write stuff like this until then. But I think it’s important to not be afraid of the scars we have and how close we came. I think it’s important, as a captain, to be a human, and not just a hockey robot. I wish more than anything those finals went another way. It sucks. There’s no other way to put it. It breaks my heart. But the only option you have is to use it as fuel for the fire, and show up the next day to the rink determined to get better.

It is a solid read. Here is the complete article.

— Toronto is 14-7-5 when scoring first and 12-14-4 when allowing the first goal. They rank 30th in winning percentage when scoring first, but they have the sixth-best win percentage when allowing the first goal. Edmonton is 22-2-4 when scoring first (fifth-best W%), but they are 6-18-4 when allowing the first goal (27th in W%). Oddly enough, in their last three games the Oilers lost when scoring first (Minnesota), but defeated San Jose and Anaheim when allowing the first goal. If they score first tonight, they can’t sit back as Toronto has shown a strong ability to get back in games when allowing the first goal.

— Leon Draisaitl’s next point will move him ahead of Mark Messier (1,034) on the Oilers all-time point list. Draisaitl will pass Jari Kurri (1,043) later this season and then sit third behind McDavid (1,177) and Wayne Gretzky (1,669). Draisaitl passed Nicklas Lidstrom, Doug Weight and Martin St. Louis on the NHL’s all-time scoring list on Saturday. He’s now 87th all-time, and if he maintains his current 1.47 points/game pace the rest of this season, he will move ahead of all players in this ranking and be 74th. He’s only 30 and already passing many Hall of Fame players. Impressive.

— Odd stat that might only interest me: Trent Frederic has two goals this season. Both of his goals were the first goal of the game in New York and Tampa Bay. Only nine other Oilers players have scored the opening goal of the game this season. Frederic doesn’t have a goal in 31 games and doesn’t have a point in 25. His last home goal in Edmonton was on May 1st against L.A. in the opening round of the playoffs. He could desperately use a goal or point tonight or tomorrow before the break. He needs to use the break as a complete refresher. Come back and focus solely on having a solid final 24 games.

— The Oilers need to defend better than they have in the past five games, and they know it. I asked Mattias Ekholm about the ugly 25 goals against in the last five games.

“We know it’s not been good enough defensively, obviously, we’ve been rolling pretty good offensively. And I’ve been on teams where you’ve been opposite, where you are pretty good defensively, but you can’t seem to find goals. And that’s, in my opinion, a lot harder than finding your defence. I’m not saying it’s easy, but I’m saying it’s a lot between the ears. I think it’s a lot about just putting an emphasis on it, respecting it. I feel like a lot of the games lately; we’ve scored four or five or six or whatever. And then you’re thinking like, well, one or two or three (against) doesn’t really matter because we’re going to score so many anyways. But it doesn’t work that way every night.
“So, I think it’s a mental thing for us. I think it’s just to a man, we got to emphasize and understand how important it is. And especially, as you said, come playoff time, we’ve shown it, but it’s not like you can push a button when that time comes around. We have two more games here. Great opportunity to start it and then get some rest and come back and hopefully figure it out how we do want to be know how we want to play. It’s a matter of executing.”

— Ekholm did add one additional thought about the mental side of defending.

“We’ve played a lot of hockey this regular season. It’s a lot of hockey and the toughest part when you play a lot of games is getting emotionally up for every single battle. That’s just what it is. It’s a human nature. It’s the same for everybody though, and some teams seem to be playing pretty good defence, so we can’t use it as an excuse, but I think it’s somewhat of a reason. At least that is the way I feel about it. It’s been tough to get up every single night for the emotional battle, because you can look at the X’s and O’s of our defence, but as long as you don’t play with competitiveness, or you don’t play with that edge, you know that oomph and physicality, they’re gonna run you down.”

His original point about being on teams who can defend but can’t score. compared to a team that can score makes a lot of sense. The hardest thing to do in hockey is score, and Edmonton can score. Defending is more of a dedicated commitment, and the Oilers haven’t had it regularly this year. They had a long stretch where they were pretty good defensively. They had a 25-game stretch from December 1st to January 21st where they had the third lowest GAA at 2.56. They’ve shown they can buckle down in the playoffs as well. Right now it isn’t there, but they’d like to start to get back to that. The past 10 days have been much different than the previous 52, and they need to find their defensive competitiveness again.

Tonight is an easier game to get up for due to the crowd noise, so they should have no shortage of emotion or competitiveness.

LINEUPS…

Oilers…

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Savoie – Samanski – Roslovic
Janmark – Frederic– Mangiapane

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Walman
Stastney – Emberson

Ingram

The Oilers are 3-2 in their last five games despite allowing 25 goals. Their offence has been really good, but they need to tighten up defensively.

“We have to defend better. We are making it too hard on our goalies,” McDavid.

Maple Leafs…

McMann – Matthews – Domi
Maccelli – Tavares – Nylander
Knies – Roy – Robertson
Lorentz – Laughton – Jarnkrok

McCabe – Carlo
Ekman-Larsson – Stecher
Benoit – Myers

Stolarz

Morgan Rielly didn’t play last night in Calgary, but he’s a possibility for tonight. If he plays, Myers likely comes out. I’ve seen and read Bobby McMann’s name in possible trade candidates for the Oilers. As for late last week, Maple Leafs GM, Brad Treliving had told opposing GMs he wasn’t thinking about being a seller. However, that could change after the Olympic break depending how things shake out for Toronto. Tonight is their final game before the break, while Buffalo plays Tampa tonight and in Pittsburgh on Thursday and Boston plays Florida tomorrow. Best case scenario for Toronto is they are five points out of a playoff spot when they emerge from the Olympic break, but worst case they are 10+ points back.

Treliving has tonight and six games post Olympics to decide what direction he will go on March 6th. If he is a seller, McMann could be available, and the Oilers would have interest. He’s a big body (215 pounds), with great speed and he already has 18 goals and is on pace for 26. He’s not a big play maker, but he’d be a complementary top six forward. He’s a pending UFA, and his $1.35m cap hit makes him very enticing for teams to fit under the cap this season.

William Nylander has 15 points in his last eight games. He was flying last night in Calgary and the Oilers need to be sound defensively when he’s on the ice.

TONIGHT…

GDB 57 Edmonton Oilers Kasperi Kapanen Toronto Maple Leafs

Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The crowd is loud, the teams combine to score 7+ goals, and Edmonton wins 5-3 with an empty net goal.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid picks up his 60th point since December 1st.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Frederic scores his fifth career goal v. Toronto, which ties his career high v. one organization (NYR is the other).