As they enter the final quarter of the season, the Edmonton Oilers are in a battle with Vegas for first place in the Pacific Division, and they need to make home ice more of an advantage for them.

The Oilers are tied with Colorado for the 12th-best home record in the NHL at 18-10-2. Decent, but not good enough, and they will need to be better at home if they want to catch Vegas. The Golden Knights have the second-best home record in the league at 22-6-3 and they have 10 home games remaining while the Oilers have 11. A win tonight against the Ducks needs to happen.

The Oilers haven’t played a home game since February 7th. The 4 Nations break followed by a five-game road trip is why the Oilers will hear their fans for the first time in 25 days. And they need to give them something to cheer about. Edmonton hasn’t won at home since January 27th. A 3-2 SO loss to Detroit on January 30th, followed by a 4-3 loss to Toronto on February 1st and a 5-4 loss to Colorado on the 7th has the Oilers riding their second three-game home losing skid of the season. They opened this season with home losses to Winnipeg, Chicago and Calgary.

The Oilers had the second-best home record in the NHL last season. Earlier this year, between November 12th to January 27th, they went 16-3 at home and outscored teams 71-44. They’ve had long stretches of being a dominant home team and need to get back on track tonight.

The Anaheim Ducks aren’t the easy pushover they were earlier in the season. They are 8-3-1 in their last 12 games. They’ve won games due to their 5×5 play outscoring teams 27-20. However, their special teams are still bad. Their PP is anemic at 10.3% while their PK is 74.3%. They did defeat Dallas and LA as well as Vancouver and Boston.

The Oilers need to try and carry the momentum from their victory in Carolina. They reduced the glaring giveaways and odd-man rushes. The Oilers played sloppy hockey for almost a month until they improved in Florida and then performed even better in Carolina.

Edmonton has 11 home games remaining vs. Anaheim, Montreal, Dallas, Utah, Winnipeg, Seattle, Dallas, Calgary, St. Louis, San Jose, and LA. They should win at least eight of them if they want to finish first in the Pacific Division. They can’t afford a loss to the Ducks.

Edmonton is 11-2 vs. the Ducks over the past five seasons and 6-1 on home ice. Tonight needs to be a win — and should be one.

— I spoke with Matt Savoie yesterday. He was very excited about possibly playing his first game in Edmonton. “Many of my buddies go to the U of A and over a month ago they bought some student tickets to tonight’s game. No one knew I’d be playing so it’s great they will be here. I hope I get to play.”

He will be playing, and his parents will be in attendance as well as some relatives and many of his good friends. It will be a fun night for them all.

— Young defenseman Jackson Lacombe is coming into his own for the Ducks. He has 3-7-10 in his last 12 games and is playing over 23 minutes a game. At 5×5 the Ducks have outscored opponents 10-5 with him on the ice, including 2-0 vs. Elite competition and 8-2 vs. Middle. In those 161 minutes his GF-GA is 10-2. Oddly, in 43 minutes against lesser competition, he’s been outscored 3-0. He’s been facing the opposition’s best players and done very well.

— It is wild, but Connor McDavid doesn’t have a 5×5 point in 10 games. He admitted he was a bit tired after the 4 Nations but was quick to point out he needs to play better. He hadn’t slept in his bed for over three weeks, and anyone who travels knows that even after the best holiday, there is something special about coming home to your own bed. McDavid has had three sleeps at home and is feeling refreshed. It is also March, and McDavid’s best month of the season, historically, has always been March.

— McDavid has 207 points in 123 career games in March. He’s played more games in March and has the highest P%.

October: 1.47 PPG in 88 GP.
November: 1.47 PPG in 112 GP.
December: 1.47 PPG in 105 GP.
January: 1.38 PPG in 98 GP.
February: 1.47 PPG in 114 GP.
March: 1.68 PPG in 123 GP.
April: 1.54 PPG in 51 GP.

Look for him to heat up this month.

— Leon Draisaitl needs one goal to tie Mark Messier (392) for fourth-most regular season goals as an Oiler. Messier played 851 games for the Oilers and tonight is Draisaitl’s 780th game.

— Draisaitl is currently tied with Dean Prentice, Marty St. Louis and Jean Pronovost for 121st most goals in NHL history. Nine more goals will make him the 111th player to 400 (I’m assuming Jamie Benn scores two before Draisaitl scores nine to be the 11oth player, but if not Draisaitl will be 110th). Currently only 48 players have 500 career goals. Patrick Kane (486) and John Tavares (480) will be the 49th and 50th, and Draisaitl will likely reach 500 goals near the end of the 2027 season. Even with a cautious 35 goal/season pace in the final six years of his contract, Draisaitl is tracking to become only the ninth player to score 700 goals.

What I find most remarkable about his goal scoring is that he’s also an elite passer. Not many players are truly elite at both. Brett Hull, Alex Ovechkin, Mike Gartner all scored 700 goals, but didn’t have the play making abilities of Draisaitl. Draisaitl is the best backhand passer in the NHL right now, and he’s among the best distributors alongside McDavid, Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon. But he’s a better goal scorer than those three.

— I like Trent Frederic. He won’t play for a bit, so that isn’t ideal, but the Oilers desperately needed a player like him. When he’s ready to play, I’d slot him beside Leon Draisaitl. He’s physical, a good forechecker and has decent hands. Could he get hot like Patrick Maroon did when he arrived and played with McDavid? Maroon had a career high 11 goals before joining the Oilers. He scored eight goals in 16 games to end the 2016 season and then scored 27 goals the following year (24 at 5×5) and had 14 in 57 games before being traded. Frederic has already had seasons with 18 and 17 goals. It wouldn’t be crazy to think he could score 20-25 in a full season with Draisaitl.

He’s big (6’3″, 220) and plays a hard game. If he doesn’t re-sign then the trade won’t look as good, no question. Giving up Max Wanner, Shane Lachance, a second-round pick, and a fourth-round pick for Frederic, Max Jones, and prospect Petr Hauser won’t be nearly as appealing if Frederic is just a rental.

— Max Jones is a project/wildcard. He was the 24th pick in 2016. He’s big at 6’3″, 215 and can skate. And he was a regular with Anaheim from 2021-2024. Last season NHL Edge had his top speed as 22.96 mph which put him in the 86th percentile among NHL forwards. He also had 132 bursts of 20+ mph which ranked in the 82nd percentile. He has spent much of this season in the AHL. Boston opted to play Justin Brazeau up over him. Can Jones be an NHLer again? We’ll see. If he does, then the trade looks much better. He’s never been a penalty killer in the NHL, and that will make it hard for him to get in the mix in Edmonton.

Calvin Pickard starts consecutive regular season games for the first time as an Oiler. He did start consecutive games against Vancouver in the playoffs last May. Pickard gets rewarded for a very good game vs. Carolina, while Stuart Skinner gets a few more days of practice time, and we’ll see how he responds on Thursday.

Jeff Skinner healthy scratched again. I suspect the Oilers will try to move him before Friday. With Frederic coming in, the left side becomes even more congested.

Darnell Nurse returns to the lineup and Brett Kulak is expected to play after missing yesterday with an illness.

The Cutter Gauthier-Mason McTavish combo is one the Ducks hope becomes a threat. Both are big, strong players. McTavish has 11 points in his last 12 games, while Gauthier has five goals.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers continue their dominance over Anaheim and win 5-3.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers score a power play goal.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Vasily Podkolzin scores his first goal in 17 games and his first goal at home since November 23rd.