The Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights are separated by one point with 10 games remaining.

They are battling for second place in the Pacific Division, as Anaheim has a five-point lead on Edmonton with a game in hand. If the Ducks go 5-5-1 in their last 11 games, Edmonton needs to go 8-2 to pass them, so right now, it looks like second place is the most likely spot where the Oilers will finish the season, and having home ice advantage against Vegas (or L.A.) would be beneficial.

Both teams are looking for more consistent goaltending. In March, Vegas goalies have allowed 35 goals on 275 shots for a .872 save percentage (Sv%) while Edmonton goalies have allowed 38 goals on 285 shots (.866 Sv%).  Vegas is allowing a league-low 21.1 shots against per game in March, and if you compare the numbers of the Oilers’ goalies to Vegas’ netminders, it is clear Vegas has a bigger issue.

Courtesy of Clear Sight Analytics, the Oilers rank 26th in expected goals against at five-on-five this season, while Vegas ranks third. In actual goals against, Edmonton is 31st, and Vegas is 26th. Edmonton going from 26th in expected to 31st in actual isn’t ideal, but it is much better than going from third to 26th. The Oilers’ main issue is that they need to reduce the quality chances they are giving up and give their goalies a better environment. That doesn’t give the goalie a free pass, but the challenge for Vegas is that it is difficult to defend much better than they have been. Their goalies have to make saves, and right now they aren’t, so the Oilers need to add to their struggles.

Where Edmonton can have success is around the net. Vegas has allowed the most rebound goals in the NHL over the past 20 games. Trent Frederic opened the scoring in Vegas on March 8th when he hammered home a rebound opportunity. The Golden Knights are in the midst of one of their worst stretches in franchise history. They have the lowest P% in March at .308 with an ugly record of 4-9. They’ve been outscored 39-26. Not only are their goalies struggling, but their forwards are also fighting it with a league-worst 2.00 goals scored per game.

Pavel Dorofeyev has four goals in the last seven games, but the other 11 forwards have six combined. Tomas Hertl has no points in his last nine games. Mark Stone has no goals in seven games since returning from injury. Jack Eichel has two points in his last seven games and only six points in March. Dorofeyev and Mitch Marner are the only skilled forwards producing right now. Vegas has scored five goals in its last five games and been shut out twice. The Oilers need to play similar to how they did in Utah on Tuesday. They didn’t give up much and limited their turnovers. The only time Utah had extended Ozone time was when the Oilers didn’t bear down on their clearing attempts and allowed Utah to maintain the zone.

The Oilers are a quicker team, much quicker, and they should win more races to pucks and put pressure on Vegas in all three zones.

The Oilers have 500+ more bursts of 20-22 mph than Vegas and their top bursts of 22+ mph are 219-58. Edmonton has won eight of the last nine meetings v. Vegas (including playoffs), and since the 2022/23 season the Oilers are 8-4 on the road in Vegas. They’ve had a lot of success on the road recently and will look to continue that tonight. Edmonton and Vegas each have 10 games remaining and they play each other twice in the next 10 days. Those two games will play a big role in which team starts the playoffs on home ice.

— One area Edmonton has improved recently is their rebound goals against. The Oilers have allowed the most in the NHL at 29, however, they’ve only allowed five in their last 20 games and two in their last 10. The Oilers allowed 24 in their first 52 games of the season but have been much better at protecting the front of the net lately. Getting good body position and tying up sticks must continue.

— Vegas has allowed the third most rebound goals against with 24, and as I outlined earlier, they’ve allowed the most over the past 20 games. The Oilers need bodies around the net tonight.

— McDavid became the 54th player to reach 1,200 points on Tuesday. He needs 11 points to move into 50th place all-time ahead of Dino Ciccarelli (1,200), Vincent Damphousse (1,205), Bernie Nicholls (1,209) and Bobby Clarke (1,210). McDavid is the third quickest to 1,200 points, needing only 784 games, and he will be third to 1,300, 1,400, 1,500, 1,600 and 1,700. He will likely be the second fastest to 1,800, as Mario Lemieux never reached that mark. I wrote a few years ago that I thought McDavid would reach 2,000 points, and I’m more convinced now than I was then. Next year will be McDavid’s 29-year-old season and if he averages 100 points for the next three seasons, which is very doable, then from age 32-38 (seven seasons) he would need to produce 500 points, which is an average of 71 points/season. I believe 2,000 is a lock, and he could push to upwards of 2,200 points.

— Ryan Nugent-Hopkins picked up his 800th career point with an assist on Jack Roslovic’s first period goal in Utah. Kris Letang also picked up his 800th point Tuesday night and they are tied with Ken Hodge for 196th all time. The one they call “Nuge” will for sure finish his career in the top 150 scorers of all time and realistically he’ll probably been in the 110-125 range. Impressive. He is the seventh Oiler to score 800 points in Orange and Blue.

— Tonight’s game features the top three players in high-danger shots on goal. Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman and Tomas Hertl are all within one shot of each other and are three of the only four players in the NHL with 100+ high danger shots.

McDavid has 40 goals while Hyman has 29 and Hertl has 24. Hyman and Hertl thrive around the net while McDavid creates his scoring chances with his speed and agility, but both styles lead to numerous chances.

— I outlined earlier how much quicker the Oilers are than Vegas and some will say it is only due to McDavid. No doubt he’s a major factor as his 127 bursts of 22+ mph are easily the most in the NHL, but if you removed McDavid from the Oilers, they’d still have 92 bursts of 22+ mph, which would rank seventh in the NHL. Don’t underestimate the speed of the Oilers. Jack Roslovic has 17, Leon Draisaitl (12), Vasily Podkolzin (8), Kasperi Kapanen (7), Matt Savoie (6) and Darnell Nurse (5). Vegas only has two players with more than three in Jack Eichel (23) and Brett Howden (8). Max Jones has four and he’s only played 13 games.

— Here’s a look at the entire league, split into each conference and I ranked them based on 20-22 mph bursts.

Colorado is the fastest team and the Oilers are second. The Calgary Flames are the slowest team in the NHL, by a significant margin. GM Craig Conroy should look at adding some players with speed over the next few seasons.

— Evan Bouchard tied his career high of 82 points last game courtesy of a tidy three-assist game. Bouchard is having a career year in every sense. He’s already set a new high in goals with 19. He needs two more assists to set a new high with 65 and his next point will be his 83rd. He is on pace for 93 points. Only 12 defensemen have scored 90+ points in a season and Bouchard is poised to become the 13th and join Paul Coffey (7x), Bobby Orr (6x), Ray Bourque (4x), Denis Potvin (3x), Al MacInnis and Cale Makar (2x), and Phil Housley, Quinn Hughes, Roman Josi, Erik Karlsson, Brian Leetch and Gary Suter (1x). The only active D-men with more than 93 points are Josi (96) and Karlsson (101).

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Oilers win two in a row for the 13th time this season picking up another 4-2 victory in Vegas.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid picks up his 800th career assist while Bouchard establishes a new career high in points.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Mattias Ekholm scores his first goal in 19 games and his first since notching his first career hat trick against Anaheim on January 26th.